Predicting a MARKET CRASH Q1-3 by analyzing AAPL

[Mr. Crabs]

Look at the 10 year chart just in relation to the price per share, the AAPL chart for this past quarter is eerily reminiscent of what it looked like in 2008 right before the major recession. IF history repeats itself again with another crash this year following the fiscal cliff, it will not be reminiscent to a 2008 crash as much as a 1991 crash, the one that followed the 1980's crash (which did actually resemble the 2008 crash) with a much more mellow stability creating correction. :cheesy:

Something is happening with the markets, they are in a major transitional phase according to hypotheses that can be deduced by looking at the basic charts as well as indicators, indices, etc... I went through some of the most major tells I could find in the market, I will be going through them as I see fit.

First and foremost, I would like to point out something somewhat obvious - that AAPL shadows the market on a macro-scale. Considering the deep pocketed investors who influence AAPL are among the most "in the know" people of the world I am quite confidence in this assertion.

The charts in AAPL make it obvious we've encountered a mod-term down-trend. An obvious question is if traders and investors alike are cashing out on profits (and/or cutting losses, holding up the PPS for them to trade and exit positions and short sell as well), or accumulating and creating another wave of $$$ for traders and investors to ride. :!:
My opinion is (generally I have good foresight) not exactly conclusive at the moment, considering we are in the transitional phase. I will let the evidence speak to itself, minor a few details that you can review yourself in the future if you please, I would share your skepticism. :|

I'll start off with the basics of what is happening with AAPL stock as of now, just by looking at the charts.
- Price support at $500 may be vital, we have been hovering above it for almost 6 months. The price of AAPL hasn't been this cheap since we exited the recession.
- We appear to be building support near YTD lows on more solid ground but I predict that is just an illusion.
- MACD appears to be instigating an upcoming run, but appearances are just appearances, and currently the MACD is in a very inconclusive transition phase.

I did a bit more digging to see what my indicators alluded to, and I got many tidbits supporting my case that the current downtrend will continue through the mod-term.
- The short volume ratio increased sharply in November during our most recent bounce, as short-volume tends to do after a bounce, but as of now it is searching for support near the lowest price we have seen in years while the short volume ratio continues to stay elevated.
- SRSI illustrates that we are OVERBOUGHT despite being searching for support near the lowest price AAPL has seen in years.
- Stochastic Oscillator made a very bearish signal :idea: (I dubbed it the fake out rip) this month in my opinion, but I have been wrong before. :innocent:

If my prediction that AAPL breaks support is proven correct, then that may impact the market enough to send the DJIA down as well, everything seems to be signaling a storm is brewing, and it may be raining bears some time soon. :?:

I looked up a few more basic macro-market indicators to support my assumptions and thought I'd share it with you.

- Silver and gold appear to be coiling for a bounce, I would expect it too considering it's drastically undervalued ATM. I'm looking at some options for the NUGT Direxion DLY gold bull 3x. Calling long - shots. :clover:
- DJIA looks to be standing on the edge of a radical downward slope. :?:
- Direxion bear index appears to have bottomed out to continue an uptrend, while the bull appears to have topped out soon to decline into a recession.

It seems obvious to me we're in for a recession.

This is my first serious post up here peoples and I am a bit proud of it, what do y'all think? I'll elaborate on it some more on some other boards too, I really want to see what you peoples have to say about that fiscal cliff scare, I think there is more too it than fear mongering.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Thank you to anyone who gets through all that, that was more bulk text than I expected.

 

[Joules MM1]

Thank you to anyone who gets through all that, that was more bulk text than I expected.

good luck with the journey

 

[Mr. Crabs]

good luck with the journey

Very funny.

 

[wackypete2]

I mostly agree with where you are going with all that, but I see it in a much simpler light...The current rise in equities markets has been with decreasing volume. There's only one way that will end and it's down hard with enormous volume. Time frame is hard to predict but you offer a fairly wide Q1 to Q3. I'd say Q2-Q3.

Have a happy and prosperous New Year!

Peter

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I mostly agree with where you are going with all that, but I see it in a much simpler light...The current rise in equities markets has been with decreasing volume. There's only one way that will end and it's down hard with enormous volume. Time frame is hard to predict but you offer a fairly wide Q1 to Q3. I'd say Q2-Q3.

Have a happy and prosperous New Year!

Peter

Right on you too.

 

[Vicorka]

There are many factors and AAPL is not a barometer of the market... DJIA does not reflect the market as good as S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Base it on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 then I will read it

 

[Mr. Crabs]

There are many factors and AAPL is not a barometer of the market... DJIA does not reflect the market as good as S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Base it on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 then I will read it

Show some common sense Vicorka, the fact of the matter is the biggest sums of money invested in apple are invested by the most wealthy individual investors in the world, these people have a better sense of the market than anyone else and if anyone is capable of predicting (or orchestrating) market corrections it is them.

Thanks for the tip but I personally think AAPL is a sufficient indicator in predicting the macro markets at this point in time.

Big money cashing out for long-term profits, I may be looking at AAPL exclusively but obviously this is happening in the rest of the market as well.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

There are many factors and AAPL is not a barometer of the market... DJIA does not reflect the market as good as S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Base it on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 then I will read it

By the way I'm not talking about short-term trends, I am talking about predicting the enormous macro events that rattle through financial markets.

Yes, I am aware that I can't predict what the DJIA will do tomorrow by looking at AAPL today... But I expect we are seeing a major market correction and panic begin to take form simply by looking at AAPL stock and the quiet selling of many major investors... People who have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in AAPL stock.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

There are many factors and AAPL is not a barometer of the market... DJIA does not reflect the market as good as S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Base it on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 then I will read it

Lastly, I am not looking to predict the market correction as it happens by keeping an eye on the Russel or what have you, I am planning on predicting it with a comfortable amount of time to react and pro-act before hand.

Russel may not indicate a sharp correction until it has already begun.

AAPL on the other hand seems to have indicated this months in advance.

 

[CalvinLe55]

I think AAPL might not be a real factor in what is about to happen for the U.S Indices. This is going to be one market you won't want to miss out on, and especially the season's early rain as well the late rain coming. Trust me when I say this, but its all about knowing the future forecast this quarter and the annual forecast. When you know the moving energy with time cycles thats when you double up or take some chips off the table.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I think AAPL might not be a real factor in what is about to happen for the U.S Indices. This is going to be one market you won't want to miss out on, and especially the season's early rain as well the late rain coming. Trust me when I say this, but its all about knowing the future forecast this quarter and the annual forecast. When you know the moving energy with time cycles thats when you double up or take some chips off the table.

I don't think people are understanding what I'm getting at - AAPL price movement is a great TIP on where the markets are headed, if there is a drastic AAPL correction or a large scale subtle closing of positions you can expect that a market correction in the macro-market may follow.

But yeah, looking at the price of gold, movement of the bear and bull indices it seems pretty obvious that a correction is in store for us within the year most likely, all speculation but I think this prediction will be proven correct over the course of the year.

 

[kingofdice]

Interesting analogies and I myself, trade primarily on technicals. That being said, in the words of Tom Sossnoff, co-founder of Thinkorswim, "there is a chart in every ship at the bottom of the ocean."

So, I recommend the same as other posters, study the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 index more so than one single stock.

 

[London Minnow]

I don't think AAPL would be a great macro indicator for 2013, its been a lot more bullish lately than most other sectors--then again, I can't tell you why financials and manufacturing are doing as well as they are.

If I was going to chart for a collapse prediction on one stock (and I wouldn't), I'd probably choose something more macro essential like PG, VZ, or UPS.

Then again, Tim Cook & Co is turning out to be that dreaded leadership like the leadership of the US gov...

On a completely separate and sarcastic note, happy inauguration day!

 

[London Minnow]

The bearish volume bursts along with the painfully downward trend (looks like a descending triangle to me on the 1y and 3m) don't suggest a good mid-term technical play to me. AAPL's fundamentals could really stand to improve on just about any product announcement (iphone 5s June launch? iTV Q4?), I might want to really dive into those for a while.

I'm still trying to reason a way AAPL is a good macro indicator other than for the sediment of midrange and upper class consumer demand--they have already taken a hit with the cliff deal, I suspect they'll really start to feel it in March.

sorry for the ramblings, I'll let you buzzards pick it apart a bit, dissect the good from the bull.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Interesting analogies and I myself, trade primarily on technicals. That being said, in the words of Tom Sossnoff, co-founder of Thinkorswim, "there is a chart in every ship at the bottom of the ocean."

So, I recommend the same as other posters, study the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 index more so than one single stock.

The S&P, like the DJIA generally provides minimal foresight into the market, judging by the charts I would expect volatility will be suppressed (as it is being currently) as big investors quietly liquidate positions before a panic ensues. The problem with the S&P is the tells usually don't come with much advance, big money trends in AAPL are much more visible and personal in my opinion.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

The bearish volume bursts along with the painfully downward trend (looks like a descending triangle to me on the 1y and 3m) don't suggest a good mid-term technical play to me. AAPL's fundamentals could really stand to improve on just about any product announcement (iphone 5s June launch? iTV Q4?), I might want to really dive into those for a while.

I'm still trying to reason a way AAPL is a good macro indicator other than for the sediment of midrange and upper class consumer demand--they have already taken a hit with the cliff deal, I suspect they'll really start to feel it in March.

sorry for the ramblings, I'll let you buzzards pick it apart a bit, dissect the good from the bull.

It's all good minnow I guess people are having a difficult (neigh impossible) time understanding the perspective I'm coming from, when it comes to AAPL providing good foresight to the market I am speaking generally on the terms of the long-term trend, not the short - term trend, short-mod term it appears to be loading up for one last run before the panic, long-term it appears long-term multi-million $ shareholders are liquidating positions and exchanging them for short-term positions. What the future has in store is not obvious but I would say AAPL provides a good tip - that being big money is quietly withdrawing from the markets yet suppressing volatility and giving the day-traders easy money in order to prop up markets until their positions are fully closed and money is stashed in safer havens.

 

[Pat494]

I see some positive points being made about being an Apple watcher.

1. The Steve Jobs effect may be waning soon.
2. It is in a very competitive market area. One dud product by any of the players and they will be struggling to keep up. But having said that Apple has huge reserves.
3. Less than competent management could kill the company. When the first enthusiasts have gone, can the normal 9 to 5 ers carry it on at such a high level ?
4. Unknown factors ? The tablet etc. market is full to bursting now with nothing much on the NEW horizon.
5. The higher Apple grows, the more susceptible it could come to harsh/unlucky circumstances imho. One whiff of trouble and some of the big boys could pull their profits dropping the share price like a bric.

 

[HairyMoose]

Look at the 10 year chart just in relation to the price per share, the AAPL chart for this past quarter is eerily reminiscent of what it looked like in 2008 right before the major recession.

Just a question, what percentage is AAPL of the Jow Jones, Nastac etc, ? Thanks !

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I see some positive points being made about being an Apple watcher.

1. The Steve Jobs effect may be waning soon.
2. It is in a very competitive market area. One dud product by any of the players and they will be struggling to keep up. But having said that Apple has huge reserves.
3. Less than competent management could kill the company. When the first enthusiasts have gone, can the normal 9 to 5 ers carry it on at such a high level ?
4. Unknown factors ? The tablet etc. market is full to bursting now with nothing much on the NEW horizon.
5. The higher Apple grows, the more susceptible it could come to harsh/unlucky circumstances imho. One whiff of trouble and some of the big boys could pull their profits dropping the share price like a bric.

#3 is a great point