Aapl

[viktor_k67]

If you take a look at the AAPL (see chart #1 below), you will see that as of now the APPL is about at the same level ($105.90) it was on August 20 of 2015 ($106.05) a day before it crashed to $92 which is 31.6% from the highest high ($134.53) seen on April 28 of 2015.

Chart #1: AAPL stock chart as of 12/18/2015. 1 bar = 1 day.

Now, if you compare August 21 (see chart #2) and December 18 (chart #3) intraday trading sessions, you will see that they are quite similar. On both of the charts the AAPL declined and on both charts we see increase in volume which could be considered as some panic.

Chart #2: AAPL stock chart as of 05/20/2015. 1 bar = 2 minutes.

Chart #3: AAPL stock chart as of 12/18/2015. 1 bar = 2 minutes.

Charts courtesy of www.marketvolume.com

From one side the trends on the AAPL on 8/21/2015 and on 12/18/2015 are similar (see charts #2 and #3 above), from another side, by looking at the chart #1, you will see that volume on 8/21/2015 was much higher than on 12/19/2015 (126 M shares versus 86 M shares). On 8/20/2015 we had more traders who was selling in panic. However, we always have to remember that volume is 2-side transaction and for each seller we have a buyer. High volume surge surge on 8/21/2015 also mean bullish traders attracted by low AAPL price started to buy. On the next trading session (8/24/2015) the AAPL slid strongly and we had even stronger volume surge which suggest that bigger number of bullish traders started to buy AAPL ($90-100 for AAPL stock looked very attractive) from the Bearish traders. These bullish traders were stronger then the bearish traders and they pushed the Apple up.

On this Friday (12/18/2015) we had the AAPL at the same level it was on 8/21/2015, yet on much lower volume.

Price declines because there is more bearish traders willing to sell at lower price. Smaller volume means smaller number of bullish traders are jumping to buy from the Bears. The AAPL does not look any more as attractive as it was in August of 2015. If on Monday the AAPL continues to decline, we may not see a bounce as we saw on August 24 of 2015 simply because now there is smaller number of the Bulls than it was in August.

 

[viktor_k67]

Below you may see AAPL average daily volume for the past 7 years (after the 2008 stock market crash):

Year - Average Daily Volume

2015 - 50,428.14 K
2014 - 61,443.49 K
2013 - 101,608.68 K
2012 - 131,964.19 K
2011 - 123,074.72 K
2010 - 149,826.30 K
2009 - 142,116.74 K

Starting from 2009 there is steady decline in daily volume on the this stock. Right now, the average daily volume is two times lover than it was in 2011 and 3 times lower than in 2009. See the 7-year chart for this stock with green and red volume bars at the bottom of a chart:

High volume mean big number of investors are involved in trading. Small volume means luck of interest of investor in a stock and huge volume means a lot of institutional traders are involved in a game. From the chart and data above we may see that a lot of institutional and retail traders were attracted by the Apple stock in the past. Starting from 2013 a lot of institutional investors simply stopped buying this stock. That is why we had a strong correction in 2013 and that is why by the end of 2013 the daily volume dropped to 61 M per day from 130 M per day at the beginning of 2013. The drop in volume was caused by the institutional traders because the retail traders do not trade in such volumes.

When institutional traders loose the interest in a stock, it becomes difficult for retail traders to continue pushing it up and that what we witnessed in 2015.

Now the AAPL stock is 25% from its top in 2015. This is a strong drop and a lot of retail traders are attracted by this drop and a lot of them are jumping in. I am referring to the retail traders because they trade in low volume. The Apple Inc. is a great company. However, despite 25% drop from the top, the Institutional traders have not became attracted by the this stock. WE DO NOT SEE STRONG INCREASE IN VOLUME!!! Institutions are not jumping into the APPL stock and they are not starting to buy. They did not get scared either - they did not start selling as well - average volume remains at the same low levels

Without of institutional investors that AAPL cannot move up a lot - we may see bounces up caused by retail traders but nothing serious. Only when the big institutions start buying the AAPL could be pushed up. Without them this stock is doomed for further decline. That is why I am out of this stock and I am not coming back to it for a while.

I will be back only when I see institutional traders are coming back - when I see average daily volume on the AAPL stock rising above 100 M per day, it will be a sign for me that AAPL drooped to the level when it started to attract the institutional money. I do not know when it happen but until then AAPL is not worth bothering....

When I see the institutional money are coming in this stock I will jump in as well. The institutions invest in big volumes - if you want to see what they are doing then track volume. Only they have enough power to reverse this stock up. Retail traders cannot do it alone.

 

[philip.chen19]

Definitely Oversold right now on daily chart, on the look out for break out / congestions

 

[Timity]

This was such an obvious buy below 95. Was filled at 94.97. Not bad.