Predicting a MARKET CRASH Q1-3 by analyzing AAPL

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
Interesting analogies and I myself, trade primarily on technicals. That being said, in the words of Tom Sossnoff, co-founder of Thinkorswim, "there is a chart in every ship at the bottom of the ocean."

So, I recommend the same as other posters, study the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 index more so than one single stock.

The S&P, like the DJIA generally provides minimal foresight into the market, judging by the charts I would expect volatility will be suppressed (as it is being currently) as big investors quietly liquidate positions before a panic ensues. The problem with the S&P is the tells usually don't come with much advance, big money trends in AAPL are much more visible and personal in my opinion.
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
The bearish volume bursts along with the painfully downward trend (looks like a descending triangle to me on the 1y and 3m) don't suggest a good mid-term technical play to me. AAPL's fundamentals could really stand to improve on just about any product announcement (iphone 5s June launch? iTV Q4?), I might want to really dive into those for a while.

I'm still trying to reason a way AAPL is a good macro indicator other than for the sediment of midrange and upper class consumer demand--they have already taken a hit with the cliff deal, I suspect they'll really start to feel it in March.

sorry for the ramblings, I'll let you buzzards pick it apart a bit, dissect the good from the bull.


It's all good minnow I guess people are having a difficult (neigh impossible) time understanding the perspective I'm coming from, when it comes to AAPL providing good foresight to the market I am speaking generally on the terms of the long-term trend, not the short - term trend, short-mod term it appears to be loading up for one last run before the panic, long-term it appears long-term multi-million $ shareholders are liquidating positions and exchanging them for short-term positions. What the future has in store is not obvious but I would say AAPL provides a good tip - that being big money is quietly withdrawing from the markets yet suppressing volatility and giving the day-traders easy money in order to prop up markets until their positions are fully closed and money is stashed in safer havens.
 

Pat494

Legendary member
14,621 1,578
I see some positive points being made about being an Apple watcher.

1. The Steve Jobs effect may be waning soon.
2. It is in a very competitive market area. One dud product by any of the players and they will be struggling to keep up. But having said that Apple has huge reserves.
3. Less than competent management could kill the company. When the first enthusiasts have gone, can the normal 9 to 5 ers carry it on at such a high level ?
4. Unknown factors ? The tablet etc. market is full to bursting now with nothing much on the NEW horizon.
5. The higher Apple grows, the more susceptible it could come to harsh/unlucky circumstances imho. One whiff of trouble and some of the big boys could pull their profits dropping the share price like a bric.
 

HairyMoose

Junior member
44 0
Look at the 10 year chart just in relation to the price per share, the AAPL chart for this past quarter is eerily reminiscent of what it looked like in 2008 right before the major recession.

Just a question, what percentage is AAPL of the Jow Jones, Nastac etc, ? Thanks !
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
I see some positive points being made about being an Apple watcher.

1. The Steve Jobs effect may be waning soon.
2. It is in a very competitive market area. One dud product by any of the players and they will be struggling to keep up. But having said that Apple has huge reserves.
3. Less than competent management could kill the company. When the first enthusiasts have gone, can the normal 9 to 5 ers carry it on at such a high level ?
4. Unknown factors ? The tablet etc. market is full to bursting now with nothing much on the NEW horizon.
5. The higher Apple grows, the more susceptible it could come to harsh/unlucky circumstances imho. One whiff of trouble and some of the big boys could pull their profits dropping the share price like a bric.

#3 is a great point (y)
 

CalvinLe55

Member
51 0
Well, much to say about all this I work on W.D Gann methods of forecasting. I do not find in my forecast much of a stronger weakness coming this season. Again it should be a strong year if all proves to be true, but AAPL will either go through a correction or bounce back. In the least I know they should prove to move markets, but if they don't sell iphones perhaps they breakdown more. Will the market follow insync? Many bull markets have come still when the big guy had to go through a sector rotation. RIMM and NOK have been moving big lately, so this may as it sounds be over pessimism. The key is though if you know the overall direction of the markets, than as a mover you will know if AAPL will still move and shake.
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
Well, much to say about all this I work on W.D Gann methods of forecasting. I do not find in my forecast much of a stronger weakness coming this season. Again it should be a strong year if all proves to be true, but AAPL will either go through a correction or bounce back. In the least I know they should prove to move markets, but if they don't sell iphones perhaps they breakdown more. Will the market follow insync? Many bull markets have come still when the big guy had to go through a sector rotation. RIMM and NOK have been moving big lately, so this may as it sounds be over pessimism. The key is though if you know the overall direction of the markets, than as a mover you will know if AAPL will still move and shake.

The point is regardless of how AAPL fundamentals perform the stock will generally trend ahead of the market, or at the very least show insight into the market. Because if big money makes a point to begin selling off positions for the mod-term they would not leave AAPL out of the bunch.
 

CalvinLe55

Member
51 0
Apple was no company I advise my clients once the stock went under $500 it was never consider. Plus I know some vibrational analysis being its 36th year in 2012 on 9/19/2012. The one thing about Apple is that it is a heavy weight, but according to what I know about the Heavens and the way it rules... Apple doesn't mean a thing. If the sky wanted it to go through a sector rotation, than that is the way nature determines such a thing. Also if unemployment numbers keep getting better, than the future just gets brighter as the housing market comes back into the business cycle strong. What is really going to slow us down? The answer is Apple in the long run too? :idea:
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
Even now after this months' bounce from YTD lows AAPL still appears saturated, I expect the unloading still isn't finished, and big money will be weary of loading up long-term positions through this year. This leads me to believe that a massive profit taking session will occur soon through the entire market maybe even this year and lead the market into a relatively sharp correction, it may even go as far as a panic and "double dip" recession, although I expect it to be more mild than the last if it does occur.
 

CalvinLe55

Member
51 0
Even now after this months' bounce from YTD lows AAPL still appears saturated, I expect the unloading still isn't finished, and big money will be weary of loading up long-term positions through this year. This leads me to believe that a massive profit taking session will occur soon through the entire market maybe even this year and lead the market into a relatively sharp correction, it may even go as far as a panic and "double dip" recession, although I expect it to be more mild than the last if it does occur.

Mr. Crabs, its very possible for a correction although I find it hard to digest a 20% correction. If I find The Master Seal of 55, than it could be dangerous although with my experience not confirm yet.

Also what is the Star of David for? :eek:
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
Mr. Crabs, its very possible for a correction although I find it hard to digest a 20% correction. If I find The Master Seal of 55, than it could be dangerous although with my experience not confirm yet.

Also what is the Star of David for? :eek:

If the market corrects and a panic is hyped up then I think the bottom would be more than 20% down, S&P could plunge below $1,000.

What you got a problem with the star of David? It's an awesome symbol. What else do you expect some ulterior motive for putting it in my signature?
 
 
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