A useful reminder...

titus-uk

1
291 5
Lets face it friends, this is a painful time indeed. I started trading in April 2000 when I opened my self-select ISA (if I was superstitious I could say it was MY fault that it crashed after I got in!!!). So really, I have slid down the slope without any of the preceeding accumulation of funds - doubly painful!

However, whilst this downtrend is extreme, it will not last. And in the long term, the best way of wealth accumulation is the markets. An interesting article from CBSmarketwatch.com is included, saying that from the rules of compound interest of 10%, the Dow would hit 100 000 in 25 years. (Over last few decades it has been 13%, so this is not outlandish). So when we look back at the indices charts in 25 years time, hopefully on a beach somewhere, we will see the retracement of 2000 - 2001, remarking with a little chuckle, "I remember that well, tough times. But the lessons I learnt made the next 20 years very prosperous indeed!"

OK, so I am an optimist. However, the macroeconomics make a true crash (like in 1920's) unlikely, so this will not go on forever. Then, as Riz says, the time to go in for the kill will be upon us.

Keep heads up,
Mark
 

Uncle

Established member
671 2
.........and if the indices can average 10%, then anyone active on this BB should exceed that by a wide margin.

Pity all the facilities we have today werent around 40 years ago...........ah well, thats life!!

However, I have no complaints, and like all you good folks I look forward to a turnround in due course.

Meanwhile, take care out there, and whilst time waits for no man, the good times will.

John
 

shelman

1
439 1
Yep, agree with John....hone your skills and you'll easily beat 10%...as for the ISA, you're young, forget it and in 10 years you'll wonder what the fuss was about.
It's estimated that a 21 year old investing in isas, peps or whatever would have double a company pension could bring in 40 years.
By the way Mark, are you a Manc. or just working here.
Steve
 

Max Damage

Member
83 0
Please correct me if I am wrong but I am more than a little fed up with bear talk that I see as far from being truthfull

Last month consumer confidence fell and was bad. Now a rise is bad. It can't be bad both ways its impossible but thats the way all news is being described as irrespective of what it actually is.

Inflation is LOW
Interest rates are LOW. 7% used to be the low point not the peak
Unemployment is at record lows

The only way a reccession will happen for any length is becuase shorters and traders have screwed private investors who are a large % of the population in the USA and the lower these shorters take it and the more privates get crucified then that is the only danger and that to me will be a reccesion brought on by a select few shafting the majority.

I wonder how many good quality IPO's Privates will be allowed in next year. I'd hate to think they only allowed privates to buy the Total Junk

Why have UK markets substantially underperformed the US?. Why are we more worried about the US economy then the US?

Why has the Nasdaq gone so low you can't even find a sensible support level on the charts

And If anyone thinks we have much lower to go then why are trades recently showing lots of trade and private sells followed up with big buys. ARM and Marconi being examples

Tech stocks were way to high and a correction was inevitable but the bears weren't happy with that and are now inventing a worlwide recession. Technology spending would always fall as the dotcom companies ran out of free cash but in all that manufacturing and retail have carried on as normal and will continue as will the quality techs who once the internet hype and hysteraia spending have come out of forcasts which after all the profit warning have will recover.

The bears are blaming the economy for the profit warnings when in reality the blame lies at those same analysts and directors with their stupidly high unmeetable forcasts who are now blaming anything rather than refuse to admit that they shafted us selling us stock at silly prices. But now they want them back and they want them cheap but they are not having mine cheap.

This article Talks about the rip off going on and it is my belief continueing if people sell. For me Long term now is a good time to buy. Maybe not the bottom but there are still some very cheap shares out there that will do very well in future

http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6788-2001Mar14.html

All IMHO of course

Now the latest bear tactic is interest rates. Below is from quote.com

Hopes of a rebound ahead of the St. Patrick's Day weekend are looking grim as the NASDAQ dips to new lows this morning. Before the opening bell, investors were looking ahead to next week's Fed meeting with some degree of optimism and speculating that there could be an aggressive 75 basis point rate cut as the Fed attempts once again to get the economy back on track. However, those hopes were dashed when the March consumer confidence data released at 10:00 (ET) came in ahead of expectations, adding to a string of recent data showing that the economic slowdown in moderating. According to current logic of the market, this development is bad because it gives the Fed room to move more conservatively on interest rates without having to fear that the economy will tank.

The bit in bold is quite astonishing!!!!!!. And this talks about the consumer confidence that when below expectations was bad news as it meant the economy was in bad shape. A total about face and complete and utter manipulation and misrepresentation IMHO

So in other words they are trying to tell us we need now 75 basis drop, but probably 50 bp will happen. Hence when the Fed does as expected for a non recession economy they will say we expected 75bp and so we are selling :mad:

If they get 75bp. Guess what they will say then. It must be bad if they are doing 75bp :mad:

 

shelman

1
439 1
Just posted on similar Max...'the final shakedown'
Don't get mad mate...if you can't beat them etc...this happens every time...why else would you have wealthy people and not so wealthy people.
Steve
 

titus-uk

1
291 5
Steve - lived in Manchester for 8 years now - feel its home! Esp with the greatest football team on the planet just up the road!

All the best,
Mark
 

Max Damage

Member
83 0
Mark where abouts in Manchester are you. I'm guessing Sale. I work in Altrincham and live in Oldham. Bit of a drive but never mind. I take it you are talking about the Latics when discussing football;)
 

titus-uk

1
291 5
Max good guess - actually between Sale and Northenden. Actually, looking at the homes of T2W members, we could create the Manc possy!!!! What do you reckon?
;)

Mark
 

shelman

1
439 1
Small world Mark...Gatley is only just down the road.

Max, are you RR from the chatroom...going back a bit.

Steve
 

Max Damage

Member
83 0
I've never been in the chat room unfortunately but I reckon the Mancs should get together and sort those soft southeners out;)

Over a glass of white wine of course:)
 

titus-uk

1
291 5
Small world chaps - good to know I have so many great neighbours - all I need to do is to find out if Uncle lives in the same street!!

Gatley I know only too well after working in both Wythenshawe and Stepping Hill Hospitals. And Max, as I probably pass you in the car on the M60 each day as I now work in Preston!!


All the best,
Mark
:)
 

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