Hello Traders
Sadly we have learned of military conflict between Israel, USA and Iran that has started
a few hours ago. We have experience with this unfortunate circumstance and offer the
following comment
-----------------------------------------
What to Expect During the Coming Days
Immediate Effect on S&P 500 Futures
We will monitor world news and also list the high impact economic reports that may affect the markets
Based on price action during the Initial Balance (in the first hour) we may simply stand aside for that entire session
so that we can evaluate the data. In that case we would trade as early as Tuesday
Scenarios
1) Institutions will back off and liquidity may dry up for a period of time as markets move lower or
2) Markets may exhibit trading range behavior until more visibility is obtained as to world events
3) If institutions choose a "Risk Off" posture, we expect an extended move as much as 4% lower
4) If this conflict is brief (a matter of days), then institutions will look to buy back inventory at or near
Monday/Tuesday lows. Based on news to this hour, we expect a duration of 2-7 days.
Good Luck
Sadly we have learned of military conflict between Israel, USA and Iran that has started
a few hours ago. We have experience with this unfortunate circumstance and offer the
following comment
-----------------------------------------
What to Expect During the Coming Days
Immediate Effect on S&P 500 Futures
- Sunday Evening Opening: Futures are likely to experience a "gap down" as markets first react to the news of strikes on Tehran and the subsequent Iranian retaliatory missile launches.
- Monday New York Session: The session is expected to be characterized by heightened volatility (VIX spike). If the conflict shows signs of expansion or prolonged disruption to energy corridors, the sell-off may intensify.
- Historical Context: In previous escalations between these entities, such as in June 2025, S&P 500 futures dropped approximately 0.4% immediately upon the news. Given the "major combat operations" status declared by President Trump, the reaction in 2026 may be more severe
We will monitor world news and also list the high impact economic reports that may affect the markets
Based on price action during the Initial Balance (in the first hour) we may simply stand aside for that entire session
so that we can evaluate the data. In that case we would trade as early as Tuesday
Scenarios
1) Institutions will back off and liquidity may dry up for a period of time as markets move lower or
2) Markets may exhibit trading range behavior until more visibility is obtained as to world events
3) If institutions choose a "Risk Off" posture, we expect an extended move as much as 4% lower
4) If this conflict is brief (a matter of days), then institutions will look to buy back inventory at or near
Monday/Tuesday lows. Based on news to this hour, we expect a duration of 2-7 days.
Good Luck
