A Professional Approach to Trading Futures

[steven46]

Here is the weekly cycle showing price action on chart with 30 minute candles on the right
and 15 minute candles on the left

Reset Wednesday is our primary reference, because (as it showed last week), institutions decided
to make adjustments on that day, and the effects rippled though the markets on Thurs and Today (Friday)

Using the lows (Thurs & Friday) allowed me to make good trades both days

Good luck

 

[steven46]

For those unfamiliar with an institutional approach we have updated the previous chart
hoping to make it easier for retail traders to understand

The chart on the left shows an example of the "Overnight Drift" as researched by the NY Fed
Interesting that this isn't of more interest. Not one person here has inquired about it and yet
it is most reliable way to make money bar none (google it).

Good luck

 

[steven46]

Hello London & Euro Traders

Here are the pending High Impact Economic Reports for the week
-------------------

NY Session Outlook – S&P 500 E-mini Futures​

This document provides a professional institutional-style outlook for the upcoming NY Session, combining high-impact macroeconomic releases with an intraday regime and scenario analysis based on the provided S&P 500 E-mini Futures chart.

1. High-Impact Economic Releases​

Monday:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 am EST) – High impact

Tuesday:
- JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 am EST) – Medium impact

Wednesday:
- ADP Employment Change (8:15 am EST) – Medium impact
- ISM Services PMI (10:00 am EST) – Medium/High impact

Thursday:
- Bank of England Rate Decision (7:00 am EST) – Global risk impact

Friday:
- U.S. Employment Situation Report (8:30 am EST) – Highest weekly impact

And our Scenarios

NY Session Scenarios

Scenario A – Bearish Continuation (Primary):
- Failure to reclaim prior session value
- Rejection at VWAP or London session resistance
- Acceptance below prior NY lows

Scenario B – Mean Reversion / Short Covering:
- Oversold open with inability to continue lower
- Responsive buying into early NY
- Rotation toward VWAP before sellers re-engage

Scenario C – News-Driven Reversal:
- Strong labor or macro surprise
- Sharp impulse move followed by pullback
- Structure flip confirmed by higher low above VWAP

Regime Identification

The 1-hour ES chart reflects a transition from an upside rotational environment earlier in the week to a late-week downside regime. Early week sessions showed controlled higher highs with acceptance, particularly during London and early NY trade. However, Thursday marked a clear regime shift as price failed to sustain prior highs and initiated directional selling.

Friday follow-through selling confirmed distribution and a bearish intraday bias. The structure now shows lower highs, weaker acceptance above VWAP, and downside continuation into the close.

For this type of day, we would monitor only for 30 minutes, waiting for the early discovery process
to unfold. We would enter a position based on clean break to either side, although we favor downside
continuation early.

 

[steven46]

The London Session is fast drawing to a close. We stayed up to trade
what is for us, an "Overnight Drift" condition. Although the setup was not
perfect, it was close enough that we were willing to accept risk in order to
obtain a windfall return. In this case it was +30 pts

Regarding the New York session which starts in about an hour, we will stay up
long enough to monitor price action and if we see a reasonable entry at the
close of the IB, we may give it a go on smaller size.

Good luck

 

[steven46]

Hello Traders

Posting this chart showing the result so far
The day was interesting in that it was different than expected
The preferred scenario (Rotation lower) did not play out. Readers who
followed my previous post saw the "Overnight Drift" THEN if you look at the chart
you can see that price "reclaimed" territory (Previous New York Session low first,
then (at the New York Open) again it "reclaimed" the previous session Value Areas Low
and High. It is no coincidence that at 6pm, when the report was released, price was AT
this area (that is what institutions wanted) and algos were activated to move the market higher
and defend both the VWAP (buyers were willing to buy above that price) and the 9 period ema
When it is this obvious, professionals do one thing and one thing only (buy on shallow pullbacks).
Easy day for skilled traders