Hello Trader333
Thanks for being kind (and posting a "like")
I post this because (if you review the previous comment)
I suggest that the upside from the "news" (Courts blocking
Trump Tariffs) would continue. Obviously I was wrong
What I want to show you (Paul), is that even when you are wrong
using this system you have a "2nd chance" to make money...How you may ask?
Looking at the chart below, notice that I label the initial open and the bars that
follow as "Leg1"....This is why we ask retail students to refrain from trading AT
the open, and instead to monitor only. What you see is something that I teach
and that is to observe formation of "Leg 1" and THEN to trade "Leg 2" because the
odds favor a continuation entry. Same Setup (1-2-3)
What I am discovering during my weekend analysis is that, there are often multiple
"Leg 1-Leg 2 setups" on the 5 min time frame.
Good luck
Thanks for being kind (and posting a "like")
I post this because (if you review the previous comment)
I suggest that the upside from the "news" (Courts blocking
Trump Tariffs) would continue. Obviously I was wrong
What I want to show you (Paul), is that even when you are wrong
using this system you have a "2nd chance" to make money...How you may ask?
Looking at the chart below, notice that I label the initial open and the bars that
follow as "Leg1"....This is why we ask retail students to refrain from trading AT
the open, and instead to monitor only. What you see is something that I teach
and that is to observe formation of "Leg 1" and THEN to trade "Leg 2" because the
odds favor a continuation entry. Same Setup (1-2-3)
What I am discovering during my weekend analysis is that, there are often multiple
"Leg 1-Leg 2 setups" on the 5 min time frame.
Good luck
Attachments
RolloTape2025
Member
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Nvidia earnings might have helped a bit too 🙂
Last edited:
London Session opened less then an hour ago
and already we have +5 on a small scalp at the open
We have a person sitting in from our first class, and
they are going to try out this simplified version of
our original VWAP envelope. This version requires
only the Ema, AVWAP, FRVP, and the ability to learn
the system rules, and wait patiently for the setups
to present.
Here is the chart
and already we have +5 on a small scalp at the open
We have a person sitting in from our first class, and
they are going to try out this simplified version of
our original VWAP envelope. This version requires
only the Ema, AVWAP, FRVP, and the ability to learn
the system rules, and wait patiently for the setups
to present.
Here is the chart
Attachments
Last edited:
We attach a chart showing what professionals call the "Backend" of the Weekly Cycle
"Reset Wednesday" is the start of this side of the cycle. On Wed, institutions look at price
in relation to previous highs/lows, THEN they will either "Dump" inventory (as they did this
week) followed by moving price up ("Pump") where they will accumulate and later sell during
the "Off Hours" (at or near the close of London Session). This cycle can and will reverse of course.
The attached chart also shows the obvious (multiple) tests of the "Reset" low. Notice that at each
retest, buyers came in to defend and also to add to their long inventory. THEN TODAY, we saw
institutions move the market down, convincing everyone that the market was headed lower, only
to reverse, TRAPPING bears who will now have to decide whether to buy back their shorts and get long
or to scale in. If they decide to buy back shorts, the market is going to continue up
Earlier today, as we watched this unfold, we took a long scalp, then waited while the market opened
and dropped. I had several former students watching along with me, some of them took the short
trade and made money. I waited for the retest of the lows.
Here are two charts, one showing the "big picture" the other showing today's session and showing
the reversal. HERE IS HOW YOU GO FROM LOSING TO WINNING.
1) Learn to see the big picture (keep the weekly chart in front of you) so that you can anticipate where
the big institutions might move the market.
2) When you see a breakout (up or down) check your Weekly Chart. How likely is it that this breakout will
continue?
3) All of this is about awareness of the context. Professionals operate from the big picture chart, and they
while they DO trade the false breakouts (for scalps), they KNOW that the real money is made by catching
the reversal. This one was worth +60 pts.
Final Note
I woke up and saw this developing scenario and made the necessary changes to my trading plan
and when my friends saw this they said, "how confident are you that this WILL happen?"
I replied, I can tell you that I have seen it before many times. I don't know if it will play out
but if it does, at least you will start to recognize it sooner, because it is on your radar NOW
Lets watch and see
"Reset Wednesday" is the start of this side of the cycle. On Wed, institutions look at price
in relation to previous highs/lows, THEN they will either "Dump" inventory (as they did this
week) followed by moving price up ("Pump") where they will accumulate and later sell during
the "Off Hours" (at or near the close of London Session). This cycle can and will reverse of course.
The attached chart also shows the obvious (multiple) tests of the "Reset" low. Notice that at each
retest, buyers came in to defend and also to add to their long inventory. THEN TODAY, we saw
institutions move the market down, convincing everyone that the market was headed lower, only
to reverse, TRAPPING bears who will now have to decide whether to buy back their shorts and get long
or to scale in. If they decide to buy back shorts, the market is going to continue up
Earlier today, as we watched this unfold, we took a long scalp, then waited while the market opened
and dropped. I had several former students watching along with me, some of them took the short
trade and made money. I waited for the retest of the lows.
Here are two charts, one showing the "big picture" the other showing today's session and showing
the reversal. HERE IS HOW YOU GO FROM LOSING TO WINNING.
1) Learn to see the big picture (keep the weekly chart in front of you) so that you can anticipate where
the big institutions might move the market.
2) When you see a breakout (up or down) check your Weekly Chart. How likely is it that this breakout will
continue?
3) All of this is about awareness of the context. Professionals operate from the big picture chart, and they
while they DO trade the false breakouts (for scalps), they KNOW that the real money is made by catching
the reversal. This one was worth +60 pts.
Final Note
I woke up and saw this developing scenario and made the necessary changes to my trading plan
and when my friends saw this they said, "how confident are you that this WILL happen?"
I replied, I can tell you that I have seen it before many times. I don't know if it will play out
but if it does, at least you will start to recognize it sooner, because it is on your radar NOW
Lets watch and see
Attachments
Last edited:
This should finish my project, showing traders how to make the transition
And the way you do that is to change
1) How you see the market (the Big Picture)
2) What you focus on (Weekly Cycle)
3) Changing the way you think about trading
The markets are controlled by big banks and brokerages
The operate on larger time frames (hourly, daily, weekly, quarterly, yearly)
If a trader operates strictly on a minute based time frame, they will be
consistently "trapped" into losing positions, and out of, winning ones.
Its that simple.
The attached chart shows one option for retail traders to use as a screen display
The second option is simply a screen showing daily and weekly candles. I am
skeptical that anyone will take the time to look closely at the daily/weekly chart
and yet, in many ways, it is the most important chart for skilled professionals.
Using these longer time frame charts, pros can figure out what the institutions
are doing, the general direction they intend, and most importantly the timing
because they have to report earnings at specific intervals.
One final anecdote, it was Richard Dennis who said that "he could publish his
entire system rules in the daily paper and no one would follow them". My experience
suggests that this is largely true.
That's about it I will try to check in to answer (some) questions.
Good luck
And the way you do that is to change
1) How you see the market (the Big Picture)
2) What you focus on (Weekly Cycle)
3) Changing the way you think about trading
The markets are controlled by big banks and brokerages
The operate on larger time frames (hourly, daily, weekly, quarterly, yearly)
If a trader operates strictly on a minute based time frame, they will be
consistently "trapped" into losing positions, and out of, winning ones.
Its that simple.
The attached chart shows one option for retail traders to use as a screen display
The second option is simply a screen showing daily and weekly candles. I am
skeptical that anyone will take the time to look closely at the daily/weekly chart
and yet, in many ways, it is the most important chart for skilled professionals.
Using these longer time frame charts, pros can figure out what the institutions
are doing, the general direction they intend, and most importantly the timing
because they have to report earnings at specific intervals.
One final anecdote, it was Richard Dennis who said that "he could publish his
entire system rules in the daily paper and no one would follow them". My experience
suggests that this is largely true.
That's about it I will try to check in to answer (some) questions.
Good luck
Attachments
Last edited:
RolloTape2025
Member
- Messages
- 89
- Likes
- 22
Sorry if I missed it earlier in the thread. What is your typical initial stop size, and typical loss size? Your profit size I have seen is typically +10, +20
There is no typical size. It depends on where price is in the distribution. Traders may not
understand that stops are "hunted" by institutions. If you put a stop in the obvious place
the odds of getting hit are high.
AND finally, success is in part about changing the way you think. Its not about winning or losing
its about what you have to spend to make money, and how to view expectancy. If you concern
yourself with short term results you will always be caught in the short term randomness of the market.
If instead you find a system approach that has an edge, then over a period of time, you will see that
edge play out. Retail traders trade by the seat of their pants never knowing what their expectation is
and that is in part why they almost always lose. I was gratified to learn that some of my early students
have seen results in line with my system, suggesting that they are operating in a disciplined way.
understand that stops are "hunted" by institutions. If you put a stop in the obvious place
the odds of getting hit are high.
AND finally, success is in part about changing the way you think. Its not about winning or losing
its about what you have to spend to make money, and how to view expectancy. If you concern
yourself with short term results you will always be caught in the short term randomness of the market.
If instead you find a system approach that has an edge, then over a period of time, you will see that
edge play out. Retail traders trade by the seat of their pants never knowing what their expectation is
and that is in part why they almost always lose. I was gratified to learn that some of my early students
have seen results in line with my system, suggesting that they are operating in a disciplined way.
Last edited:
RolloTape2025
Member
- Messages
- 89
- Likes
- 22
Yes of course.
So with expectancy, you need to know what the average loser is. What is the initial stop loss on a trade, and more importantly what is the average loser.
