Hi options-george,
Welcome to T2w!
Given that your forays into trading hitherto haven't been particularly successful in terms of returns on your capital, where as your card 'gambling' has been very successful - relatively speaking - I'm curious as to why you want to play the trading game? Why not stick with what you're good at and - hopefully - improve next year and the year after that? Obviously, you're someone who understands odds very well. I know nothing about 'traditional' gambling (e.g. card games etc.), but I imagine that the odds of a new gambler making consistent profits month on month, year on year, are pretty low. That's certainly the case with trading. Allegedly, 90% who try their hand at this game fail. Let's not argue about what 'failure' actually means (a moveable feast at the best of times!) But, suffice it to say, it ain't easy. Therefore, I would have thought that the odds of you making it in both disciplines has to be pretty low. If you're doing well in one of them, namely cards, then I'd say stick with it and make hay while the sun shines! Out of 200k T2W members, the number who I believe equal (or better) your percentage returns from the card tables can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Then again, maybe I don't move in the right circles!
Tim.
Hi Tim, thanks for the welcomg! You raised some good questions and made some valid points there!
I havn't totally given up on the gambling, but the opportunity was unfortunately only there for a time - now I have to search for similar opportunities more carefully elsewhere but think I can do that in conjunction with trading. Otherwise I would agree with you - just keep on doing the things that are going well. One thing though is that the natural standard deviation of returns with the gambling is quite high - so the variance is one aspect that I didn't like and hope that i can find lower variances in the markets.
I think the odds of me making it in gambling and the markets are not independent. Succeeding in one should improve your chances of making it in the other. From the gambling I learned some concepts/skills that I did not know when I traded previously - concept wise understanding expectancy of returns, Kelly risk management/risk of ruin and standard deviation of returns - and skill wise i learned to be extremely disciplined in sticking to my rules and not letting my emotions get the better of me. So I would dare to say that professional gambling and trading in the markets shouldn't necessarily be regarded as two different items, rather as possibly the same thing but say with a slightly different product.
Like your comment regarding the small number of traders making big profits, in the gambling cirlces that I ventured through I realised that the number of people who were making a good living from it (globally) were few, nevertheless they were out there though they didn't advertise themselves a lot.
Yeah making ROI of 130% with trading in 9 months is most likely not a realistic goal for me :cheesy: but i would happy if I could achieve something in the 25% range over 12 months though I realise even that is highly ambitious!!
I thought carefully about my experience with the City trader and some of the comments that he made in passing, as well as my gambling experiences - to realise what my competitive advantage in the markets would be - I have learned some of my weaknesses and shortfalls as a small-time trader but I have also figured out some of the advantages that come with that. After thinking about that for a months, and some other business things not going so well, I got to this point of coming back to trading.
Wow, that was a lengthy reply. But we all know people like to talk about themselves dont we!!
By the way, this forum looks very good!!
