A Professional Approach to Trading Futures

[steven46]

Hello London & Euro Traders
Currently it is just after 5pm in The City

We woke feeling a bit off, and so did not trade
Reviewing the charts we saw several setups, the most recent
is shown on the attached chart and if I had been trading I
would have taken it for the following reasons

1) The setup occurs after the end of US/Euro Overlap
2) The setup is a reversal which is common at this point in time
3) It is a Mean Reversal Setup, and so we might have taken profit
already (at 8 or perhaps 9 points)

Also the setup was confirmed by CVD (which is in "Test Mode" currently
meaning that it resets hourly.

Here is the chart. The next possible setup would normally occur in about
three (3) hours. We have a doctor's appt and so will not be posting again
today

Good Luck

 

[steven46]

and here is an update on that trade

As can be seen the market reversed and is now exhibiting
"Trading Range Behavior"
The trade if taken would have resulted in a possible profit of
+9 if one were to have the ability to see the future and know
that it would reverse. I do not have that ability, however I DO
have considerable experience and would have been maintaining
a watch over this trade, knowing that a reversal was possible
( I have seen this before). I can only imagine that I would have
exited at or about +6 to perhaps +8 at best.

And again the next "Statistically Preferred" setup is at the "Power Hour"
(Last hour of the session).

Chart attached below

Good Luck

 

[steven46]

Posting this Weekly Chart using 15 min bars

This chart starts the previous Friday and shows the progression from Asia
to London, and into the NY session earlier today. IF we only look at Price Action
it is clear that a consensus was in, and that was based on news that the US Fed
is considering Interest Rate Reduction. That is why early in today's session, the
markets move strongly to the upside, not much hesitation.

An easy day to trade if you were able to recognize the signs
1) Strength early in the session
2) Minor pullbacks
3) Price staying above Key References

Then during the "Power Hour", institutions place sell orders (look at the CVD
at the end of the session.

 

[steven46]

Good Afternoon London & Euro Traders

Late to get up frankly and had to push to get everything in place
Happened to see this setup and was able to take it
Happily a good result. Not one that I recommend for beginners
If you are late to rise it makes more sense to take your time, monitor
and journal your entry (as if you were properly prepared).

 

[steven46]

Trade #2

Again, feeling unprepared however my experience carries me this time
as I monitor news, and volume AND based on what I know of the volatility
I held this one for a "round trip" (a type of trade mentioned several times
in previous posts. Again happily it is a winner +20

And now we wait for the end of the US/Euro Overlap

Good Luck

 

[steven46]

And a third trade setup that I missed completely
Why? Busy posting Oh Well
Still a reasonably good day for me and there is more to come
(possibly). We wait, monitor news and drink tea
Some traders may ask, "Why tea and not coffee", and the answer is
that there are certain chemicals in tea that provide alertness without
the jittery feeling that coffee seems to have on me. To each his own of course


Good Luck

 

[steven46]

Hello Traders

Attaching a Weekly Chart and please make note of the following;

1) I was taught by a skilled person, that "There is usually a way to
determine which way the market is leaning" BEFORE the open.

2) Also, either prior the open, or shortly after, there is usually a "Test" of
a "Key Reference" (a price, a moving average, VWAP, etc) and the market's
reaction to that test, tells us which side is in control (buyers or sellers)

3) We teach retail traders to look carefully at higher time frames down to 15 min
charts in order to identify the following

a) Which way is the market leaning based on higher time frame and economic news
b) Which side is in control (buyers/sellers)
c) Which side is trapped (before the open) or could be trapped after the open,
after a "Test" of a "Key Reference" (See the attached chart)

Once they do the analysis, and have the facts in hand, when the market opens, they can focus
on what is really important, and (usually) figure out whether to trade the long or short
side AND whether to look for Momentum (Trend) entries or Mean Reversion (scalping
and short term trades.

Today, after the initial test of the previous "Trend Origin", SKILLED traders knew the odds favored
the long side, because institutions came in early to lift the market higher.

Ultimately Traders who excel at doing their homework and interpreting the data, make money.
Those who don't bother. Not so much.

Good Luck

PostScript

We attached a revised chart. On the left side, notice the Daily bars and "The Test" of the EMA
The lesson to be learned from this, is to pay attention to the Daily chart. It can tell add valuable info
helping to confirm directional bias.