90% get it wrong?

B

bisto

spread betters say 90% of punters get it wrong - is this true?

how about we get them to offer a new sevice for numpties (myself included sometimes) maybe they could have a logon button for lemmings and change the link on the buy and sell buttons so when you buy you are really selling and sell when you want to buy!...........would this even it up? :LOL:

anyone read any good books on contrarian investing?
 

Trader333

Moderator
It's not just spreadbettors but everyone who trades. The percentage varies but is generally accepted to be between 80% and 95%


Paul
 

Smartman

Junior member
Hi If 95% get it wrong (and I am in the 95%)
why do we keep trying
Surely we cant all be so stupid that we continue till death or being broke
for me I think that there is a lot of traders who do quite well
so that what I am aiming at
If the 95% is true then I am deluding myself.
and waiting my money and time
May be I will get it right in the next life
 

Trader333

Moderator
Traderpattern,

80% to 95% lose money which you already know as I have read all your posts and know that you are an accomplished trader.


Paul
 

mully

Established member
Smartman

The same mentality that applies to new traders applies to lotto players. Lotto players should realise they have no chance of winning (14 million to 1 or similar) yet that doesn't stop millions playing it each weekend. At least the odds are better for traders even if it doesn't actually feel like it.

But at least there is that dream (sounds like a lotto player again)
 

mully

Established member
Failure is usually put down to not having a plan, cutting profits too early, letting losses grow and over- leverage (going for that big one). History suggests that the only way to guarantee success in trading is to hold your diversified portfolio of long positions for over 30 years as there has never been a negative return so far.
 
My philosophy for daytrading is simple:

1)Go with the flow, don't waste time trying to over analyse fundamentals or patterns.

2) have tight stops on the downside.

3) whatever you do don't average.

4) Make sure you are getting tight market spreads, therefore only trade in liquid products during regular hours. Try and get the cheapest commission you can. ( This pretty much rules out any kind of spreadbet OMHO)

5) Be disciplined especially about point 2.

6) Have the guts to pull the trigger.


Qualification over point 1) It obviously is recommended that you have a reasonable understanding of macroeconomics i.e. just enough to understand how your market should react to economic data.

Of course none of this means you will get it right more times than you will get it wrong but by following these principles you will soon learn if you have the aptitude make a living from trading.
 

wysinawyg

Active member
<i>History suggests that the only way to guarantee success in trading is to hold your diversified portfolio of long positions for over 30 years as there has never been a negative return so far.</i>

It does no such thing. I've only ever seen such studies done on the UK and US which is a clear example of survivorship bias. I doubt anyone has ever tried to do it properly over all of the different exchanges there have been and would be practically certain that some of them could have been losers over a 30 year period.

wysi
 

DaveGos

Active member
I believe that the 90% figure is skewed by the fact that in most cases new traders will always lose money and will continue to do so until either their capital is gone or they learn their trade well enough to protect this capital and then hopefully make profits. I would be interested to know what percentage of traders are profitable after say 2 years of experience.
 

one/two

Member
how many of that 90%actually give trading the time it deserves

I mean look at GCSE'S, two years studying
'A' levels, two years studying
Degree, three years studying
the time i wasted studying stuff i didn't have a blind bit of interest in!!!!!
I could name several professional jobs as well that have you on probation for a couple of years before you actually fully qualify.

Trading demands consistent discipline, effort, and pure perseverance over many, many months and often years before you can consider yourself any where near professional or experienced enough to handle what markets can throw at you.

has anyone got an idea on how long this 90% actually last, do they throw the towel in after 6 months!

I found a thread last night that i sure many have read
" the story of a break even trader"
sorry i don't know how to create the link but its easy to find in the search option.
once read, I think you will know what i mean.
 
Last edited:
B

bisto

anyone like my idea about the lemming button? :LOL:
 
B

bisto

yeh you might be right oatman

thanks for all the input guys - a lot of good stuff here
 

ColinRiche

Well-known member
I Still think the best comparison to trading is that of the slot machine - the humble fruit machine !

Most people lose money
Some make a profit
A few make a living

But the house always wins


Without all the small losers - there wouldn't be the big payout !!!

HTH :rolleyes:
 

bonsai

Veteren member
I am not sure that in this context, trading is any different to
many other occupations.
I wonder how may wannabe air pilots fail to succeed ?
or Tennis players or wannabe Golfers.
or Systems Analysts ?

It can cost you an awful lot of money trying to become a failed
professional golfer and it takes years for the penny to drop.
 

timsk

Legendary member
Oh Skim, you are a tease!
Would you care to outline the things that the 90% were / are doing that you now desist from doing or, to put a positive slant on it, the things they were / are not doing which you consiously make an effort to do?
Cheers, Tim.
 
 
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