80/1 Lib Dems For the most seats

[arabianights]

Wasn't me mate, I was in Westminster most of the day.

Julian I agree it is a good value bet; further more I think anyone laying you is a moron simply because the time value of the money is such that they would almost certainly be better off just putting the money in a bank account (unless they are squaring off their book).

The reason I would not take it is that the true odds are probably somewhere about 40-1... and I don't expect to live to see 40 general elections unless we turn into Italy. Now I appreciate you could say that there are plenty of other value bets in lots of other markets that I could do, and you would be right, but I prefer to consider each universe of betting/trading separately and thus I am not only concerned with expectancy but median return as well, and unquestionably anyone backing the Lib Dems is onto a loser there.

P.S. The best website for discussing political betting is politicalbetting.com, which is frequented by a few guys who do this all the time and plenty of MPs/assistants/yadas. The layout is dire though, discussion essentially just taking place in the comments of whatever the latest blog post is.

 

[Skill Leverage]

Wasn't me mate, I was in Westminster most of the day.

Julian I agree it is a good value bet; further more I think anyone laying you is a moron simply because the time value of the money is such that they would almost certainly be better off just putting the money in a bank account (unless they are squaring off their book).

True, 0.01%APR isn't that good, even these days; deal's off Julian my man. Now where's that varnish

 

[TheBramble]

julian, are you saying because you currently believe 80:1 is good value (i.e. far bigger odds than are justified in your opinion) you will therefore be happy and willing to back it at those odds? A purely directional bet that libdems will have the majority of seats?

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Absolutely Ive got money on already and will try to get more on at those prices.if the price moves in my favour I will lay it off.If it goes to 40/1, that means Ive got 40/1 for nothing. for that to happen the Betfair market only has to move 1%. A good bye election or euro elections will do that

 

[TheBramble]

I have no doubt the price will come out, but I thought you were just going to back it - not trade it out. I must have misunderstood your comments.

Sanity restored.

 

[Skill Leverage]

I have no doubt the price will come out, but I thought you were just going to back it - not trade it out. I must have misunderstood your comments.

Sanity restored.

Likewise, I didn't even know you could trade bets in that way tbh, apologies. That sounds like quite good fun.. now I know why my mum wouldn't let me anywhere near William Hill as a child.

 

[Trader333]

Betfair can be traded and even scalped the way that any market can and one of the key advantages is that it lacks professional traders. If you have read any of T2W member Scripophilists work then it soon becomes clear how this is done and he does make his living from Betfair.


Paul

 

[TheBramble]

Betfair can be traded and even scalped the way that any market can and one of the key advantages is that it lacks professional traders.

Don't trade those markets, but I know a man who does as his living...and he seems fairly convinced, certainly over the last couple of years, the bookies increasingly are in there not just to lay off or hedge, but playing games at and after the off.

One of the few things that decided me against more than just a review of that market was the low volumes going through on anything other than a class 1. That's still primarily the case as I understand it, which only serves to further highlight the serious money when it does come in...

Surely these count as pros Paul?

 

[Gumping]

Don't trade those markets, but I know a man who does as his living...and he seems fairly convinced, certainly over the last couple of years, the bookies increasingly are in there not just to lay off or hedge, but playing games at and after the off.

One of the few things that decided me against more than just a review of that market was the low volumes going through on anything other than a class 1. That's still primarily the case as I understand it, which only serves to further highlight the serious money when it does come in...

Surely these count as pros Paul?

First off sorry to Julian, because I too didn't realise you were playing it this way.

Just wanted to add that I know a couple of people that make a living off of these sorts of exchanges. I know one guy who writes programs - essentially mechanically trading for a living.

It's caveat emptor I suppose....like any other market one trades.

 

[Skill Leverage]

How liquid are these exchanges, say you wanted to lay it off to someone if it did go down, is that a simple process?

 

[TheBramble]

Just wanted to add that I know a couple of people that make a living off of these sorts of exchanges. I know one guy who writes programs - essentially mechanically trading for a living..

Not by any chance in FoxPro and used to do work for a bloke who now sells insurance to expats in Peru?

 

[Gumping]

Not by any chance in FoxPro and used to do work for a bloke who now sells insurance to expats in Peru?

Doesn't ring a bell....

Former work colleague.

 

[pedro01]

Sure - good value - should be 40-1.

You'll still lose though.

 

[TheBramble]

How liquid are these exchanges, say you wanted to lay it off to someone if it did go down, is that a simple process?

I assumed somebody actually trading this would have responded, but the attached screenshot gives you an idea of the 'size' available.

Sure it's got flow the whole time, but at these levels, it's not going to provide you with sufficient financial diversion even to justify it as a bit of fun.

 

[arabianights]

Yup

Big races/football etc though are extremely liquid, although there really isn't much point in scalping them when you could just scalp a real contract instead and make a lot more money.

"Investing" or swing trading on prediction markets is perfectly possible though, they are not the most efficient of things