2018 so far

mrollins

New member
Jan 2, 2018
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#1
Who here is very happy with how they handled the recently volatile US markets?

I diversified a bit into Asia and Europe, bought the right dips and did well for myself:



What approaches did you use to overcome this period?
 

tomorton

Well-known member
Feb 28, 2002
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Exeter
#3
Banked my accumulated profits late Jan as the correction started, made January my best ever month. Since then not so good, as I assume the rotation of capital the correction triggered is what's behind so many forex trends being disrupted. Would have had a better February if I'd stayed in cash for the last month but hey ho.
 

Brumby

Well-known member
May 25, 2012
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#5
Well 2 months have past and there is another 10 to go for 2018. While ultimately the outcome is important, how we get there is even more important. There is an old Wall Street saying "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered". It doesn't matter whether you have a good start or a slow start, if you trade like a pig (or some would refer monkey) then you deserve what is handed out to you. Some might have luck on their side but eventually that runs out.

So the question is - if you have a good start how are you planning to maintain it? Conversely, if you have a bad start, how do you plan to get back on track? What are your 2018 trading goals? Do you have personal performance KPI's that you track? What are they? Are they both quantitative and qualitative? What are your trading weaknesses that you intend to work on in 2018? How are you going about it? In my view, without a structure and process in place, any early success in 2018 will not last because pigs don't survive in this business.
 
Likes: tomorton

mrollins

New member
Jan 2, 2018
8
0
1
#6
Well 2 months have past and there is another 10 to go for 2018. While ultimately the outcome is important, how we get there is even more important. There is an old Wall Street saying "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered". It doesn't matter whether you have a good start or a slow start, if you trade like a pig (or some would refer monkey) then you deserve what is handed out to you. Some might have luck on their side but eventually that runs out.

So the question is - if you have a good start how are you planning to maintain it? Conversely, if you have a bad start, how do you plan to get back on track? What are your 2018 trading goals? Do you have personal performance KPI's that you track? What are they? Are they both quantitative and qualitative? What are your trading weaknesses that you intend to work on in 2018? How are you going about it? In my view, without a structure and process in place, any early success in 2018 will not last because pigs don't survive in this business.
I've beat the market for 5 out of the last 6 years without keeping any KPIs. I do this part-time, devoting maybe 5 hours a week to it. It really comes down mainly to common sense and self-control.

Sure you can argue that those were 6 years of a bull market and that I would be lost in a bear market, but, thinking long-term, all you have to do in a bear market is sit it out.
 

tomorton

Well-known member
Feb 28, 2002
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#7
I've beat the market for 5 out of the last 6 years without keeping any KPIs. I do this part-time, devoting maybe 5 hours a week to it. It really comes down mainly to common sense and self-control.

Sure you can argue that those were 6 years of a bull market and that I would be lost in a bear market, but, thinking long-term, all you have to do in a bear market is sit it out.

As I say with boring regularity, in an uptrend be log, in a downtrend be short.
 

Brumby

Well-known member
May 25, 2012
600
136
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#8
I've beat the market for 5 out of the last 6 years without keeping any KPIs. I do this part-time, devoting maybe 5 hours a week to it. It really comes down mainly to common sense and self-control.

Sure you can argue that those were 6 years of a bull market and that I would be lost in a bear market, but, thinking long-term, all you have to do in a bear market is sit it out.
Good for you. If you had found success in your approach then that is a credit to you and we would certainly not denigrate it in any way. However for mere mortals like us, we have to work at it to improve our trade performance. Philosophically the market is not an entity to be beaten, the issues are always about the trader.
 

kalott

Active member
Jul 10, 2004
674
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Sweden
#9
"Reuters reports that the fund, which held assets of $812 million at the beginning of the month and dwindled by more than 80%, will close by March 29, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission this week.

Numerous industry insiders as well as Reuters have pegged losses in certain LJM programs at 80% or more."

http://www.futuresmag.com/2018/03/01/chicago-based-ljm-suspends-trading-closes-fund
 

mrollins

New member
Jan 2, 2018
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#10
"Reuters reports that the fund, which held assets of $812 million at the beginning of the month and dwindled by more than 80%, will close by March 29, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission this week.

Numerous industry insiders as well as Reuters have pegged losses in certain LJM programs at 80% or more."

http://www.futuresmag.com/2018/03/01/chicago-based-ljm-suspends-trading-closes-fund
I fail to see the relationship between this topic and this article.

LJM runs several different programs but their core strategy is option writing. They are generally short volatility and were so when volatility as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked on Feb. 5.
 

Kaeso

Active member
Oct 4, 2015
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#12
... Philosophically the market is not an entity to be beaten, the issues are always about the trader.
what about those that pick stocks mr brumby sir? they are all about beating the market by picking the best stocks ;)

otherwise they would buy a "world market" index fund etc
 

Brumby

Well-known member
May 25, 2012
600
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#13
what about those that pick stocks mr brumby sir? they are all about beating the market by picking the best stocks ;)

otherwise they would buy a "world market" index fund etc
A good point.

I don't like adopting the notion of "beating" the market simply because it frames the market and the trader as in some form of "adversarial" relationship. Such an idea reinforces an unhealthy attitude that the market is out to get you every time a trade is placed. Frankly the market doesn't care one way or other about our existence or whenever we placed a trade. Very often we become the problem the moment we placed a trade.

Philosophically I subscribe to the following quote attributed to Musawer Ijaz.
"There is no such thing as being right or beating the market. If you make money, it is because you understood the same thing the market did. If you lose money, it is simply because you got it wrong. There is no other way of looking at it."

In simple terms it means the market is neither a friend or foe. It is not the bogeyman. I learn to live with it and flow with it.
 

mrollins

New member
Jan 2, 2018
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#14
A good point.

I don't like adopting the notion of "beating" the market simply because it frames the market and the trader as in some form of "adversarial" relationship. Such an idea reinforces an unhealthy attitude that the market is out to get you every time a trade is placed. Frankly the market doesn't care one way or other about our existence or whenever we placed a trade. Very often we become the problem the moment we placed a trade.

Philosophically I subscribe to the following quote attributed to Musawer Ijaz.
"There is no such thing as being right or beating the market. If you make money, it is because you understood the same thing the market did. If you lose money, it is simply because you got it wrong. There is no other way of looking at it."

In simple terms it means the market is neither a friend or foe. It is not the bogeyman. I learn to live with it and flow with it.
Understood. I don't use the phrase "beating the market" in an adversarial way though, I just use the overall market as a benchmark for my own performance. If the market is up 8% and I'm also up 8% I'm happier than if the market is up by 2% and I'm up by 5%, even though I've "beat the market" in the latter case and merely copied it in the former.

In the end it's all about making money, the rest is our ego, greed or fear playing tricks on us.
 
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Whitehead

New member
Mar 20, 2018
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#15
I always try to focus on a thing which I like the most about this market is that the Forex market is full of opportunities. Every day, every week, every month, and every year will be yours if you have a good grip on the trading strategy you made for yourself.