Welcome all Short Sterling Traders!!!

[sterlingtrader]

i stay as late as i can, everyday. more to do with avoiding my fiancee than waiting for stops to go off however.

i was too busy down the back of the curve to even notice the front to be honest. Although i noticed there was some large volume in the front two 12 month/calendar spreads with a very tight price range. Methinks a big move is in the offing

 

[arabianights]

I hope you're watching deal or no deal then!

I rarely enter a position after 3 o clock on a normal day, the market is dead after then, especially after settlement and the post settlement trades...

You sure those big calendar trades aren't 1Q rolls?

 

[sterlingtrader]

ah, deal or no deal... a trader's favourite. nothing like a game of complete chance to make us feel better about our lives.

they could well be 1Q rolls.

 

[TheBigDog]

you guys have any opinions on where we are going? it almost feels like a spring being coiled before its going to realease and destroy my P/L

 

[arabianights]

dunno, start of 2q... libor held up... I think some potential of libor weakening trades... I wouldn't want to be short at the minute...

 

[brucemole]

There has been some decent ranges on the flies for day traders recently. Pity it's been on sh1te volume. Might be famous last words but I really don't see a big move coming Maybe a small sell off in the whites, a little higher the reds and small lower the greens.

You any opinion on calendar spreads arabian?

 

[arabianights]

nope

 

[TheBigDog]

Can I ask if you guys use any indicators for SS. It seems that somethimes is moves with Gilt/Schatz and then against it. You guys ahve any insight?

thanks for your time

 

[brucemole]

Libor Libor Libor

 

[Martinghoul]

It's all about FRA/OIS, which, in turn, is all about a) the state of the repo/depo mkts, i.e. bank balance sheets; b) manipulation by whichever bank desk has a large position in FRA/OIS.

 

[brucemole]

Would love to hear more of your thoughts on that Martin. Always interesting to see where the reasoning behind the other side of our trades come from

 

[Martinghoul]

Well, as I see it, the main thing recently is that q-end/JPY year-end is behind us, so there's a general loosening of balance sheet pressure. That's why FRA/OIS has been coming off pretty much everywhere. There were a few incidents during March that moved the strip that were mostly due to a large long FRA/SONIA position held by one particular German name. He's taken it off now, so things are a bit more clear. Also, the SONIA/refi spread is a lot calmer now. Going fwd, I think LIBOR should continue to drift lower, unless something that suggests renewed pressure comes out.

 

[sterlingtrader]

anyone got any thoughts on the guy iceberging front m9u9?

 

[brucemole]

haven't been looking there today, what's going on? It's been par - 2 all day????????

 

[sterlingtrader]

up until recently someone was iceberging the -1 bid. 100 lots each time, for ages. even though the -16's in mu9u9z9 are on offer with the m9z9 offered, it looks like there is some hesitance in putting an offer in.

just as i say that it goes offered on implieds!

 

[arabianights]

dunno but I legged out of my 01 shorts at 00 there by getting the priority bid at 63 on june (before popping down to the bank to see if there was any good trouble ) .... I think it was just a genuine order the way it was done...

 

[arabianights]

P.S. I reckon 00s are a good buy if you can get them in the next 45 minutes... it may be leggable with the 3s again but I've no interest in that, I'll take a proper spread trade though.

 

[sterlingtrader]

half your luck legging par's. good job.

put a fly on arabian. go on, sell m9u9 at 1 and pay 18 for half the amount of m9z9. short at 16 in m9u9z9 with 500 lots to lean on in the fly book. join the dark (and very boring) side.

'One of us, One of us'.

 

[arabianights]

I chose split (80%) over fees (90p r.t.) so you ain't gonna be seeing me putting something that has four round trips on without a bloody good reason!

 

[sterlingtrader]

fair play. 45p a side is a bit steep so i can understand your aversion.

back to what we were talking about the other day, there is alot of incentives for liquidity providers the further out the curve you go. you could basically have 2 winning trades out of 10, scratch the rest and live handsomely off the exchange rebates. alot of guys do just that. it's boring as bat sh*t though.