wallstreet1928
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Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders
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wallstreet1928
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Happy weekend everyone
watching Arsenal beat Tottenham and India Vs Australia cricket match
Lets hope the market returns back to some normality with less volatility next week chaps
watching Arsenal beat Tottenham and India Vs Australia cricket match
Lets hope the market returns back to some normality with less volatility next week chaps
wallstreet1928
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"i am long ftse 5140 ...stop loss 5115
target 5190
i have taken this trade solely based on formation , and add to the the fact that we will hold double bottom and eur/usd will find support @ 1.4785, and oil will find support @ 79
and my variables are showing signs of bullishness...even though its against my formula of < 5144 "
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I was asked the following question by a very good friend
"Hi WS I just wanted to understand the reasoning behind this trade a little better. It sounds like you are trading what you think is about to happen rather what was happening. Which obviously strays from one of your mantras which is to trade what you see and not what you think. I'm not trying to challenge the trading decision here, I just want to understand the rationalle."
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The trade was executed around 13.00, and it eventually closed break even ..........
Looking back in hindsight I should have adhered to my formula and I would have made a lot of money and the trade would have been successful, but everyone is a good trader in hindsight. It is the ability to react quickly in real time that makes one a successful trader.......
formula posted at 11.10 am ...post no 15810
"we have inside bar on ftse.................
watch out folks ...
again
< 5144 we go to 5126
> 5160 ...then fly to 5190
any long positions should be at break even"
I would also like to quote my first post as I was short from 5165 on FTSe and 5615 on DAX overnight as my analysis stated that we would fall and put in a right shoulder for the inverted head and shoulders pattern to play out.
"Good morning to all .............
Inverted head and shoulders pattern on the FTSE, powerful reversal signal
The markets will fall initially and then rally hard ...........be careful with shorts after first few hours as the FTSE will put in the right shoulder and then .........BOOM!!
REVERSAL CITY ........"
The markets did fall initially and I closed my short positions for a profit and then I went long. The FTSE put in bullish pattern and went as high as 5172 ........
I have posted the chart that I was looking at with all the trend lines .................
Now, 12.30 - 13.00 .........what was happening when I entered my trade?
1. at the time 3 of my variables were looking strong, 1 was looking weak (mining sector)
2. eur/usd was forming a base and was putting in a double bottom @ 1.48 and was finding support at the 200 MA.
3. eur/usd and oil trade in tandem, therefore oil was finding support too and traded back above $79 on the futures from 12.45 - 13.45 moving from $78.8 to $79.5.
4. I identified the following levels as support , 5138(gap fill ...yesterdays close) and 5145(gap up).......The low of the day was 5127 on the spike. I had one of yesterdays high as 5120(therefore previous resistance now equals support).
5. I had 38.2% retracement from fridays high to thursdays low @ 5120, which interestingly coincides with one of yesterdays high, adding support to the argument that previous resistance now equals support. hence my stop loss was 5115 ...
6. I had my analysis on the US markets which pointed to an up day, the sp500 and nasdaq were going to trade higher.
The FTSE was putting in higher highs and higher lows from yesterday on a 10 min chart pattern so one has to go with the prevailing trend, the ftse had already bounced from gap fill at 5138 and we had the 50 MA at that level too with support at 5120 and the low of the day being 5127 ....i took the trade on the premise that the US market would trade up and close the gap on sp500 @ 1070 and nasdaq close the gap @ 1720 ...which would cause FSTE to bounce @ gap fill 5138(5140 due to 2 point spread)
I took the trade based on the following variables, I followed my trading methodoloy/plan/technique........ on this occasion the market did trade upwards to 5150 and then it closed me out break even at 5140.
Looking at my chart now I can clearly see the reversal pattern after the inside bar at 9.30 which I warned everyone about at 11.10 (please see quote above)....and I should have paid more attention to it as we had a series a series of lower lows and lower highs thereafter, and we obeyed the downward sloping trend line on my chart. I should have also paid more attention to the double top pattern in the German DAX @ 9.30 , which coincided with the inside bar formation...........
I hope this helps chaps.....we must always understand why the market failed and why our trade did not work out in order to prevent making the mistake again. technical analysis is based on chart patterns that repeat themselves over and over again, i would advise everyone to study fridays chart pattern on the DAX and FTSE in order to understand how the DAX(European) market leader can cause the FSTE to falter prior to the US open. The FTSE was very strong initially but the DAX didn't allow it to trade higher than pivot R1 as the DAX failed double top at 5592 and was unable to trade higher than 200ma.
One must adhere to there plan consistently in order to get consistent results
It was a mini financial Armageddon on Friday, and we do not see days like that often so put it in the back of your mind and start anew on Monday folks
target 5190
i have taken this trade solely based on formation , and add to the the fact that we will hold double bottom and eur/usd will find support @ 1.4785, and oil will find support @ 79
and my variables are showing signs of bullishness...even though its against my formula of < 5144 "
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I was asked the following question by a very good friend
"Hi WS I just wanted to understand the reasoning behind this trade a little better. It sounds like you are trading what you think is about to happen rather what was happening. Which obviously strays from one of your mantras which is to trade what you see and not what you think. I'm not trying to challenge the trading decision here, I just want to understand the rationalle."
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The trade was executed around 13.00, and it eventually closed break even ..........
Looking back in hindsight I should have adhered to my formula and I would have made a lot of money and the trade would have been successful, but everyone is a good trader in hindsight. It is the ability to react quickly in real time that makes one a successful trader.......
formula posted at 11.10 am ...post no 15810
"we have inside bar on ftse.................
watch out folks ...
again
< 5144 we go to 5126
> 5160 ...then fly to 5190
any long positions should be at break even"
I would also like to quote my first post as I was short from 5165 on FTSe and 5615 on DAX overnight as my analysis stated that we would fall and put in a right shoulder for the inverted head and shoulders pattern to play out.
"Good morning to all .............
Inverted head and shoulders pattern on the FTSE, powerful reversal signal
The markets will fall initially and then rally hard ...........be careful with shorts after first few hours as the FTSE will put in the right shoulder and then .........BOOM!!
REVERSAL CITY ........"
The markets did fall initially and I closed my short positions for a profit and then I went long. The FTSE put in bullish pattern and went as high as 5172 ........
I have posted the chart that I was looking at with all the trend lines .................
Now, 12.30 - 13.00 .........what was happening when I entered my trade?
1. at the time 3 of my variables were looking strong, 1 was looking weak (mining sector)
2. eur/usd was forming a base and was putting in a double bottom @ 1.48 and was finding support at the 200 MA.
3. eur/usd and oil trade in tandem, therefore oil was finding support too and traded back above $79 on the futures from 12.45 - 13.45 moving from $78.8 to $79.5.
4. I identified the following levels as support , 5138(gap fill ...yesterdays close) and 5145(gap up).......The low of the day was 5127 on the spike. I had one of yesterdays high as 5120(therefore previous resistance now equals support).
5. I had 38.2% retracement from fridays high to thursdays low @ 5120, which interestingly coincides with one of yesterdays high, adding support to the argument that previous resistance now equals support. hence my stop loss was 5115 ...
6. I had my analysis on the US markets which pointed to an up day, the sp500 and nasdaq were going to trade higher.
The FTSE was putting in higher highs and higher lows from yesterday on a 10 min chart pattern so one has to go with the prevailing trend, the ftse had already bounced from gap fill at 5138 and we had the 50 MA at that level too with support at 5120 and the low of the day being 5127 ....i took the trade on the premise that the US market would trade up and close the gap on sp500 @ 1070 and nasdaq close the gap @ 1720 ...which would cause FSTE to bounce @ gap fill 5138(5140 due to 2 point spread)
I took the trade based on the following variables, I followed my trading methodoloy/plan/technique........ on this occasion the market did trade upwards to 5150 and then it closed me out break even at 5140.
Looking at my chart now I can clearly see the reversal pattern after the inside bar at 9.30 which I warned everyone about at 11.10 (please see quote above)....and I should have paid more attention to it as we had a series a series of lower lows and lower highs thereafter, and we obeyed the downward sloping trend line on my chart. I should have also paid more attention to the double top pattern in the German DAX @ 9.30 , which coincided with the inside bar formation...........
I hope this helps chaps.....we must always understand why the market failed and why our trade did not work out in order to prevent making the mistake again. technical analysis is based on chart patterns that repeat themselves over and over again, i would advise everyone to study fridays chart pattern on the DAX and FTSE in order to understand how the DAX(European) market leader can cause the FSTE to falter prior to the US open. The FTSE was very strong initially but the DAX didn't allow it to trade higher than pivot R1 as the DAX failed double top at 5592 and was unable to trade higher than 200ma.
One must adhere to there plan consistently in order to get consistent results
It was a mini financial Armageddon on Friday, and we do not see days like that often so put it in the back of your mind and start anew on Monday folks
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Dentalfloss
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wallstreet1928
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wallstreet1928
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ye and i can confirm this because i was on skype with ws and also went long and was stopped out, we should have paid more attention to the weak DAX
wallstreet1928
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Why The Dollar Drops on Good Economic News
In a U.S.-centric world, positive U.S. economic data would indeed be dollar-positive.
But we don't live in a U.S.-centric world any more, we live in a global world.
In this world, the U.S. is the weakest leak in the chain, with Asia strongest, Europe second, and the U.S. taking up the rear.
Positive U.S. economic data gives global players confidence that the laggard is turning around and the worst of the global recession is behind us.
This means it is safe to play the risk trade: short dollar/long commodities/long emerging markets.
Why this trade? Because participants believe emerging markets is where the growth is, and they will use the U.S. dollar as a funding mechanism to buy higher-yielding assets abroad, just as the yen was used as a funding mechanism in the last decade.
In a U.S.-centric world, positive U.S. economic data would indeed be dollar-positive.
But we don't live in a U.S.-centric world any more, we live in a global world.
In this world, the U.S. is the weakest leak in the chain, with Asia strongest, Europe second, and the U.S. taking up the rear.
Positive U.S. economic data gives global players confidence that the laggard is turning around and the worst of the global recession is behind us.
This means it is safe to play the risk trade: short dollar/long commodities/long emerging markets.
Why this trade? Because participants believe emerging markets is where the growth is, and they will use the U.S. dollar as a funding mechanism to buy higher-yielding assets abroad, just as the yen was used as a funding mechanism in the last decade.
wallstreet1928
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I have posted my weekend analysis of FTSE 100 on Benzinga.com
any criticism/alternative views are more than welcome from all
http://www.benzinga.com/users/wallstreet1928
any criticism/alternative views are more than welcome from all
http://www.benzinga.com/users/wallstreet1928
Mr. G
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WS - 4954 would be a swing chart sell and 4950 would be a (50x3) P&F sell also. Will we get there this week I wonder......
Dentalfloss
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mr g post the chart,then we can all see what you are talking about
4950 area is in the trap zone.so it still not a clear sell in that area
Dentalfloss
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did you put on the trades because you think the market is oversold or did you put them on for another reason ie what signals did you take.i have no idea what tomorrow will bring
cit just filed for bankruptcy.this has been coming..now it finally happened
wallstreet1928
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yes they were talking about it on wednesday(hence sell off in fincancials, so one can argue its already been baked in......but they recovered from it thursday only to sell off again due to Mr Carl Icahn and his antics on Friday)........
what is astonishing is the following quote
"CIT's bankruptcy will likely mean that the Treasury Department loses the $2.3 billion it invested in the company -- the biggest loss from TARP so far."
wallstreet1928
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Santa is still stuck in the chimney ............................
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