Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[Dentalfloss]

watch for a divergence in these areas

ha ha .....just joking

 

[Dentalfloss]

uup..dolllar index is breaking down
hourly data..atr box size

 

[Dentalfloss]

my own thinking on strong trends.is not so much looking for a divergence
better to wait for a previous strong s/r to be taken out.in this case, a break below with a retrace that stays below the s/r
please correct me if you think i am wrong
this is a very strong trend

 

[fast trader7]

microsoft and amazon down, Watch out guys. tomorrow may be the day for southwards

good night

 

[Dentalfloss]

ws
oil just broken out.looks like it has retraced into a prev s/r area.otherwise its back down to $64

 

[dr.blix]

microsoft and amazon down, Watch out guys. tomorrow may be the day for southwards

good night

you prob do miles better than me at this mate, but still, it has to be said...just trade what you see 2moro.

 

[kaisen]

Cheesed off!

Went short at 4572, moved stop to break even when moved down into the 60´s, got stopped out and now look where we have ended up!!!

Everytime i use stops they get taken before the move

 

[Geofract]

Any thoughts on eur/gbp anybody?

I am looking to sell pullbacks at 0.8630, or some where around that area - presuming we get there. That's the plan atm anyway - will have to re-check the charts in the morning.

Target would be 0.8500 potentially.

edit: There could be a short entry around 0.816 as well

 

[wallstreet1928]

Went short at 4572, moved stop to break even when moved down into the 60´s, got stopped out and now look where we have ended up!!!

Everytime i use stops they get taken before the move

sorry to hear that kaisen.......

but look on the bright side.........what if the market reversed and went to 4600 .......

you have protected your capital for the next trade

if that is happening frequently then your analysis of the market is correct, you just have to work on a better entry my friend

that is a good position to be in as a trader

 

[wallstreet1928]

ws
oil just broken out.looks like it has retraced into a prev s/r area.otherwise its back down to $64

Euro down sharply ..........my buy order at 1.4215 didn't get filled!!

Euro below 1.42 ........... it will definitely put pressure on oil to the downside!!

Nasdaq........market leader fails to hold 1600, that alone is a bad sign going into tomorrow

It will be interesting to see how the asian session reacts to microsoft & amazon news

 

[masnachu]

Geo , replying to posts 9133+34 Page 1142 , and post 9178 Page 1148


Yes as I mentioned when I talked about the williams stuff, one of the downsides is the amount of time you have to wait for conformations sometimes. As you've probably realised I don't treat them the same as phill, mainly because I find the amount of move/time you have to wait unacceptable. I think you said you had joined up at phils site , so best to stick with that way for now , keep studying price structure and things will start to dawn on you.


Regarding not wanting to go long on the 22nd (break/touch of 17th) , yep where some good reasons , after the int swing H on the 20th , look how the market reacted to past resistance (could/should now be support) at the Int swing H of the 15th.

(now compare that with the breakout of the Int swg H of 9th , and the reaction after the 15th Int H formed, that's trending action)

The reaction after the 20th Int H stinks of corrective behavior. (again look at the way the short term swings form and react to each other in the different phases I've outlined) Expectation would be some kind of price pattern (triangle , Hoizontal etc)

As of writing, £Y has broken out of the 20th Int H , traded back to and is holding the line. Will it break to the downside ? that's what I would expect , and I'd guess that the next down leg will hold higher than 22nd Int Swg L , but wait until/if we get there and keep an eye on price structure in the mean time.

So the plan for lower TF's would watch for a break down of that old resistance at the 20th Int H (156.431) and trade short, 1st target would be H1 Int Swing H of the 21st @ ~ 155.470 (on UWC)

And yes there's probably something bleedin obvious I've missed doing that quick eyeball analysis above, and it'll hold 156 and go to the moon lol (if it does hold that could well be a breakout and retest). Always try to see both sides of the trade.

Here's some of the positives, with regards to going long after the 22nd low. that Support on the 17th is proven (was old res @ 9th) , Int swing L's and H's were rising , and the 22nd 'touched' it didn't break (closed above) the support line.

regards 12345's , and trading on break of 4 thats just to long for me, but like I said stick with it while your learning, as you get more experience you'll figure out your own way.

regards chart differences , UWC is gmt +3 (so BST +2) , have checked UWC against IG , and for the most part (just the odd 5min bar is different) they're pretty much the same.

 

[wallstreet1928]

ftse analysis before the crazy volatile asian session

4600- 4630 is most likely outcome

probably look to buy around 4540 - 4530 region ............

provided the variables all hold

 

[SuddenDeath]

good morning everyone

 

[kaisen]

sorry to hear that kaisen.......

but look on the bright side.........what if the market reversed and went to 4600 .......

you have protected your capital for the next trade

if that is happening frequently then your analysis of the market is correct, you just have to work on a better entry my friend

that is a good position to be in as a trader

Thanks WS.

The learning point for me is...... enter 1/3 positions! If i had done this then I would have a better overall position on price, a "stronger hand" and most likely would have enjoyed the full run down!
Even if i entered 1/3 positions and the market continually went down, then i would have been able to place stops higher and have the confidence of being in the money anyway!

So a great lesson, again, which didnt cost me anything except lost "potential" money but that would have meant i would not have learned the lesson which will hopefully help me avoid the situation in the future or help keep losses small!

Hey ho another lesson learned!

Congratulations on your day by the way! Excellent and a shining light to us all.

By the way, I know you dont use indicators but Elder ray (measuring bull or bear strength) and Directional movement, specifically ADX, really helped keep me from shorting earlier in the day as everyone was jumping in.
The bulls reading and trend were very strong and those indicators, along with looking at dollar weakness really kept me out of the market and allowed me to get in almost at the end.

If i had done 1/3 positions from 4572 instead of a full position I would have done very nicely!

 

[Geofract]

Any thoughts on eur/gbp anybody?

I am looking to sell pullbacks at 0.8630, or some where around that area - presuming we get there. That's the plan atm anyway - will have to re-check the charts in the morning.

Target would be 0.8500 potentially.

edit: There could be a short entry around 0.816 as well

Still looking to sell eur/gbp - and I am looking for an entry short anywhere from 0.8612, to 0.8646 - 0.8630 still looks good, as R1 is 0.8627.

These are 50% retracement numbers of yesterdays swing, and the swing from the 22nd to 23rd. I am looking for a minimum 50% retracement.

Morning everyone

 

[lapalabra]

Short on open @ 4554, target 4535

 

[wallstreet1928]

Euro looking gain this morning ..........

Nasdaq support @ 1474 ........

FTSE support 4530

 

[fast trader7]

closed astra zeneca -5 points.
short ftse 4553, closed for +10

 

[lapalabra]

Short on open @ 4554, target 4535

Out +10, not giving anything away today

@ WS: Ws I notice this rise on the 10M coincides with R2 from yesterday I have @ 4544, and I remember you saying yesterday 4510 was a key level for ftse longs/shorts, and that level you took from the R1 of day before. Q: do you look at previous days floor pivots for determining direction/decision points as part of the analysis? (I usually pay them no attention, only started since that post)

 

[SuddenDeath]

anyone familiar with the "turtle trader" method of order entry and spacing of orders,