Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[kaisen]

Hey kaisen,

Did i read you are a prop trader 3 months in?

how does that work? are you in one of the arcades or another firm training you up?

you will find that you need to test all the different types of averages with crossovers within different timeframes. you will settle of something and then change it!! write a journal of what your system is, there is a trading plan template on this site somewhere.

You can pretty much throw all indicators out of the window intraday and just use them during the weekly analysis.

the big boys look at the 50 and 200's short terms flip down

you can have variants that use 5, 8, 9, 13, 20, 21, 34, 50, 55, 144, 200, 233.

Some of those are fibonacci numbers. im not telling which ones i use!! have a play.

Thanks for the input.

No its not me thats a prop trader 3 mths in its Traceyjc.

All the best!

 

[francisfinley]

Thanks for the input.

No its not me thats a prop trader 3 mths in its Traceyjc.

All the best!

the point is you can have any MA you want. you can say right the price x's X and you trade or an MA xover. you can even put a shift on the MA and use that as the crossover. the possibilities are endless.

 

[dr.blix]

You keeping a trading journal B?

i do mate yeah.

only a small one though, to record my good/bad call ratio (you can imagine what that looks like!) and P&L, with a few notes (with an increasing amount of bad language :whistling).

essential though to have some form of diary/journal.

 

[wallstreet1928]

ooh that's interesting WS. i found using geometric lines really interesting, but come 2.30 they usually went to pot.

i used 45 degree angles for a week once (8.00 - 2.30) and they seemed to fit as a general guide really well.

what i've found now is that strong moves leave 'echoes', or like ripples on a pond...you can latch lines onto these important events and then copy them over and over as the echoes of the event fades.

I personally use geometric trend line analysis along with the leading stocks in the sectors ........

you must wait for confirmation along with certain stocks break out at the same time!!

take S&P @ present

it broke out of 942 level ..............I used Exxon, Goldman, JP morgan ........Nadsdaq above 1505 prev resistance , oil approaching $70, Eur,GBp rallying as indicators to go long and my target is 947 !!

I make it sound easy but with experience you need to know all these markets and then you will know the support and resistance levels of all these markets.........

it will take time but it will eventually be like playing a piano.........

US dollar rules at present ..................If you can chart the Dollar you can trade any market at present?

I also use currencies............

 

[wallstreet1928]

Thanks ws. an experienced stock broker i have done some deals with is in the same camp. From my point of view i am just looking into everything and as there are so many i am trying to short cut a bit.

As i posted the other day sometimes you can look to deep and miss what is happening!

Do you just look at S/R and make a call with what is going on?

All the best

By the way, as i respect your opinion, as a newbie, where would you suggest i focus my study time instead of indicators?:smart:

forget the books, I have never read any just skimmed through them ............

Just join ITMS and you will learn on the job

YouTube - Market Technical Analysis - Market Trades Sideways Again Ahead Of 10 Year Tomorrow 06/09/2009

 

[dr.blix]

Yeah Blix I work for a stockbroking firm as a prop trader, only 3months in and before I was a theoretical physicist so i'm really quite new to all of this! What about yourself? Are you just giving apread betting a go or are you looking to keep it going?

theoretical physicist wow. impressive.

i've just read 'Cityboy' by Geraint Anderson (really funny), and he was saying how the finance industry was sapping the brains from important fields like science!

regarding indicators trace, i'm not a fan of bollinger bands, they just don't seem to work in volatile up swings...have you tried Stoller Bands?

i've not used a decent data vendor yet, so i've not had an opportunity to use them, but they look a lot better than bollinger bands. if you like i can give you an apparently good parameter formula for them.

oh, and regarding me, i have no financial background (as you can probably tell). i'm a record producer, i got interested in equities last year and slowly got sucked into this stuff. now i'm trying to learn tech analysis in a hands on manner as quickly as possible with very low risk, so i thought SBing with tiny contract sizes was a good way to go.

 

[wallstreet1928]

i do mate yeah.

only a small one though, to record my good/bad call ratio (you can imagine what that looks like!) and P&L, with a few notes (with an increasing amount of bad language :whistling).

essential though to have some form of diary/journal.

after looking at your posts recently i would suggest you work :

1. allowing the trades to come to you rather than chasing them, thinking you will the boat

2. you are too trigger happy ...........focus and spend more time researching and do 2-3 trades a day rather than 10-15

3 . stop loss ........you need to have at least 20 pints minimum as stop loss to give your self a chance.

4 . emotionally attached - open your trade, set a stop loss and limit order and walk away from your PC , you can check every 15-30 min intervals to see the outcome

please don't take this as criticism my friend

I just want to help

I am not perfect , far from it

 

[wallstreet1928]

I personally use geometric trend line analysis along with the leading stocks in the sectors ........

you must wait for confirmation along with certain stocks break out at the same time!!

take S&P @ present

it broke out of 942 level ..............I used Exxon, Goldman, JP morgan ........Nadsdaq above 1505 prev resistance , oil approaching $70, Eur,GBp rallying as indicators to go long and my target is 947 !!

I make it sound easy but with experience you need to know all these markets and then you will know the support and resistance levels of all these markets.........

it will take time but it will eventually be like playing a piano.........

US dollar rules at present ..................If you can chart the Dollar you can trade any market at present?

I also use currencies............

target achieved ................

i am currently ocntemplating a short now but i will wait for the market to come into a sweet spot

wait for the market to tell you it wants to fall

 

[masnachu]

"Market participants are awaiting a $35 billion auction of three-year U.S. Treasury notes later in the day and auctions of 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasurys later in the week to get a better picture of rate expectations."

any idea what time it is chaps?

Not sure on the 3yr (imagine it's over already) , but the 10yr notes are Wednesday 1pm Eastern, and 30yr bonds are Thursday, again 1pm Eastern.

 

[dr.blix]

after looking at your posts recently i would suggest you work :

1. allowing the trades to come to you rather than chasing them, thinking you will the boat

2. you are too trigger happy ...........focus and spend more time researching and do 2-3 trades a day rather than 10-15

3 . stop loss ........you need to have at least 20 pints minimum as stop loss to give your self a chance.

4 . emotionally attached - open your trade, set a stop loss and limit order and walk away from your PC , you can check every 15-30 min intervals to see the outcome

please don't take this as criticism my friend

I just want to help

I am not perfect , far from it

hey WS you're not criticising!

even if you were you can do it as much as you like because i haven't got a clue what i'm doing and i really appreciate any and all advice or criticism from people on here!

thanks, as ever for the advice, i'm doing too much gambling and not enough thinking. i really do need to work on my objective emotional detachment.

 

[kaisen]

forget the books, I have never read any just skimmed through them ............

Just join ITMS and you will learn on the job

YouTube - Market Technical Analysis - Market Trades Sideways Again Ahead Of 10 Year Tomorrow 06/09/2009

Thanks ws, and nice post to Dr Blix. Wish I had placed a larger stop today. Placed at 10ptns and got stopped out by 4pnts!

Given the price of oil, cable, etc etc who is gonna win the twenty20?

By the way, given your love of Cricket, where are you based?

 

[Dentalfloss]

range getting constricted.which way will it break

 

[Dentalfloss]

interveiw with nicole elliot of mizuho...saying the treasury yield spike was overdone
Video - CNBC.com

 

[dr.blix]

regarding stops on the FTSE, i probably need to use larger ones, but i've been using 14-15 pt stops recently.

what i've found is, the FTSE's S&R levels (on a 10min TF) are usually divisible by 10(ish) points.

if you're swing trading, monitoring closely and believe you're at the outside edge of the days trading range at the daily high/low and expect a reversal, then a 15 pt stop may give you a 1 S&R level move without stopping you out and without leaving you with a large loss to then make up.

however i can see that, if you're less sure about the range and your indicators, then a 30 pt stop may give you 2, poss 3 S&R levels move without stopping you out. but if a large move comes against you, you're going to be constantly struggling to make that back.

am i stating the obvious/talking nonsense here?

 

[wallstreet1928]

Thanks ws, and nice post to Dr Blix. Wish I had placed a larger stop today. Placed at 10ptns and got stopped out by 4pnts!

Given the price of oil, cable, etc etc who is gonna win the twenty20?

By the way, given your love of Cricket, where are you based?

back from cricket practise

I am based in Manchester and I play for Heaton Mersey CC..........

I am supporting South Africa to win 20/20 , Hershelle Gibbs my favourite player ......

 

[wallstreet1928]

regarding stops on the FTSE, i probably need to use larger ones, but i've been using 14-15 pt stops recently.

what i've found is, the FTSE's S&R levels (on a 10min TF) are usually divisible by 10(ish) points.

if you're swing trading, monitoring closely and believe you're at the outside edge of the days trading range at the daily high/low and expect a reversal, then a 15 pt stop may give you a 1 S&R level move without stopping you out and without leaving you with a large loss to then make up.

however i can see that, if you're less sure about the range and your indicators, then a 30 pt stop may give you 2, poss 3 S&R levels move without stopping you out. but if a large move comes against you, you're going to be constantly struggling to make that back.

am i stating the obvious/talking nonsense here?

There is no optimal/ideal stop loss, otherwise we would all be succesfull

you need to experiment and see what's best for you in terms of profitability

you have tried 10-15 points - keep a journal on the success rate

now try 20 points and see the results

try 25 points and see the results

place a maximum of 3 trades a day.............no more !!

and then post your results on a weekly basis on this thread......

It will help you and all the other newbies on this thread ........

 

[wallstreet1928]

target achieved ................

i am currently ocntemplating a short now but i will wait for the market to come into a sweet spot

wait for the market to tell you it wants to fall

The short worked out well

947 level hard to crack ........

 

[dr.blix]

good idea with the stop test WS, cheers.

 

[dr.blix]

FTSE daily has the general shape of an ascending triangle, but has the rebounds hits of a rising wedge...both with very different outcomes unfortunately.

 

[Dentalfloss]

cnbc interveiw with roger nightingalhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1146504081&play=1
bad economic news to come out of china and india



Video - CNBC.com