Technical Trading - my 2 cents !!!!

[vegas]

Hi All,

I am in the very fortunate position of been mentored by Iraj, and, as you can see by the numbers of my posts, have been 'around' for some time. I always promised myself, that if I ever 'had' something to share with the wider community, then, I would at least try to, as a way of thanking all those here, who I have learned from on this journey of mine. Especially as to date, I have just been a 'receiver'.

I first met Iraj way back in the spring of 2006, when I spent a very memorable day with the man in his home, and since then, I have kept in regular contact, culminating, in this opportunity, which, is all been given to me free. For those that know Iraj, will understand, why he does not want compensation, yet, if I were asked to try and place a monetary value on my learnings and progress these past couple of weeks, I honestly could not, it would be immeasurable.

Okay, so what have I learned. Well, firstly, and most critically, I have learned, that 'it can be done'. But, you must, you must, immerse yourself in the Technical Trader posts. Sure, I have a huge advantage, I am been mentored by Iraj, but, what I have learned are all within this forum. It is all here. One of my problems, in why I was struggling (I can now see), was I kept getting side-tracked, lookings at this indicator or that indicator, trying to read volume, crossing over to a momentum style of trading etc..etc.......and all at the same time as reading about Technical Trading. Now, my charts just shows price, that is it, and then beside me at all times, I have a chart of the $INDU, over 1, 5, and 10 minutes, with the MACCI. That is it, but, please believe, when I say that the MACCI (with 10 minute as the lead !) is like a crystal ball to the markets. You must study it, all day, it has to be always in front of you, but, it makes trading so predictable....sure not 100%, but, it is very, very accurate. Once, you have the direction right, and you believe in it, hell, you are so close. After this you must get your risk right, you must have the strategy, and you must have your stocks, all of these are provided within these forums. This was one of the eye openers for me, how, everything is included within the forum.....the 'risk' piece has been discussed so many times, the swing strategy of how I am trading was posted in the last couple of months and the portfolio that I am currently swing trading is totally, 100%, from the list of weak stocks that Iraj provided on Beflan's Thread, also fairly recently. It is all here.

Well I do hope that my passion has come out adequately....I am not too use to this writing business, but, I am just trying to get across that this can be done. But, you must believe in it.

Thanks for reading.
Frank.

 

[Ultramarine]

Encouraging words Frank. Thanks for reporting in. Here's wishing you continued success and hopefully hearing of it from you in the future. All help is welcome.

Al

 

[jayjay121]

with all due respect, it is all here in this forum, your right as you have now found out, but being mentored has brang everything together for you, this is the difference, you can see it now. In my opinion working along side a successfull trader can have this kind of impact.

So how long you been profitbale with greys methods, if you don't mind me asking?
and what of his strategies are you trading or having most success with?

Would you be willing to answer questions on this board regarding grey1's trading to help out some of us understand his techniques better? as grey just don't seem to have the time to.


regards,

jason

 

[vegas]

Encouraging words Frank. Thanks for reporting in. Here's wishing you continued success and hopefully hearing of it from you in the future. All help is welcome.

Al

Thanks Al, appreciate your words. I will post further.

Frank.

 

[vegas]

with all due respect, it is all here in this forum, your right as you have now found out, but being mentored has brang everything together for you, this is the difference, you can see it now. In my opinion working along side a successfull trader can have this kind of impact.

So how long you been profitbale with greys methods, if you don't mind me asking?
and what of his strategies are you trading or having most success with?

Would you be willing to answer questions on this board regarding grey1's trading to help out some of us understand his techniques better? as grey just don't seem to have the time to.


regards,


Hi Jason,

Of course, I have an advantage, I readily accept that, it is the truth. I did not post here, to upset or annoy anyone, it is not my intention or my desire. I just thought that I may be able to help some.

To answer your questions : I have only been trading with Iraj for about 3 weeks now. My Swings are the mainstay with scalping to make up for any daily shortfall on the swings. I have a long way to go, but, would be happy to answer any questions, that I am able to.

Frank

 

[jdbzero]

To answer your questions : I have only been trading with Iraj for about 3 weeks now. My Swings are the mainstay with scalping to make up for any daily shortfall on the swings. I have a long way to go, but, would be happy to answer any questions, that I am able to.

Frank

Hi Frank,

Thanks for taking the time for sharing your experiences with us. If you could shed some light on a few areas I find troublesome that would be great.

As you have pointed out, almost all the information that is required to trade in the style of Grey1 is to be found within this members board; it is for us mere mortals to take that, fill in the gaps and mould it into something that suits our own style. As Grey1 has many times suggested, swing trading is the best place to start and so that's what I am in the process of doing. I am using the list of stocks that has been provided and following the basic swing stratagy that has been outlined. The specific questions that I have are:

• What stop to use? Grey1 said something more than daily ATR. Is 1.5xATR too much?
• How do you finetune entry? If we want to enter when the stocks MACCI is overbought to save a few cents, how does that fit in with selling at the low of the day ?(for shorts of course)

Any thoughts on this appreciated.

Thanks and best of luck
Jonathan

 

[belflan]

Hi All,

I am in the very fortunate position of been mentored by Iraj, and, as you can see by the numbers of my posts, have been 'around' for some time. I always promised myself, that if I ever 'had' something to share with the wider community, then, I would at least try to, as a way of thanking all those here, who I have learned from on this journey of mine. Especially as to date, I have just been a 'receiver'.

I first met Iraj way back in the spring of 2006, when I spent a very memorable day with the man in his home, and since then, I have kept in regular contact, culminating, in this opportunity, which, is all been given to me free. For those that know Iraj, will understand, why he does not want compensation, yet, if I were asked to try and place a monetary value on my learnings and progress these past couple of weeks, I honestly could not, it would be immeasurable.

Okay, so what have I learned. Well, firstly, and most critically, I have learned, that 'it can be done'. But, you must, you must, immerse yourself in the Technical Trader posts. Sure, I have a huge advantage, I am been mentored by Iraj, but, what I have learned are all within this forum. It is all here. One of my problems, in why I was struggling (I can now see), was I kept getting side-tracked, lookings at this indicator or that indicator, trying to read volume, crossing over to a momentum style of trading etc..etc.......and all at the same time as reading about Technical Trading. Now, my charts just shows price, that is it, and then beside me at all times, I have a chart of the $INDU, over 1, 5, and 10 minutes, with the MACCI. That is it, but, please believe, when I say that the MACCI (with 10 minute as the lead !) is like a crystal ball to the markets. You must study it, all day, it has to be always in front of you, but, it makes trading so predictable....sure not 100%, but, it is very, very accurate. Once, you have the direction right, and you believe in it, hell, you are so close. After this you must get your risk right, you must have the strategy, and you must have your stocks, all of these are provided within these forums. This was one of the eye openers for me, how, everything is included within the forum.....the 'risk' piece has been discussed so many times, the swing strategy of how I am trading was posted in the last couple of months and the portfolio that I am currently swing trading is totally, 100%, from the list of weak stocks that Iraj provided on Beflan's Thread, also fairly recently. It is all here.

Well I do hope that my passion has come out adequately....I am not too use to this writing business, but, I am just trying to get across that this can be done. But, you must believe in it.

Thanks for reading.
Frank.

nice one Frank,

great to here this, great post, please hang around and share what you can

cheers
glen

 

[vegas]

Hi Frank,

Thanks for taking the time for sharing your experiences with us. If you could shed some light on a few areas I find troublesome that would be great.

As you have pointed out, almost all the information that is required to trade in the style of Grey1 is to be found within this members board; it is for us mere mortals to take that, fill in the gaps and mould it into something that suits our own style. As Grey1 has many times suggested, swing trading is the best place to start and so that's what I am in the process of doing. I am using the list of stocks that has been provided and following the basic swing stratagy that has been outlined. The specific questions that I have are:

• What stop to use? Grey1 said something more than daily ATR. Is 1.5xATR too much?
• How do you finetune entry? If we want to enter when the stocks MACCI is overbought to save a few cents, how does that fit in with selling at the low of the day ?(for shorts of course)

Any thoughts on this appreciated.

Thanks and best of luck
Jonathan

Hi Jonathan,

No problem in giving to you my thoughts. Just as an aside, I want to add that Iraj is happy (and encouraging) me to do so. I'm sure he will also intercede if I happen to 'blow of course'. I can only do my best.

Okay. Going into today's market and especially bearing in mind we had the nfp numbers, I had 17 positions open, all short, but, 'no stops' in place. Why, well I am trading in Weak Stocks, fundamentally weak, and I am well diversified with proper position sizing. Also, technically I am correct, as all my stocks were overbought when I shorted and going into today were still not oversold, so no need to close. Sure, the market could have run +200pts, and my positions would have suffered some, but, as they are fundamentally weak they would'nt suffer half as much as if I was Short Strong Stocks. I can wait, as the fundamentals are on my size, plus, remember fear is stronger than greed, so better to be short, especially in these times. Please remember, regarding the above, that I am at my desk during the day, now, if you are uncomfortable with no stop in place, then yes, you can use a 1 or 1.5 ATR.

If I am fundamentally and technically correct, and my risk is managed and under control, then, I can do no more.

Answering your 2nd question. So the stock's MACCI is overbought on the Daily. This has been identified, the night before. Now, the following day, we want to short this stock, but, we must wait for a good entry, so using firstly, the $INDU MACCI on the 10 minute (waiting for it to be overbought) and at the same time, requiring that the particular stock is preferably below mid point of it's days range, i.e. is weak on the day. There is no use shorting it if it is strong on the day.

Hope this helps.
Frank.

 

[vegas]

Thanks Glen, will do.

Regards,
Frank.

 

[jdbzero]

...
Hope this helps.
Frank.

Very much so. Thanks for your thoughts; some ideas to be getting on with.

Jonathan

 

[dcraig1]

Hi Jonathan,

No problem in giving to you my thoughts. Just as an aside, I want to add that Iraj is happy (and encouraging) me to do so. I'm sure he will also intercede if I happen to 'blow of course'. I can only do my best.

Okay. Going into today's market and especially bearing in mind we had the nfp numbers, I had 17 positions open, all short, but, 'no stops' in place. Why, well I am trading in Weak Stocks, fundamentally weak, and I am well diversified with proper position sizing. Also, technically I am correct, as all my stocks were overbought when I shorted and going into today were still not oversold, so no need to close. Sure, the market could have run +200pts, and my positions would have suffered some, but, as they are fundamentally weak they would'nt suffer half as much as if I was Short Strong Stocks. I can wait, as the fundamentals are on my size, plus, remember fear is stronger than greed, so better to be short, especially in these times. Please remember, regarding the above, that I am at my desk during the day, now, if you are uncomfortable with no stop in place, then yes, you can use a 1 or 1.5 ATR.

If I am fundamentally and technically correct, and my risk is managed and under control, then, I can do no more.

Answering your 2nd question. So the stock's MACCI is overbought on the Daily. This has been identified, the night before. Now, the following day, we want to short this stock, but, we must wait for a good entry, so using firstly, the $INDU MACCI on the 10 minute (waiting for it to be overbought) and at the same time, requiring that the particular stock is preferably below mid point of it's days range, i.e. is weak on the day. There is no use shorting it if it is strong on the day.

Hope this helps.
Frank.

What are your criteria for "fundamentally weak" ? Thanks.

 

[moreagr]

nice to read this post and your success with grey1's stratagies.

this was a stressful day for me but I was profitable.... but I did not start trading until 2;45pm ET. when the meat of the move happened already.

 

[Grey1]

Hi Jonathan,

No problem in giving to you my thoughts. Just as an aside, I want to add that Iraj is happy (and encouraging) me to do so. I'm sure he will also intercede if I happen to 'blow of course'. I can only do my best.

Okay. Going into today's market and especially bearing in mind we had the nfp numbers, I had 17 positions open, all short, but, 'no stops' in place. Why, well I am trading in Weak Stocks, fundamentally weak, and I am well diversified with proper position sizing. Also, technically I am correct, as all my stocks were overbought when I shorted and going into today were still not oversold, so no need to close. Sure, the market could have run +200pts, and my positions would have suffered some, but, as they are fundamentally weak they would'nt suffer half as much as if I was Short Strong Stocks. I can wait, as the fundamentals are on my size, plus, remember fear is stronger than greed, so better to be short, especially in these times. Please remember, regarding the above, that I am at my desk during the day, now, if you are uncomfortable with no stop in place, then yes, you can use a 1 or 1.5 ATR.

If I am fundamentally and technically correct, and my risk is managed and under control, then, I can do no more.

Answering your 2nd question. So the stock's MACCI is overbought on the Daily. This has been identified, the night before. Now, the following day, we want to short this stock, but, we must wait for a good entry, so using firstly, the $INDU MACCI on the 10 minute (waiting for it to be overbought) and at the same time, requiring that the particular stock is preferably below mid point of it's days range, i.e. is weak on the day. There is no use shorting it if it is strong on the day.

Hope this helps.
Frank.

HI guys,,

Can i just mention that the reason for having 17 positions open is to reduce risk , I am more interested in risk to my capital at all stage of my trading life than the amount of reward I possibly might take,, IN another word I take care of risk and reward takes take of itself.. New traders are like gangsters ,, they see the reward and not give a damn about the risk ,, just like those who rub the bank ,, They see themselves driving that Porsche but forgetting how it is to be behind the bars,,

If i was a hedge fund manager and you came for a job to me I would be more interested in your knowledge in controlling risk than your dodgy MA cross overs or this or that indicator


so DIVERSIFICATION in various sectors = Spreading the risk hence 17 stocks. This is Rule 1

Next is perfect ENTRY Perfect entry = zero risk ,,, the better the entry the lower the risk ,, We have discussed this many times. People say it is the EXIT which determines final portfolio growth ,, I would say I do not give a monkey how much growth i make I how ever am concern in NOT LOSING ,,, This is rule 2

Finally , is a top down approach ,, if you trade in the direction of the market then you reduce risk ,,, Again RISK comes first,,, we have discussed this 100 times in the past.

VEGAS has grasped these 3 concepts in 3 weeks and applied them with recovering 40% of his 12 month losses in only 2 weeks and I am pleased to say he is in a position to mentor any one just as good as myself and more than any thing else apply the same techniques in SCALPING the volatile stocks such as AAPL, RIMM with a massive success rate. I have called him MR SAFE BET to day after scalping RIMM with more and less zero risk attached to his trade

Well done VEGAS


I cannot say how much VEGAS's wins have been in such a short period but I can assure you he has a massive smile on his face and to be quite honnest I am 100% confident that he does not need much mentoring from here on wards but it took me 3 weeks to cover the entire techniques using LIVE DEMONSTRATION with REAL MONEY ON LINE and no Mickey mouse charts set ups , volume anlaysis,Level 2, ,,,,,


Grey1

 

[TheBramble]

...I am trading in Weak Stocks, fundamentally weak...

Hi Frank. How are you assessing stocks on a fundamental level?

 

[jayjay121]

Hi Frank. How are you assessing stocks on a fundamental level?

hi, i would like to know this too?.....and what kind of fundamental data should i be looking at in determining weak or strong stocks?


appreciate it if you could give us some insight,


jason

 

[Glenn]

hi, i would like to know this too?.....and what kind of fundamental data should i be looking at in determining weak or strong stocks?


appreciate it if you could give us some insight,


jason

I suspect that Frank means technically weak rather than fundamentally weak.
If so then the criteria have already been described in another thread in this TT forum.
Glenn

 

[jayjay121]

I suspect that Frank means technically weak rather than fundamentally weak.
If so then the criteria have already been described in another thread in this TT forum.
Glenn

Yeah but to be fair we all keep saying its there in this forum but there is just so much, and surely we don't need it all, i thought grey's style was simple and if so can't somebody just tell us exactly what we should be looking at, be pacific, tell us exactly where and what and in what order. Please it would help alot and ive read so much of it, too much of it and it feels like i still don't get it fully. if its so simple why are you and vegas the only ones on here having any joy with it?...........i asked out in a previous thread if any body else apart from grey had been successfull like grey and only one person came forward, and now you..............that's not a very good return if you ask me and it seems no-one else can trade it the way grey does, why is this if it is so simple?, i don't get it............grey says things like traders who trade with indicators or volume or trade ma cross-overs are basically mugs, but im confussed as over at other forums traders like tkimble, tro and many more are having great consistent success and there systems are alot more simple to understand, and also if you take a look there you'll see other traders having alot of joy with these kind of simple systems.

Im just trying to get my head together really and don't mean any offence to anybody so please don't take it that way, but in my opinion its about time somebody had the balls to come forward and confront these issues, because all in all im at the point in my trading where i want to pick the system ill trade and then learn it fully, and at the moment im not sure grey1's methods are really for me, if i could see a higher return of success from others, i would say yes, but i just don't see it.


jason

 

[vegas]

hi, i would like to know this too?.....and what kind of fundamental data should i be looking at in determining weak or strong stocks?


appreciate it if you could give us some insight,


jason

Hi Jason and The Bramble,

Okay, now I knew this question would be asked, and it is probably the area where I need the most work. Let me answer in 2 parts :

1. The simple answer is that in the short term, I do not (and all on this BB also), have to worry about how to fundamentally assess a company's internals. Grey1, has already posted his list of weak and strong stocks. This list, is 'his' fundamental analysis. My swing portfolio is 'entirely' made up of this list. Therefore, all we have to do is wait for the 'weak' stocks to become technically overbought, for shorting. Whilst, of course, taking account of risk through diversification and position sizing and waiting for a good entry.

2. However, in the medium term, I will have a lot of reading and studying to do on valuation models to be able to do this work myself


Apologies. if this does'nt really help. however, it is the truth.

Regards,
Frank.

 

[TheBramble]

Apologies. if this does'nt really help. however, it is the truth.

It does help Frank. Knowing that you use stocks which are fundamentally weak and wait for them to become technically weak is useful. That Grey1 is carrying out some form of fundamental analysis of stocks ties in I am sure with his established longer term investment goals. Looks like he is using that analysis on which to base his (and yours) shorter term technical trading activities.

Can't have too much of or too many good things.

 

[vegas]

Yeah but to be fair we all keep saying its there in this forum but there is just so much, and surely we don't need it all, i thought grey's style was simple and if so can't somebody just tell us exactly what we should be looking at, be pacific, tell us exactly where and what and in what order. Please it would help alot and ive read so much of it, too much of it and it feels like i still don't get it fully. if its so simple why are you and vegas the only ones on here having any joy with it?...........i asked out in a previous thread if any body else apart from grey had been successfull like grey and only one person came forward, and now you..............that's not a very good return if you ask me and it seems no-one else can trade it the way grey does, why is this if it is so simple?, i don't get it............grey says things like traders who trade with indicators or volume or trade ma cross-overs are basically mugs, but im confussed as over at other forums traders like tkimble, tro and many more are having great consistent success and there systems are alot more simple to understand, and also if you take a look there you'll see other traders having alot of joy with these kind of simple systems.

Im just trying to get my head together really and don't mean any offence to anybody so please don't take it that way, but in my opinion its about time somebody had the balls to come forward and confront these issues, because all in all im at the point in my trading where i want to pick the system ill trade and then learn it fully, and at the moment im not sure grey1's methods are really for me, if i could see a higher return of success from others, i would say yes, but i just don't see it.


jason

Hi Jason,

Straight talking, that is fine. You make some interesting comments that I would like to take the opportunity to address.

First up, you mentioned other forums traders like 'tkimble, tro', that are having 'great consistent success' with systems that are alot 'more simple to understand'. How do you know this Jason, have you seem their Daily P/L's over several years. I doubt it, as I know the forums you are referring to. Now maybe, I am wrong, however, in all my years, Iraj, is the only trader I can remember who shares his P/L. Sure, maybe, they are successful, and if so, good luck to them, but, do you honestly know. But, you do know Iraj is very successful.

It is of course, upto you, if you want to follow other strategies. I have, in the past, but, with little success, now, that does'nt mean you won't of course be very successful. But, you must pick and stay with one strategy, and see it through.

Regarding Technical Trading, I am actually unsure of what you want. I have tried to answer questions as honestly as possible. You have the list of weak and strong stocks, I assume you have the MACCI, have studied the $INDU MACCI, use the 10minute as the lead, but, watch also the 1 minute and 5 minute (more the 5), know how to pick your stocks based on the stocks Daily MACCI, understand the 'top down' approach, understand what overbought and oversold means, know that the more positions you have open in cross sectors the better diversified you are, and know that your postion sizing is best to come off the Dailly ATR of the stock in question at 1%. So, with all this, and absorbing the answer 'above' that I posted to Jonathan concerning 'entry'. You have the Swing Strategy.

Now, if you have more specific questions additionally, great, I will try of course and answer them.

Thanks,
Frank.