See it now

EFFORTFUL STUDY is the key

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa006&colID=1&articleID=00010347-101C-14C1-8F9E83414B7F4945

Without a demonstrably immense superiority in skill over the novice, there can be no true experts, only laypeople with imposing credentials. Such, alas, are all too common. Rigorous studies in the past two decades have shown that professional stock pickers invest no more successfully than amateurs, that noted connoisseurs distinguish wines hardly better than yokels, and that highly credentialed psychiatric therapists help patients no more than colleagues with less advanced degrees. And even when expertise undoubtedly exists--as in, say, teaching or business management--it is often hard to measure, let alone explain.

That what matters is not experience per se but "effortful study," which entails continually tackling challenges that lie just beyond one's competence

It is interesting to note that time spent playing chess, even in tournaments, appears to contribute less than such study to a player's progress; the main training value of such games is to point up weaknesses for future study.


Even the novice engages in effortful study at first, which is why beginners so often improve rapidly in playing golf, say, or in driving a car. But having reached an acceptable performance--for instance, keeping up with one's golf buddies or passing a driver's exam--most people relax. Their performance then becomes automatic and therefore impervious to further improvement.

In contrast, experts-in-training keep the lid of their mind's box open all the time, so that they can inspect, criticize and augment its contents and thereby approach the standard set by leaders in their fields.
 
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Surfing

a trader exploits his capital to ride dominant marketcycles as a surfer exploits his surfboard to ride big waves
 

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x minute and y cents

x min. candle chart
I overlay my targetinstrument with candles of x minutes because I can think and act within a timeframe of x min. The x min timeframe has a long term average(1000) of y cents. I also have chosen the x min timeframe because y cents correspondents with my initial risktolerance stop for all new positions. So in fact my inital risktollerance against any new position is max(the long term) average of the x min bar.

y cent candle chart
Besides the x min candles chart, I also use a cent chart. On this chart all candles are of length y cents. This chart is relatively clean compared to the x min. candle chart.
I have calibrated x versus y so that price, if it is really moving, frequently prints very distinct smooth vertical legs on the cent chart.

For instance:
-x min is 5 min;
-y cents is 10 cents.

super
 
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buying and selling waves and keylevels

x min. candle chart
From the x minute chart I read how the strength of buying and selling waves in my target market are inspired/dampened by the wave strength/weakness of two very carefully chosen correlated instruments.


y cent candle chart
On this chart I draw key levels. (almost every day Im impressed how well these key levels foretell minimal wave potential). Before a trading session I draw the key levels based on 3*y cent candles. During a trading session I might add a key level. In real time I base the addition of a keylevel on what happend in respect to the y cent candles.
 
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Realtime Dashboard

First chart is y cent candles(didnt need to draw any new keylevel today)

Second chart is x min chart with correlated instrument:
1 (seablue)
2 (redheart)
 

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JOHN SHINAL'S TECH INVESTOR

Feeling lucky?

Commentary: Large-cap tech now a trading game

By John Shinal, MarketWatch

Last Update: 7:02 AM ET Jul 26, 2006




The psychology of greed is illustrated by something that my mortgage broker told me in August of 2002, after I congratulated him for selling some of his Cisco stake at a price over $40 a share. (When people know you write about tech stocks, they tend to volunteer this type of information.)
"Yes," he said, "but it kills me to think I could have sold it at $60."

I'm not sure what he did with the rest of his Cisco shares. But time after time, we see that the largest amounts of investment flows out of mutual funds occur at or near market bottoms. In other words, people sell stocks out of fear, after holding them too long out of greed.

The point is that if you don't know when you plan to sell an investment as volatile as a technology stock, you do yourself a big disservice by buying it in the first place.

There are many people who do have such discipline, but most of them are professional money managers who get paid whether the stocks they buy go up or down. That helps alleviate the fear part.

Many so-called day traders also follow such disciplined strategies. But, again, buying and selling stocks is something they do for a living. The rest of us have other things to do.

It's not just that most retail investors don't know when to sell stocks. They also make the mistake of thinking that stocks behave rationally.

If a company comes out with an important new product ahead of its rivals or keeps posting sales and profit growth, the stock should go up, right?
 
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Max variable cost of doing business=

y cent + transaction cost + spread + average downside slippage
=
y cent + (1 + 1 + 3) cent
=
(y + 5) cent

where
average downside slippage=
prudent loss-forecast of
executed versus expected-price
 
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economic news today+ daily macro context(abstract)

8:30 9:45 10:00
 

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  1. Weak-Form Efficiency - Current market prices fully reflect all past pricing and volume data.
 
De la Vega (172) wrote, “The Exchange business is comparable to a game. Some
of the players behave like princes and combine strength with tenderness and amiability with
intelligence, but there are some participants who lose their reputation and others who lack
devotion to their business even before play begins.
http://www.sjsu.edu/stringham/Stringham.Amsterdam.pdf
 
Cosmic riples

These ripples in the microwave radiation, they said, were the primordial framework on which the galaxies, stars and other stuff of the universe took shape.
thistle.gif
Student Encyclopedia Article
large areas of space-time with minute variations in temperature first detected in 1992 by United States astrophysicist George F. Smoot. The ripples were predicted by the big bang theory. Their discovery was based on data from the observation satellite COBE (Cosmic Background Explorer). The instruments on COBE called differential microwave radiometers (DMR) provided precise measurements to create maps of the microwave background in the cosmic universe.
 

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Can someone please tell me the purpose of these posts???

CYOF
 
That is not an answer - just wondering what you are trying to do?
 
CYOF said:
That is not an answer - just wondering what you are trying to do?
In this thread I record all sorts of aspect/thoughts/ideas that pop up during the modeling of my business closer (and closer) to the dynamic cycles of my chosen target market.

I record all of this, so that if necessary, I can relate to each of them at will.

I do understand that the relationship or relevance of each and every post might not be clear for (all) outsiders.

Be aware some post are in fundamental contradiction to other post. I do cherish contradictory idea’s.

Take care
super
 
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Now that is an answer.

As the saying goes - everyone to their own.

Best of luck with your trading - or should I say - I wish you positive results with your business venture - as luck really has nothing to do with successful trading.

Regards,

CYOF
 
Good article - may be more suited for the long term investor, but can be very profitable if you don't mind the risk that will be required with very wide stops?

Having said that - price / time analysis is used by a lot of daytraders, especially trading the ES E-mini. A good follow up to this may be to search for articles on W.D.Gann.
 
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