See it now

Weekend reflection

Master the Four Fears of Trading
November 2002
Originally Published
in Stock Futures and Options Magazine
by: Price Headley

Merriam-Webster's dictionary defines fear as "an unpleasant, often strong emotion caused by anticipation or awareness of danger, going on to explain that fear...implies anxiety and usually the loss of courage." This definition of fear is useful in helping define the issues that traders face when coping with fear. The reality is that all traders feel fear at some level, but the key is how we prepare to address our concerns related to taking on risk as a trader. In this article I will review four major fears experienced by traders, and I'll take it a step further by noting how the outcomes of these fears create undesirable trading behaviors. Basically, my aim is to have you walk away with an understanding of these dangers so you can and implement strategies that will address your fears and let you get on with your trading plan.

Mark Douglas, an expert in trading psychology, noted in his book, Trading in the Zone, that most investors believe they know what is going to happen next. This causes traders to put too much weight on the outcome of the current trade, while not assessing their performance as "a probability game" that they are playing over time. This manifests itself in investors getting too high and too low and causes them to react emotionally, with excessive fear or greed after a series of losses or wins.
As the importance of an individual trade increases in the trader's mind, the fear level tends to increase as well. A trader becomes more hesitant and cautious, seeking to avoid a mistake. The risk of choking under pressure increases as the trader feels the pressure build.

All traders have fear, but winning traders manage their fear while losers are controlled by it. When faced with a potentially dangerous situation, the instinctive tendency is to revert to the "fight or flight" response. We can either prepare to do battle against the perceived threat, or we can flee from this danger. When an investor interprets a state of arousal negatively as fear or stress, performance is likely to be impaired. A trader will tend to ?freeze.? In contrast, when a trader feels the surge of adrenaline but interprets this as excitement or a state of greater alertness before placing a trade, then performance will tend to improve. Many great live performers talk of feeling butterflies just before they go on stage, and how they interpret this as a wake-up call to go out and perform at their highest level. That's clearly a more empowering response than someone who might interpret these butterflies as a reason to run back to his dressing room to get sick! Winners take positive action in spite of their fears.

1. Fear of Loss
Analysis Paralysis and Its Cousins

The fear of losing when making a trade often has several consequences. Fear of loss tends to make a trader hesitant to execute his trading plan. This can often lead to an inability to pull the trigger on new entries as well as on new exits. As a trader, you know that you need to be decisive in taking action when your approach dictates a new entry or exit, so when fear of loss holds you back from taking action, you also lose confidence in your ability to execute your trading plan. This causes a lack of trust in your method or,more importantly, in your own ability to execute future trades.

Thus, you can see how fear can set in place a vicious cycle of recurring doubt and, in turn, reinforce a traders' lack of confidence in executing new positions. For example, if you doubt you will actually be able to exit your position when your method tells you to get the heck out, then as a self-preservation mechanism you will also choose not to get into new trades. Thus begins the analysis paralysis, where you are merely looking at new trades but not getting the proper reinforcement to pull the trigger. In fact, the reinforcement is negative and actually pulls you away from making a move.

Looking deeper at why a trader cannot pull the trigger, I believe the root stems from a lack of confidence about the trading plan, which then causes the trader to believe that by not trading, he is moving away from potential pain as opposed to moving toward future gain. No one likes losses, but the reality is, of course, that even the best professionals will lose. The key is that they will lose much less, which allows them to remain in the game both financially and psychologically. The longer you can remain in the trading game with a sound method, the more likely you will start to experience a better run of trades that will take you out of any temporary trading slumps.

When you're having trouble pulling the trigger, realize that you are worrying too much about results and are not focused on your execution process. Make sure your have a written plan and then practice executing your plan.

Start with paper trades if you prefer, or consider trading smaller positions to get the fear of losing out of your system and get yourself focused on execution. When in the heat of battle and realizing you need to get in or out of a trade, consider using market orders, especially on the exit. That way you can't beat yourself up for not pulling the trigger on your trade.

Many traders may get too cute with a trade and try to work out of a position at a limit price better than the current market price, hoping they can squeeze more out of a trade. But as famed trader Jesse Livermore advised in the classic book Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre, ?give up trying to catch the last eighth.? Keep it simple with a market order to exit allows you to bring closure when you need it, which reinforces the confidence-building feelings that come from following your trading plan. In the past when my indicators noted it was time to exit, I have experienced firsthand the pain of not getting filled at my limit, watching the option drop and then placing a new limit back where I should have exited at the market in the first place! Then I have realized I was not going to get filled there either, so I again kept lowering my limit until, in frustration, I placed a market order to exit much lower than I could have closed the position initially. Not only can you feel the pain of loss financially but, more important, you can chip away at your internal state of confidence and create frustration by not getting filled.

You should be more concerned about avoiding big losses and less concerned about taking small losses. If you can?t bear to take a small loss, you will never give yourself an opportunity to be around when a big winning idea comes along, as every trade you enter has the risk of first turning against you for a loss. You must execute by knowing what your risk is in each trade, and define parameters to make sure you can ride favorable trends correctly as well so that your winners will be larger than you losers. And never get stuck in the mindset of hoping a loser will come back to "breakeven," as that is one of the trader's most deadly mental fantasies. Billions of dollars have been lost by technology investors hoping their stocks would bounce back in recent years to allow them to escape the downtrend. That only led to even greater losses in most cases. That's how a short-term trader can become a long-term investor unintentionally, and that is a position in which you never want to put yourself.

Ask how well you trust yourself to execute your trading plan. You want to judge your effectiveness based on how well you get in and out of the market when your method gives entry and exit signals. You?ll need to be decisive, not hesitant, know in your heart that your method is well tested and that your risk is low compared to your likely reward. In other words, you must be fully prepared before you go into the heat of battle during a trading day. You need to know where you will enter and where you will exit if you are a discretionary trader. Or you need to know what system you are following and be prepared to enter and exit as the system dictates. This keeps you disciplined and focused on following a process that can generate favorable results over time.

2. Fear of Missing Out
Being a Part of the Crowd Isn?t
Everything It's Cracked Up to Be

Every trend always has its doubters, but I often notice that many skeptics of a trend will slowly become converts due to the fear of missing out on profits or the pain of losses in betting against that trend. The fear of missing out can also be characterized as greed of a sorts, for an investor is not acting based on some desire to own the security - other than the fact that it is going up without him on board. This fear is often fueled during runaway booms like the technology bubble of the late-1990s, as investors heard their friends talking about newfound riches. The fear of missing out came into play for those who wanted to experience the same type of euphoria.

When you think about it, this is a very dangerous situation, as at this stage investors tend essentially to say, "Get me in at any price - I must participate in this hot trend!? The effect of the fear of missing out is a blindness to any potential downside risk, as it seems clear to the investor that there can only be gains ahead from such a "promising" and "obviously beneficial" trend. But there's nothing obvious about it.

We remember the stories of the Internet and how it would revolutionize the way business was done. While the Internet has indeed had a significant impact on our lives, the hype and frenzy for these stocks ramped up supply of every possible technology stock that could be brought public and created a situation where the incredibly high expectations could not possibly be met in reality. It is expectation gaps like this that often create serious risks for those who have piled into a trend late, once it has been widely broadcast in the media to all investors.

3. Fear of Letting a Profit Turn into a Loss

I get many more questions from subscribers asking if it is time to take a profit than I do subscribers asking when they should take their loss. This represents the fact that most traders do the opposite of the "let profits run, cut losses short" motto: they instead like to take quick profits while letting losers get out of control. Why would a trader do this? Too many traders tend to equate their net worth with their self-worth. They want to lock in a quick profit to guarantee that they feel like a winner.

How should you take profits? Should you utilize a fixed target profit objective, or should you only trail your stop on a winning trade until the trend breaks?

Those who can accept more risk should consider trailing a stop on their trending position, while more conservative traders may be more comfortable taking profits at their target objective. There is another alternative as well, which is to merge the two concepts by taking some profits off the table while seeking to ride the trend with a trailing stop on the remaining portion of the position.

When I trade options, I usually recommend taking half of the position off at a double or more, and then following the half position still open with a trailing stop. This allows you to have the opportunity to ride my best trading ideas further, as these are the trades where I am mostly likely to continue being right. Yet, I am also able to get the initial capital at risk back in my pocket, which frees me from worrying about letting a profit turn into a loss; I am guaranteed a breakeven even if the other half position were to go to nothing overnight. My general rule for the remaining half position is to exit if it reaches my trailing stop of half its maximum profit on an end-of-day closing basis, or scale out of the remaining half position every time it doubles again.

I?m also a big fan of moving your stop up to breakeven relatively quickly once the position starts to move in your favor, by about five percent on a stock or by roughly 25 percent on the option. It is also critical to recognize the impact of time spent waiting for a position to move. If you are not losing but not yet winning after several trading days, there are likely better opportunities elsewhere. This is known as a "time stop," and it will get your capital out of non-performers and free it up for fresher trading ideas.

4. Fear of Not Being Right - All Too Common

Too many traders care too much about being proven right in their analysis on each trade, as opposed to looking at trading as a probability game in which they will be both right and wrong on individual trades. In other words, their overall method will create positive results.

The desire to focus on being right instead of making money is a function of the individual's ego, and to be successful you must trade without ego at all costs. Ego leads to equating the trader?s net worth with his self-worth, which results in the desire to take winners too quickly and sit on losers in often-misguided hopes of exiting at a breakeven.

Trading results are often a mirror for where you are in your life. If you feel any sort of conflict internally with making money or feel the need to be perfect in everything you do, you will experience cognitive dissonance as you trade. This means that your brain will be insisting that you cannot exit a trade at a loss because it ruins your self-image of perfection. Or if you grew up and feel guilty about having money, your mind and ego will find a way to give up gains and take losses in the markets. The ego?s need to protect its version of the self must be let go in order to rid ourselves of the potential for self-sabotage.

If you have a perfectionist mentality when trading, you are really setting yourself up for failure, because it is a given that you will experience losses along the way in trading. Again, you have to think of trading as a probability game. You can't be a perfectionist and expect to be a great trader. If you cannot take a loss when it is small because of the need to be perfect, then the loss will often times grow to a much larger loss, causing further pain for the perfectionist. The objective should be excellence in trading, not perfection.

In addition, you should strive for excellence over a sustained period, as opposed to judging that each trade must be excellent. The great traders make mistakes too, but they are able to keep the impact of those mistakes small, while really riding their best ideas fully.

For the trader who is dealing with excessive ego challenges (yet, who wants to admit it?), this is one of the strongest arguments for mechanical systems, as you grade yourself not on whether your trade analysis was right or wrong. Instead you judge yourself based on how effectively you executed your system?s entry and exit signals. This is much easier for those traders who want to leave their egos at the door when they start to trade. Additionally, because we are raised in a highly competitive culture, the perception of a contest or competition will also bring out your ego's desire to win and beat others.

You will be better off seeing trading as a series of opportunities that will become apparent to you, and your task is to create a plan that finds opportunities with potential rewards that are several times greater than the risks you incur.

Be sure you are writing down your reasons for entering each trade, as the ego will play tricks and come up with new reasons to hang on to losing positions once the original reasons have evaporated. One of our survival mechanisms is remembering the good and omitting the bad in our minds, but this is dangerous in trading. You must acknowledge the risk and use a stop on every trade to admit when the analysis is no longer timely. This helps prevent undesirable situations where you get stuck in a position because you did not adhere to your original stop. This is a bad use of capital being tied up in an under-performing position, when there are likely to be many better opportunities elsewhere. Trading without stops is an ego-driven approach that hopes to avoid accountability for a losing trading idea. This is an unacceptable behavior to the successful trader, who knows he must limit risk with stops to stay in the game for the next trading opportunity.

In summary, your trading plan must account for the emotions you will be prone to experience, particularly those related to managing fear. As a trade, you must move from a fearful mindset to mental state of confidence. You have to believe in your ability as well as the effectiveness of your plan to take profits that are larger than the manageable losses. This builds the confidence of knowing that you are on the right track. It also makes it easier to continue to execute new trades after a string of losing positions. Psychologically, that's the critical point where many individuals will pull the plug, because they are too reactive to emotions as opposed to the longer-term mechanics of their plan. If you?re not sure if you can make this leap, know that you can if you start small.

Too many investors have an "all-or-none" mentality. They're either going to get rich quick or blow out trying. You want to take the opposite mentality - one that signals that you are in this for the longer haul. This gives you "permission" to slowly get comfortable and to keep refining your plan as you go. As you focus on execution while managing fear, you realize that giving up is the only way you can truly lose. You will win as you conquer the four major fears, to gain confidence in your trading method and, ultimately, you will gain even more confidence in yourself.
 
weekend prep smh

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18706

a=yesterday and todays days cent chart
b=todays linevolume chart
 

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appropriate fixed size

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Quote from scriabinop23:

Just thought I'd make a contribution from a recently learned lesson.

If you're impatient, it may mean you are trading too large a position. If an unreasonable fear of loss is driving your impatience to hold, then it may be wise to reduce your position size to the point where you can *afford* to be patient.

For example, I can easily afford to trade mini future contracts, but I am not comfortable with holding these positions for long due to the amount of possible downside from the smallest price movements. I think this comes from my sense of what a dollar is worth.

Same holds true when trading stocks in 1000-4000 share lots. I can afford to, but I get nervous and tend to pull the plug at the most inopportune times. 100-300 share lots are more appropriate for me, at least for now. I feel I can afford to let things blossom in smaller positions and exert a little less impulsivity.
 
Dominance And Frustration

my very loose transcript of a Tom W's interview
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Any comments on the following?

Wyckoff principles are not easily explained by Wyckoff.

Markets are manipulated often.

The average person knows little about volume. The average person only think of maybe averaging volume, looks maybe at divergence, maybe look at buyers volume and sellers volume. But these really does not mean anything. All these things the average person knows has many flaws in them.

According to Tom (who trades according to things he discovered about Wyckoff):
Wyckoff principle boils down to three things:
1) All volume is, is the amount of professional activity that is taking place. You don’t any fancy indicators to see this when looking at volume. You can easily see if professional money has been active or not active on a particular bar.
2) Volume is closely link to market movement. What did market do on this particular volume movement?
a) did prices shoot up and close on a low
b) did prices shoot up and close on a high
c) did it gap up, closing at middle or low
d) did it fall on the volume
e) etc.
This will give a clear indication of the supply and demand present at this point in time.
Volume is simple to analyze. Volume is the amount of professional interest in the market at that time.
3) Supply and demand. For every buyer there has to be a seller, for every seller there has to be a buyer. If we think deeper: If there are more buyers than sellers, the market is going to go up. If there are more sellers than buyers, the market is going to go down. Even then we have to dig deeper: The market shoots off in the opposite direction that you think it is going to go. The reasons for this is: To stop a falling market, any falling market, demand has got to be seen to have overcome supply that caused the falling market in the first place.
In other words: High volume, market closed to the middle or high, with narrow spreads, something has capped the bottom end of the market, showing professional money has stepped into the market, and has overcome the supply, at the end of the day there are more buyers than sellers. If there are more buyers than sellers, the market is going to go up.

People are usually mislead because the market is plummeting down and the news is bad. People are then fearful and dump there shares. But this is exactly when the market will turn producing a Hammer signal with high volume.

The same thing will happen at the top of a market: What will stop a bull market rally, is that supply has to be seen to have overcome demand that caused the up move in the first place. That will mean very high volume on that bar, spreads will probably narrow and markets will close in the middle or low, you will immediately know especially if it is in new high ground, the professional traders have stepped into the market, dumped massive amounts of stock all to the ever eager buyers.
 
Intermarket 20 & 21 july 2006

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thanks for putting me right, soc

on a closer look that first gap you mention is actually wider coming from the close of 1859 to the next open at 1941. the previous bar,too, was a hidden gap - the smaller blue up candle closed at 1860 and the next opened at 1894 and then collapsed back to 1860.

good trading

jon



Barjon...not quite...I will restrict the following explanation to only mechanical descriptions, expressed through gapping sequences exclusively:~

Let's see....

The first gap.that is the gap between 18.9 and 19,2 is a spoof gap.

This is because the price is suddenly marked up to 19.4 (with a tail on top) and immediately collapses.

There is no intention to take the prices higher.

The second gap, ( which is the one you have marked with the larger white circle ) is a harmonic gap.

It is harmonic with the first gap thus creating an island.

All the bars in the island have toptails. This indicates reluctance to mark up. (Pluto).

Then...thereafter the price goes sideways, with lots of bottom talis, so the gap that caused this is not a breakaway gap downwards at all, because of the reluctance of the price to motor downwards.

Then the third gap, ( smaller white circle) is a stunt. It is a ploy to trap the unwary into higher prices, hence the doji as you call it. This mark up cannot be sustained, leading to the decline that follows.

The next gap in the decline which occurs much later and occurs between 17.5 and 17.4 is a breakaway....but a breakaway followed by a controlled fall. This controlled fall culminates in a tweezer bottom (or very nearly a tweezer bottom ) at near the 16.6 level. (Uranus).

Now the mischief really starts.

Prices are laboriously marked up to around 17.7..and then gapped up...is this breakaway ? NO !

The price level of 18 is flirted with and then the price collapses through another harmonic gap and back to the 17 level or thereabouts...

And now it is made to flutter up and down and sideways, but futurologically speaking, from now on, the portents for even lower prices are in play, hence p r o d (anagram) ...solution...DROP.

Kind Regards as Usual.


Thanks to everyone who had a go. I hope contributors (especially Charlton who tabbed the down move and the bounce level) will excuse me for concentrating on another master class from mr.marcus.

Nope, there’s no spy-bots or trojans been in my computer, I’ve been scrupulous in not giving any hints as to what the instrument was , nor have I done anymore than pass the time of day with mr.marcus - so he must be a wizard then .

I’m quite sure that the greater the experience of the readers of this thread then the greater will be their admiration of Mark’s peer into the future - getting on for four months worth, I must remind you, with still more yet to unfold. Once again, I hope everyone appreciates the pure gold in Mark’s analysis. If all that’s not a tour de force then I don’t know what is.

I think it’s worth going through Mark’s narration against what did unfold. The price hung about for two days (maybe a little less than Mark anticipated) before falling to Mark’s blue line support where it held for six days - onward to Mark’s key number support (yes £18) where it bounced a bit higher than anticipated - then the dump down leg with only very brief support at Mark’s first red line level until it screamed to a halt virtually smack on Mark’s second red line support - the bounce here was stronger than Mark anticipated but, albeit in a more complicated fashion, the price went on to make Mark’s anticipated double bottom. Amazing .

So I’m left with little to say. I did this one because of the gap (first white circle) and musing whether this could be a breakaway gap, particularly when it was tested by the cut off point doji bar (itself created by an up gap - second white circle) and a prelude to a significant down move within the longer term range. With the failure to break the first gap a short entered just below the low of the doji bar seems reasonable with a stop just above the same doji bar high and an initial target at the light blue line.

As Split so rightly says, I hope these wot happened examples do point up situations where a low risk trade can be placed with the opportunity to run away quickly if things don’t pan out.

good trading

jon
 

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Thank you all so much for your contributions .

The elementary TA would tell you that the price would go higher and higher . How ever the next five bar is a drop of 70 C before a recovery . The 5 crucial bars that could reck any trader's confidence in his entry .

WHat went wrong then ? well , , I deliberately did not mentioned the market direction and to see if I am questioned over it .. ( no one mentioned any thing about the market direction and what phase market was.. ( exhausted or not )

In my earlier posts i did mention that the best way in stock trading is a TOP DOWN APPROACH . In another word you start with market analysis and then move to the stock which no one did . This is one of the areas that a trader should strengthen himself. If he does not know where market is heading he MUST NOT even considering to do any kind of analysis on the stock . Why do you think the fundamentalists fail to perform ? is that because they cannot not asses what stock is cheap or not ? NO simply because their analysis over the market direction lets them down .

The fact that SLB failed to perform higher and higher was simply because market took the stock down beyond stock's inherent strength .

Now lets go to exhaustion .

The most important concepts in TA are

1) EXHAUSTION
2) CONFIRMATION


Exhaustion

Exhaustion is the art of identifying when a certain trend has come to the end. in our SLB trade above , the market was technically exhausted which as a result corrected itself dragging SLB down with it .

The Exhaustion engine which i have mentioned few times will help traders to know

1) IF MARKET TREND IS EXHAUSTED
2) IF STOCK TREND IS EXHAUSTED

and if both 1) and 2) are not exhausted then IT IS SAFE TO GO LONG ( LONG IN SLB TRADE ) other wise WAIT for correction .( the engine will give you an excellent insight in how long you have to wait for correction before taking a postion )

I have out lined the exhaustion engine design which keeps traders out of BAD trade which in turn will help them to last longer in the market.

Grey1

...grey you said no one mentioned what phase the market was in....i told you that it was pros taking profits giving to weak hands at the highs.....i call this temporary exhaustion....and leading into a shake out fake out...which would lead to a downside correction....releasing weak longs......getting in some weak shorts...and allowing pros to but up again low......i even said the price level... even drew not only the next 5 bars but more like the next 30.....please correct my analysis ...specific parts....so what didn't i get.?...what didn't i make clear enough?...very interested to know mark j


Actually a very nice analysis urs was as you correctly pin pointed the 5 bars down as well as next phase up .

My point was generally speaking one has to know where he stands with the market before moving in to stocks . I can give you a similar situations that stock does not fall and performs a higher highs with tiny correction if any just because market still has momentum to move higher which as a result would carry the stock with it to much higher level .
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Grey1
 

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the ability to determine

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TheBramble said:
When and if Jon does amalgamate these WHN threads, this post I'm currently making will be a victim of the surgeon's scalpel, but for now, I think it's appropriate - or I wouldn't be taking the trouble to post it - obviously.

Jon's series of WHN has drawn some extraordinary responses. Both in terms of clear evidence of trading knowledge and expertise in some and strangely, given the obvious positive intent and superficial benefits of that intent, some very strong back-and-forth on issues quite unrelated to the primary 'exercise' from others. I have had a PM exchange with Jon on this aspect of his threads on how the most innocuous and obvious topic (a chart and wot next?) can develop some very strong discourse along a wider range outside the central theme. It was clearly a puzzle to us both. And then the answer came to me as I read this last tranche of posts this morning.

The reason this series of threads evoke such passion is that they cut right to the heart of what trading is really all about.

The ability to determine - not necessarily with a higher then 50/50 degree of probability what will most likely happen next - just the ability to determine. And I'm sure it flusters some that they haven't been able to 'do' it. But not those learning. They have no 'issue' if they find themselves unable to attempt it or to attempt it and 'fail'. They are just soaking up the posts that do provide empirical, definitive and explicit assessment of other traders' rationale and their thinking. Including those who elect to stay out of assessment for lack of specific additional information. Regardless of the correctness of those assessments that do hazard a reasonably explicated view, the thinking that has gone on behind the assessment is the real value here. Right or wrong. All those who assess or choose not to assess provide genuine insights - when provided along with their thinking. The quiet ones are the ones who are learning and staying quiet precisely so they can continue to learn the craft. And if you put yourself outside of that class in the last sentence you need to go back to school yourself. :LOL:

The ones that are really suffering are those that 'thought' they could trade or pretend they can and now, faced with the 'challenge' of proving it - if only to themselves in the privacy of their own bonce - fall short and feel bad. These are not characteristics of consistently successful traders and if you're feeling this way, you're either having a bad day or you need to address the underlying basis for feeling that way. There's no need to. Not caring is important.

Those that explain why it's going to tank and give you the technical basis for their view are right. Regardless of the eventual outcome. Those that consider it will head North along with the basis for their considerations are right. Regardless of the outcome. Those that feel there is a higher probability of short-term oscillation along with the reasons for their thinking are right. Regardless of the outcome. Those that elect not to make any assessment based on the lack of one or more pieces of information are right. Period. They'll never take an ill-considered trade. (There may be some of them in that last set that will never take any trade, but that's a separate issue).

It's precisely the basis for the difference in views that provides the market for us to trade. Been said before I know. They are all valid perspectives.

The rightness or wrongness of those who assess is not key. Over the long run with correct money management you can make a living with a 50/50 hit rate :LOL: The real value is in the thinking of the various bods that post - yes, ALL of them (yes, yes, even THAT one!).

Jon, you've either accidentally stumbled on a topic that's going to bring a lot of people to a higher level of trading (or perhaps a higher level of thinking?) or you're a deliberately self-disguised genius trying to nurture your flock to trading excellence.

And before anyone asks...

.... I wouldn't have been long from the big black line myself, but if I was advising anyone who had been long from that black line what to do:-

1. I'd ask them to explain what their exit strategy was when they went into the trade and if it was still in place. If they had ignored it or broken it - I'd tell them to stick to their trade strat at all times and exit now as a discipline. Regardless.

2. If their exit start was still unbreached I'd ask them if this particular trading strat had been producing overall profits. If it hadn't I'd suggest they ditch the strat and develop another strat. And exit now - as a kindness.

3. If their strat was a sound one and no stop had been breached or ignored I would suggest they stick with their trade.
 
Lines of Actual Control(Daily/30m)

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Cycle

When stocks are low in their cycle, shares move from weak hands to strong hands. Strong hands are accumulating shares; weak hands are still liquidating losing positions.

This suggests that the buy-sell cycle of strong hands (SH) leads that of weak-handed traders (WH), as shown in the chart below.


Cycle Low: After the market has declined, a new SH buying cycle begins while the news and fundamentals are still poor. WH selling continues.

Uptrend: Once WH begin to buy, the combined buying cycles of SH and WH create a new rising trend.

Cycle High: As the upward trend matures, SH begin to take profits while WH are still buying enthusiastically. The market's trend is strong and background fundamentals are positive. Late-cycle buyers are entering the market for the first time, and their eager buying offers SH plenty of takers for offered shares.

Downtrend: SH have unloaded the substantial portion of their shares, and the market begins to sag. WH become net sellers but find few buyers, and prices decline. SH sell their remaining shares or sell short, adding to the downward pressure. The combined selling cycles of both SH and WH produces a declining trend.

This analysis demonstrates two market types: 1) trending markets ; and 2) turbulent markets.

Trending markets occur when both SH and WH are in synch, when both groups are either net buyers or net sellers. Turbulent markets occur at cycle extremes when, as a result of offsetting cycles, SH and WH are at cross-purposes. The chart below shows both trending and turbulent markets.



Experienced traders know that the surest profits come during trending markets. Whether rising or falling, "the trend", as the old saw goes, "is your friend". Trading the trend is like paddling with the current.

Turbulent markets, on the other hand, are difficult even for wizened pros. These markets are like white water rapids. During these markets, the action of most individual stocks becomes choppy, while others trend upward and still others trend down. Navigating these waters successfully requires both skill and nerve, and capsizing is a real threat, especially for the novice trader.

There are four distinctive stages of the buy-sell cycle:



1.) Accumulation
shares move from weak hands to strong hands;

2.) Markup
price trends upward;

3.) Distribution
shares move from strong hands to weak hands;

4.) Liquidation (Markdown)
price trends downward.
 
First, it's clear that you've put a great deal of time and thought into this, which is good. And encouraging. However, you refer several times to this stuff "working". Support, resistance, and price are not a method or a system. The analysis of all this is an investigation of how markets work, i.e., how traders trade. Once you understand the dynamics of how buyers and sellers interact with each other, it is then up to you to determine how best to take advantage of those interactions. In other words, there will be no flashing red arrows which say "enter here".

Second, it's always easier to see thru the window after one cleans the glass, so I've reduced your first chart to the basics, i.e., price and volume (though even volume is not necessary, as you will see, and may even be a distraction). Since this takes some doing, I'd appreciate it if you'd convert your charts to what I have below: no channels, no S/R (support/resistance) lines, no trendlines, no colors other than black and white.

Now. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that life begins at the left edge and not get into the backstory here (otherwise, we could be here all day). Note that price hits 5655 and recoils from it. It then drops below it to 5647.5, then rallies back to 5655 where it is halted. Ah Ha! Resistance? Probed once from the topside (twice if you count the drop through) and now from the bottom side. This should cause a Hmmm on your part, something to pay closer attention to. Price then waffles around (and when I say Price I mean buyers and sellers) for a few bars, probes 5655 again, then falls. However, when it drops below the last swing low (LSL) at 5647.5, it rallies back in the same bar to close well off its low (if you were to look at a tick chart of this, you would see the wave of the dynamics of the exchange between buying pressure and selling pressure rather than a "bar", which would enable you to understand candlestick voodoo much easier and avoid assigning quite so much "meaning" to candlesticks and candlestick patterns). It's the closing well off the low that matters, not the color of the bar since buying pressure had to exceed selling pressure in order for this to occur. The volume bar tells you how much trading activity accompanied this movement. But what matters is the movement of price since that's where you make or lose your money.

But this particular test is not yet over. Sellers push price down again, and this time the trading activity increases. But what happens? Going back to what Wyckoff describes as effort and result, traders put more effort into this movement (more trading activity, i.e., higher volume) but the result is that price not only rebounds above the low of the previous bar (or the previous swing low if you're looking at a tick chart), but it also rebounds above the close of the previous bar, creating a potential shakeout (you mention my pdfs; the description of the shakeout is in Demand/Supply, so I won't go into that again here).

The proof, however, is as they say in the pudding. Look what happens to price now. It rallies all the way back to R (resistance) rather than plunge lower, suggesting that what looks like a shakeout really is a shakeout. It then breaks above R. Do you take this or not? And here's one example of where trader-specific strategies and tactics depart from "principles". There is no inherent good in taking or not taking this BO (breakout). You can determine in part whether or not to take it by developing and testing a trading system (or method or strategy or whatever you want to call it) which incorporates trading BOs. If that system as you've designed it is consistently profitable, then by all means take the BO. If it isn't, don't.

But whether you take the BO or not, traders again waffle around here, and while the waffling can be frustrating and even prompt you to exit, the waffling does confirm the importance of this level or zone (if it weren't important, price would breeze right through it). There is yet another quick downdraft, and this time on heavy volume, i.e., substantially increased trading activity, the highest so far. Lots of effort here. And what is the result? Again, price closes well off the lows, i.e., both buying pressure and selling pressure increase (more trading activity), but buying pressure wins the day. What matters, in other words, is not so much how far price travelled downward, but where it ended up. This tells you who -- for the moment at least -- is in the driver's seat. And if you have not yet bought the BO, you'd have a bit more confidence in doing so now.

If you don't, you can wait for the retracement (RET), which is where I've placed the second red dot. RETs disturb many novice traders because they think they screwed up. They want to reach their target as quickly as possible. If they don't, they think they're in trouble. So they cut their profits short. But rather than descend into flop sweat fear, focus on what a RET represents to those who didn't buy the BO. This is their second chance. And if they take it, you may be in for a nice, profitable ride (if they don't, you perhaps have -- and reasonably so -- a stop at BE by now and aren't especially concerned about it one way or the other). If you're one of the people who waited, you can enter now. However, this is next best to taking the BO since your risk is higher. You entered "late", placing you in the ranks of "weak hands" (i.e., the first to bail when the going gets rough because they have no cushion or buffer). If you wait even longer for further confirmation and buy (the third dot) when price BOs past the last swing high (LSH), your risk is higher still, and you'd be in the red almost immediately, though ultimately, if you insisted on hanging in no matter what the risk, you might make a few bucks, or at least BE.

By now, you have a higher high (HrH) and a higher low (HrL). The third dot represents the next HrH. Therefore, until you fail to make a HrH, you are in an uptrend. Shorts are not an option. In fact, depending on your particular strategy, shorts may not be an option even if you have a LrH if the LSL is still intact (more on this later). Price continues its ascent, finally retracing its progress to find S (support) at the previous swing high at 5667.5 or thereabouts. Entering here would be ultra-conservative given all the confirmation but it would also be near-suicidal. The weakest hands would enter even higher still, at the new high, which is where panic sell-offs are conceived. It then rallies yet again, making what is in hindsight "the high".

But what now? You're trading in real time. Hindsight is a luxury you don't have (and note that I've said nothing about volume so far exc with regard to the shakeout because it's not esp relevant or even helpful). What does price do? It retraces. But how far does it retrace? Does it drop below the LSH at 5677.5? Hmmm. Seems a bit weak, doesn't it? But you're up almost 40pts, so a little rest is in order, not unusual. Perhaps price will consolidate here for a while and buyers will prep themselves for a push to a further advance.

And, apparently, they do. But when price reaches the previous high, it runs into trouble (if you're waiting until now to go long, I can't help you ). It appears to form a double top (or a LrH if you're using candles and pay more attention to the bodies than to the wicks). Here again volume can be helpful to you since the trading activity here is FAR less than it is on the previous high, suggesting a lot less buying interest (not so much because of the amount of trading activity per se but because price isn't rising). Thus, if you were to SAR here (stop and reverse), you'd lock in the profits on your long and be at near the best possible position for your short (near best because your stop could be so near). This last, however, gets into strategy and tactics and is best left to your journal, if you choose to pursue this.

If shorting there is too aggressive for you, you can wait until your trendline is broken (not drawn in here, but I hope it's obvious) and the reversal confirmed, i.e., a drop below the LSL, which is where I've drawn the lateral red line at about 5671. Note that it is on the way down to this line that the trading activity increases. The importance of this line is confirmed by the extreme dryup of trading activity just before price breaks thru this line and the teeny-tiny bars that are the result of that activity. Then donk!, at which point you might want to enter your short, even though the stop must be much farther away and your risk much higher.

Again, you can wait for the RET, though this one repenetrates -- temporarily -- the S/R line (the last red dot). This is safer and represents somewhat less risk, not so much because of the price entered but because of the confirmation of weakness and because of the possibility of a tighter stop. But there clearly is weakness here along with a confirmed reversal. There is no long here, only shorts. (If somehow buyers manage to pull it together and reverse the reversal and make yet another attempt at a higher high, you at least are out with a profit on your long and perhaps a tiny loss on your short. And it happens. But that's the difference between trading in hindsight and trading in real time.)

Then, of course, WHAM! The weak hands cry Uncle and you've plunged 25pts.

As for predicting, don't even bother. Even if the attempt weren't so difficult for the novice (and often the not-so-novice) and didn't take so much time, it wouldn't matter. If and when you thoroughly understand what's happening in front of you, you'll know what to do, or at least what is likely to be the most appropriate course of action. If you allow yourself to sink into the muck of the minutiae of what each itty-bitty bar "means" and how it "relates" to every other itty-bitty bar, the trade will be long gone before you ever decide what it is you should do. Focus instead on the setup, on the conditions for the trade. This is where principles will guide you. But you must then decide exactly what it is that you're going to do if and when the conditions are right. Predicting what will or won't or might or might not or should or shouldn't happen after the trade is entered is wasted brain time. Knowing what you will do if and when certain events happen is part of your tactics and has been planned out long before.

But this is long enough now. If you have no questions, do you want to take a shot at your next chart? Or do you want me to do it? Either way, I'd appreciate your reposting it as I requested: no lines, no colors other than black and white, preferably no candles.

Db
 

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My method's cornerstones:

a-Disciplined risk, money, loss, energy and time management
b-Preparation context analyses for key-levels+calendar+premarket action
c-Live inter-market correlation direction/momentum for setups and initial stops
d-Precise metrics of the path of vertical movement for tigger, and trail stops
e-Where dominant/dominated will show power/frustration/fatigue for entry/trade managment
 
hurdle 4 and 5? and pride versus honesty

The problem emanates from the inability of the tutee to do several things.....the first is to embrace all of it....and not pick out just the comfortable bits and the nice bits and the easy bits....but to embrace all of it....and to committ it to memory in such a way that it is at his fingertips when the knowledge needs to be regurgitated immediately....but for starters.....people are not willing to do this because at an academic level already it is hard work for them....but they pretend....which is a form of cheating....because all the while this process is going on...they are seeking a shortcut...that does not exist....and then the tuteee comes up to the first hurdle....

The first hurdle is that even if academically how everything fits and where and under what circumstances is absorbed .....the first cracks in the inabilities that the tutee carries....posssibly unconsciously and possibly not...begin to show...to make themselves manifest.....that the tutee even at this early stage is unwilling or unable to rectify....we are not talking of character yet...we are talking of basic abilities....mental arithmetic...visualisation....imagination...cognition.....and so on...

Then the second hurdle appears .....in all of this process there are 5 in total....so it is a hell of an odessey.....and this hurdle tests the tutee's character....the central core of himself.....and his ability to confront.....and deal with his inabilities to modify them....now already we are in a mire.....because even with these basic requirements the tutee is reluctant to believe it is necesssary....so there is a resistance to master and overcome inabilities...

Then the third hurdle appears......here the tutee comes face to face not with the market and what the market is able to deliver...but with himself as a person...."in it".....and not "at it" any more....and this is the determining hurdle as to whether the fourth and fifth can be overcome.....and this hurdle....which prevents the tutee to assume full self governance of the highest order.....to act properly as the market demands from all of us....is what decides whether success in the offing is a possibility for him or not....It is not the tutor or mentor who decides this....but the tutee himself.....as what the tutee "thinks" ....is outside the aegis of anyone else but himself...and therefore not controlllable.....the tutor is not able to think for his tutee any more.....and even if he wanted to could not do it...

Now you see.....after all the mechanical aspect is explained....the rest is abstract.....and success rests upon the character of the individual.....and what mental faculties he brings to bear upon the task in hand....and mental work is invisible....because of this invisibility.....which cannot be adequately illustrated like you would explain the working parts of a carburettor in a car for example....because of this invisibility....which has a quality....but an intangible one....it can be recognised.....as to who has it and who has not.

It is that simple.....and yet it isn't....and for many decent ordinary harworking people it is impossible....which is the tragedy .
__________________
SOCRATES
 
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Stage 5 and 6

Stage Five: The Inwardly-Bound Stage

The trader who is able to pry himself out of Stage Four uses his experiences there productively. The trader learns, as stated earlier, what styles, techniques, tactics are popular. But instead of focusing entirely on what's "out there", he begins to ask himself some questions:

What exactly does he want? What is he trying to accomplish?

What sort of trading makes the most sense to him? Long or intermediate-term trading? Short-term trading? Day-trading? Trend-trading? Scalping? Which is most comfortable?

What instrument -- futures, stocks, ETFs, bonds, options -- provides the range and volatility he requires but is not outside his risk tolerance? Did he learn anything at all about indicators in Stage Four that he might be able to use?

And so he "auditions" all of this in order to determine what suits him, taking all that he has learned so far and experimenting with it.
He begins to incorporate the "scientific method" into his efforts in order to develop a trading plan, including risk management and trade management. He learns the value of curiosity, of detached interest, of persistence and perseverance, of taking bits and pieces from here and there in order to fashion a trading plan and strategy that are uniquely his, one in which he has complete confidence because he has tested it thoroughly and knows from his own experience that it is consistently profitable.

He accepts fully the responsibility for his trades, including the losses, which is to say that he understands that losses are inevitable and unavoidable. Rather than be thrown by them, he accepts them for what they are, a part of the natural course of business. He examines them, of course, in order to determine whether or not some error was made, particularly one that can be corrected, though true trading errors are rare. But, if not, he simply shrugs off the loss and goes on about his business. He understands, after all, that he is in control of his risk in the market.

He doesn't rant about his broker or the specialist or the market maker or that vast conspiracy of everyone who's trying to cheat him out of his money. He doesn't attempt revenge against the market. He doesn't fret. He doesn't fume. He doesn't succumb to hope, fear, greed. Impulsive, emotional trades are gone. Instead, he just trades.

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Stage Six: Mastery (also from Vad Graifer)

At this level, the trader achieves an almost Zen-like trading state. Planning, analysis, research are the focus of his time and his effort. When the trading day opens, he's ready for it. He's calm, he's relaxed, he's centered.

Trading becomes effortless. He is thoroughly familiar with his plan. He knows exactly what he will do in any given situation, even if the doing means exiting immediately upon a completely unexpected development. He understands the inevitability of loss and accepts it as a natural part of the business of trading. No one can hurt him because he's protected by his rules and his discipline.

He is sensitive to and in tune with the ebb and flow of market behavior and the natural actions and reactions to it that his research has taught him will optimize his edge*. He is "available". He doesn't have to know what the market will do next because he knows how he will react to anything the market does and is confident in his ability to react correctly.

He understands and practices "active inaction", knowing exactly what it is he wants, exactly what it is he's looking for, and waiting, patiently, for exactly the right opportunity. If and when that opportunity presents itself, he acts decisively and without hesitation, then waits, patiently, again, for the next opportunity.

He does not convince himself that he is right. He watches price movement and draws his conclusions. When market behavior changes, so do his tactics. He acknowledges that market movement is the ultimate truth. He doesn't try to outsmart or outguess it.

He is, in a sense, outside himself, acting as his own coach, asking himself questions and explaining to himself without rationalization what he's waiting for, what he's doing, reminding himself of this or that, keeping himself centered and focused, taking distractions in stride. He doesn't get overexcited about winning trades; he doesn't get depressed about losing trades. He accepts that price does what it does and the market is what it is. His performance has nothing to do with his self-worth.

It is during this stage that the "intuitive" sense begins to manifest itself. As infrequent as it may be, he learns to experiment with it and to build trust in it.
And at the end of the day, he reviews his work, makes whatever adjustments are necessary, if any, and begins his preparation for the following day, satisfied with himself for having traded well.

*the knowledge proved through research that a particular price pattern or market behavior offers an acceptable level of predictability and risk to reward to provide a consistenly profitable outcome over time.
 
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TheBramble said:
The problem with any staged scenario is that it leads some to think these 'stages' are real - and must be followed - in strict sequence. And that they have some reality. And that there's nothing else and nothing in between and nothing outside these 'stages'.

They are just the creations of someone else's mind. One other person. Not you. And the extent to which those who feel they must adhere to these artificial concepts make the attempt is directly inversely exponentially proportional to the the degree to which they delay their own personal trajectory through their very specific, very personal, very unique trading development.

Most people like structure. No, most people actually Crave structure, and discipline. And there are those who love to set it for them and have them jump through the hoops of their own design for their own purposes. Supply and Demand. Always. :LOL:

There are no set stages. In trading. Or in anything else at all, at all. Wake up.

No disrespect to Bo. He's got a job to do. But like any vendor, it isn't for your benefit. it's for his.
 
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