my S&P500 prediction for this week

[Vikos]

Guessing the closing price is Roulette!

 

[malaguti]

Guessing the closing price is Roulette!

and stating that there is a 50% chance of it going up or down is what...science?

 

[Atilla]

Guessing the closing price is Roulette!

I'll be honest with you Vikos - I would be dying to know how well you stack up against our forecasters or come to that our Weighted Average system in 'guestimating' the direction of the S&P move????

Especially so - in light of your vendor badge. Perhaps you would like to try out the competition and test your methodology... :smart:

It's not like we are going to charge you for it. :whistling


You would be more than welcome to join.

 

[wackypete2]

I'll be honest with you Vikos - I would be dying to know how well you stack up against our forecasters or come to that our Weighted Average system in 'guestimating' the direction of the S&P move????

Especially so - in light of your vendor badge. Perhaps you would like to try out the competition and test your methodology... :smart:

It's not like we are going to charge you for it. :whistling


You would be more than welcome to join.

Maybe you could add a weighted average vendor forecast to the spreadsheet :smart:

Peter

 

[Vikos]

Probability of 65% that the index S&P500 will go up next week.

 

[OddTrader]

Probability of 65% that the index S&P500 will go up next week.

Thanks for this intersting thread.

Seems probability % is not found on your C2 system. What's the Win % for your SPY trades with C2 ?

Is it logical to bet more money for higher % probability? If no, Why? If yes, How? TIA.

 

[OddTrader]

Hi Vikos,

We have an informal predict the weekly closing price of S&P500 index competition on this blog http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/182110-s-p-500-cash-weekly-competition-2014-a.html

You seem to be attempting pretty much the same thing and it would be good to have your forecasts too.

If you would like to join it would be good to have you participate.

Either way wishing you prosperous trading.

I am just wondering if the competition scheme can be further improved to incorporate something more close to real trading, such as weekly loss or gain, according to the implied directions of each weekly guess/trade.

Or perhaps a separate competition. TIA.

 

[Atilla]

I am just wondering if the competition scheme can be further improved to incorporate something more close to real trading, such as weekly loss or gain, according to the implied directions of each weekly guess/trade.

Or perhaps a separate competition. TIA.

There is no reason why it can not. However, there is a trade off between simplicity and managing the complexity. Different formats have been tried but this seems to be the most simple one that has lasted the test of time. Can you be more specific as to what you have in mind? Are we talking one weekly forecast with SL and Limits or something else.

You can also start one laying out the rules and see how it catches on. I'd be happy to join in.

 

[OddTrader]

There is no reason why it can not. However, there is a trade off between simplicity and managing the complexity. Different formats have been tried but this seems to be the most simple one that has lasted the test of time. Can you be more specific as to what you have in mind? Are we talking one weekly forecast with SL and Limits or something else.

You can also start one laying out the rules and see how it catches on. I'd be happy to join in.

Thanks for your feedback.

Perhaps your spreadsheets could handle a bit more calculations.

One thing is I personally would like to see the expectancy of individual traders/systems in the competition, if possible.

Just 2 cents. Don't worry about it too much. I think you have done a great work so far. Much appreciated!

"
Expectancy = (AW * PW + AL * PL ) / | AL |
Where:
AW = Average winning trade in dollars
PW = Probability of winning trades
| AL | = Absolute value of the average losing trade in dollars
PL= Probability of losing trades
"

 

[Atilla]

Thanks for your feedback.

Perhaps your spreadsheets could handle a bit more calculations.

One thing is I personally would like to see the expectancy of individual traders/systems in the competition, if possible.

Just 2 cents. Don't worry about it too much. I think you have done a great work so far. Much appreciated!

"
Expectancy = (AW * PW + AL * PL ) / | AL |
Where:
AW = Average winning trade in dollars
PW = Probability of winning trades
| AL | = Absolute value of the average losing trade in dollars
PL= Probability of losing trades
"

I did try this idea out once with the pips made by the averages but due to the nature of the competition it doesn't lend it self well for this purpose and adds time in maintaining sheet.

Basically, one hopes all traders keep a journal and everyday review days trading with eod p/l calculations looking at losers and winners and those carried to next day.

Competition is basically predicting direction / trend and proximity to end of week. Otherwise best way forward is to have an open online application to manage it imo - rather than a spread-sheet. For one trader it may be workable but for many traders it becomes time consuming and unmanagable, for me at least anyhow.

Now would be a good time to join our competition if you are interested and it would be good to have some more forecasters.

Best regards,

 

[OddTrader]

I did try this idea out once with the pips made by the averages but due to the nature of the competition it doesn't lend it self well for this purpose and adds time in maintaining sheet.

Basically, one hopes all traders keep a journal and everyday review days trading with eod p/l calculations looking at losers and winners and those carried to next day.

Competition is basically predicting direction / trend and proximity to end of week. Otherwise best way forward is to have an open online application to manage it imo - rather than a spread-sheet. For one trader it may be workable but for many traders it becomes time consuming and unmanagable, for me at least anyhow.

Now would be a good time to join our competition if you are interested and it would be good to have some more forecasters.

Best regards,

Thanks again for your feedback. Interested mainly in learning predictions of ES from you guys.

 

[Pat494]

The answer is in the wind matey

 

[OddTrader]

Thanks again for your feedback. Interested mainly in learning predictions of ES from you guys.

BTW, an alternative to derive expectancy is for forecasters to convert/classify/provide "Strong Up, "Up", "Down" and "Strong Down" predictions, rather than numbers. Strong means 2 points, and is perhaps defined according to last year's statistics.

Guessing right will get 1 point for "UP or Down" or 2 points for "Strong", depending on her/his projection weekly. Guessing wrong will loss 1 or 2 points, depending on where the ES ends each week. :idea:

 

[Atilla]

BTW, an alternative to derive expectancy is for forecasters to convert/classify/provide "Strong Up, "Up", "Down" and "Strong Down" predictions, rather than numbers. Strong means 2 points, and is perhaps defined according to last year's statistics.

Guessing right will get 1 point for "UP or Down" or 2 points for "Strong", depending on her/his projection weekly. Guessing wrong will loss 1 or 2 points, depending on where the ES ends each week. :idea:

Hi OddTrader,

Happy to consider these suggestions but it would be best if they were made in the comp thread http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/196648-s-p-500-cash-weekly-competition-2015-prizes.html

Basically, this is a competition run and managed by the members so would need to get buy in from the others along with Pat & I.

We can discuss and if acceptable make any changes at the start of Quarter-2 in April.

I do think you should enter a forecast if I may say so, as you have genuine interest. You may win $50 Amazon voucher at the end of every quarter if you get most points points.

 

[OddTrader]

Hi OddTrader,

Happy to consider these suggestions but it would be best if they were made in the comp thread http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/196648-s-p-500-cash-weekly-competition-2015-prizes.html

Basically, this is a competition run and managed by the members so would need to get buy in from the others along with Pat & I.

We can discuss and if acceptable make any changes at the start of Quarter-2 in April.

I do think you should enter a forecast if I may say so, as you have genuine interest. You may win $50 Amazon voucher at the end of every quarter if you get most points points.

Will try.

For popularisation purpose, Guessing a number could stop many potential traders to join your game!

 

[Pat494]

Will try.

For popularisation purpose, Guessing a number could stop many potential traders to join your game!

I seem to remember that the rules were set out on a podium basis of the nearest 3 to stop having dead heats too often on a simple up/down basis.

 

[Atilla]

Will try.

For popularisation purpose, Guessing a number could stop many potential traders to join your game!

I do not think guessing a number is a fair representation of the competition. :-0

I use TA to forecast and also look up the news up ahead of the week to see what's being announced and the vibes re: expected numbers.

I can't speak for our other forecasters but popularisation is the last objective of the thread. I mean prizes of $250 over a year is hardly a driver encouraging bloggers to take wild guesses.

On the contrary it's consistency with prizes split over 4 quarters.

Why don't you step up to the podium and forecast using your personal scientific approach and show us all up then

 

[OddTrader]

I do not think guessing a number is a fair representation of the competition. :-0

I use TA to forecast and also look up the news up ahead of the week to see what's being announced and the vibes re: expected numbers.

I can't speak for our other forecasters but popularisation is the last objective of the thread. I mean prizes of $250 over a year is hardly a driver encouraging bloggers to take wild guesses.

On the contrary it's consistency with prizes split over 4 quarters.

Why don't you step up to the podium and forecast using your personal scientific approach and show us all up then

I think you're too serious about the differences between/among projections, forecasts, estimations, predictions, computations, and guesses. imo, they are all doing the same thing about some numbers in the future. Can we know which one of them provides a better and more accurate Guess (sic)?

 

[Pat494]

I think you're too serious about the differences between/among projections, forecasts, estimations, predictions, and guesses. imo, they are all doing the same thing about some numbers in the future. Can we know which one of them provides a better and more accurate Guess (sic)?

Won't dare have a go now. Might be shown up

 

[Atilla]

Won't dare have a go now. Might be shown up

Oh go on... Oh go on then... oh go and have a guess...