Lord Anton Kreil

[joetroscoe]

Why not, is he afraid to lose ?

Actually he does show a trader everything except picking the asset for you.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

You lost me. I was not being defensive. I was simply stating that making a call on a trade shows nothing. It is one trade. Now if I gave you a years worth of calls you might have a large enough data set to infer something.

The Institute does not take broker kickbacks, and there is no such thing as an edge. Markets in stocks are no different than any other market.

Well, call outs served me well over the years in quickly making an assessment about someone's status in trading ability/knowledge. So no amount of convincing will change my mind.

A call out not only shows whether someone is capable of making a winner, it also shows if he knows what he's doing when the market quickly goes against him. A call out is not about winning, but about whether he knows what he's doing.

People who don't like call outs would have very low win rates. That is revealing information. So I know your rate is below 50% for instance, with reasonable confidence, before you stated to aspire for 50-55%. There's nothing wrong with 50% or below. But it tells me where you stand.

If your course tells you there is no edge, then how do you make a profit ? I know for a fact there is edge because I hold one in my hands. Part of my edge pays me 365 days a year. The staff here have ceased banning me for saying something so outrageous. There, even they believe it.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Actually he does show a trader everything except picking the asset for you.

To save himself getting the blame when it goes wrong. Again an indication of low probability of getting it right.

 

[foroom lluzers]

To save himself getting the blame when it goes wrong. Again an indication of low probability of getting it right.

It is called the hindsight calls club , where callers don't want to look dumb ,in front of their potential customers .Very common practice with those who can't , but those who are Gurus.

There are plenty of method educators on the net ,like Anton.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Actually he does show a trader everything except picking the asset for you.

The secret of successful trading is knowing my asset , I only trade 2 assets.Not knowing what you are dealing in , is the dumbest thing for a new trader to do.I deal in scrap metal , so I know about my product.

 

[joetroscoe]

The secret of successful trading is knowing my asset , I only trade 2 assets.Not knowing what you are dealing in , is the dumbest thing for a new trader to do.I deal in scrap metal , so I know about my product.

Here in the US, asset means any sort of stock, bond, option, etc. If you only trade in two assets you are limiting yourself and your money velocity will slow because of it. If you are trading only fx( which is likely) then that is only one asset class and that will hurt you even more. I agree that you should know your asset, which is why a top down approach is taught and then overlaid with appropriate risk management. The approach is global, so that gives a universe of 40,000 instruments from which to trade. Makes life a lot easier.

 

[joetroscoe]

Well, call outs served me well over the years in quickly making an assessment about someone's status in trading ability/knowledge. So no amount of convincing will change my mind.

A call out not only shows whether someone is capable of making a winner, it also shows if he knows what he's doing when the market quickly goes against him. A call out is not about winning, but about whether he knows what he's doing.

People who don't like call outs would have very low win rates. That is revealing information. So I know your rate is below 50% for instance, with reasonable confidence, before you stated to aspire for 50-55%. There's nothing wrong with 50% or below. But it tells me where you stand.

If your course tells you there is no edge, then how do you make a profit ? I know for a fact there is edge because I hold one in my hands. Part of my edge pays me 365 days a year. The staff here have ceased banning me for saying something so outrageous. There, even they believe it.

The word "edge" can be used in so many ways that it is difficult to know what a person means by that. If there were a true edge, markets would cease to exist because that would imply a perfect trade. Who would take the other side? So there are no perfect trades, and hence no edge. Like I said before, the course was completed in five days because I knew about half of the material. Now that I know that you are the type that does not change their mind regardless of new information, I understand better where you are coming from. Win rate is one of those stats that retail traders just love. Many martingale strategies have a win rate of around 90%, but guess what happens in the end? What you say is a call out is useless and just leads to endless forum bickering. Trading is not that hard. Seek risk when you are winning, and reduce risk when losing. Real traders are interested in percent return per position on the portfolio, and controlling risk.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

a universe of 40,000 instruments from which to trade. Makes life a lot easier.

Not really. Life becomes a lot harder. Small markets can be mispriced indefinitely. Larger markets are under greater participation and scrutiny, and more susceptible to arbitrage. Therefore misprice in a large market cannot continue for long.

It's a lot safer trading large markets. The risk in a small market is that they can sell you assets, and then depress the price indefinitely. You will then be locked in for life and your money wastes away doing nothing useful.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

the course was completed in five days because I knew about half of the material.

5 days to complete training for a pro trader. That says it all really. I am quite sure Anton spent a great deal more than that when he was a trainee.

Trading is not that hard.

Hard enough to prevent call outs.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

As far as trader skill goes I have to deduct 1 point from Anton for encouraging trainees to play with small markets.

The trader I worked with always sought out liquid markets. Not that it made a difference to him when he was outside of a bank. He lost the lot just the same. But he's definitely more experienced and skilled in comparison.

 

[joetroscoe]

To save himself getting the blame when it goes wrong. Again an indication of low probability of getting it right.

Actually, he does tell of some trades that he has done, but even so, the sample size is too small, and we are in a late stage bull market. Dart throwing will make you money.

 

[joetroscoe]

Not really. Life becomes a lot harder. Small markets can be mispriced indefinitely. Larger markets are under greater participation and scrutiny, and more susceptible to arbitrage. Therefore misprice in a large market cannot continue for long.

It's a lot safer trading large markets. The risk in a small market is that they can sell you assets, and then depress the price indefinitely. You will then be locked in for life and your money wastes away doing nothing useful.

I fail to understand where you drew that the Institute advocates small markets. In fact, most of your portfolio should be made up of large and mega caps for just the reasons you cited. That was one thing I changed. I was a CANSLIM guy before that.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

I fail to understand where you drew that the Institute advocates small markets. In fact, most of your portfolio should be made up of large and mega caps for just the reasons you cited. That was one thing I changed. I was a CANSLIM guy before that.

40k universe that you mentioned is full of midget markets but a handful.

 

[foroom lluzers]

Actually, he does tell of some trades that he has done, but even so, the sample size is too small, and we are in a late stage bull market. Dart throwing will make you money.

Hindsight results after the trade?

 

[joetroscoe]

5 days to complete training for a pro trader. That says it all really. I am quite sure Anton spent a great deal more than that when he was a trainee.




Hard enough to prevent call outs.

Just depends on prior level of knowledge Joe, and study time, which you did not ask. You appear to jump to conclusions with incomplete information. Obviously they want you to do it over a month. I did not need that because I was surprised at how much I already knew. What I did not know is which economic indicators lead the market. That alone was the price of admission for me. I was already a chartist before I took the course, so his TA presentation was cute. To know what institutions are looking at when placing positions was a real eye opener. I was like that other fellow who is talking about buying dips on a hindsight chart. I was making money with it, but my risk management was a bit of a gut feel. I can now quantify every decision I make, and for an engineer, that is everything to me.

 

[joetroscoe]

40k universe that you mentioned is full of midget markets but a handful.

There should be a portion of the portfolio for mid and small caps, but they are less liquid, and options are out the equation due to spreads, but it can ramp up your returns. Remember, the next MSFT and AAPL is a small cap stock today.

 

[joetroscoe]

Hindsight results after the trade?

Any position not made in real time is hindsight. That is why calls is a silly endeavor.

It goes like this:
1. Make a call.
2. It wins.
3. They say make another call.
4. It loses. You are a loser.
4a. It wins. They say it was hindsight.
4b. It wins. They say photoshop.
4c. It wins. They want you to teach them and be a signal service.
4d. It wins. They want brokers and platforms.

Personally, I would never make a call because I do not know if I am helping a terrorist, a pedophile, a serial killer, or just a general all around d*ck.

Most people are extremely lazy and seem to be okay with intellectual property theft. I have a real problem with that. So I will always be happy to talk trading theory with anyone, but most people deserve poverty, and I have no desire to stand in the way of that.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Remember, the next MSFT and AAPL is a small cap stock today.

Now we are grasping at straws. 2/40000 = 0.00005% probability. Would you like to play lotto instead. No training to do and costs you only one dollar.

Anyway, I have all the info I need. I wish you success in realising your dreams.

Personally I reckon it's a lot simpler with a call out than pro-audited accounts. Again, I have never requested a call out. So, it's not necessary.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Obviously they want you to do it over a month.

These people are jokers. Go ask Anton how many years he was a trainee for.

 

[edmond360]

These people are jokers. Go ask Anton how many years he was a trainee for.

The majority of that training is almost certainly useless box-ticking crap done solely because HR need to have all the necessary paperwork in place to show their investors that their money is in safe hands. If you distil all the fake lip service training out of the equation, having less than a month's worth of useful material left over is not out of the question.