Fx 2008

[Gumping]

what is going on with eur/usd?

Sharp drop over 100 points scratched my morning long. Is this an intervention?

Can they really stop price going to 1.6 in the longer term? Looks like it is finding support now but 4 hourly looks like it wants to go down some more....

I agree dude! Got completely wiped out myself - maximum stop-loss hit. It appears to have calmed down and be forming a base now, but am holding off on a revenge trade

I'm wondering about an intervention myself - but do the ECB have enough money to keep this going? Or are we just going to get a cheap entry in the ride up to 1.6000?

 

[rags2riches]

I agree dude! Got completely wiped out myself - maximum stop-loss hit. It appears to have calmed down and be forming a base now, but am holding off on a revenge trade

I'm wondering about an intervention myself - but do the ECB have enough money to keep this going? Or are we just going to get a cheap entry in the ride up to 1.6000?

I heard someone mention something about option expiry day today possibly causing the sharp sell off as well....

Best to see what happens on Monday morning. Have a good weekend!

 

[finmarx]

hi guys - i posted on another thread sking about CHF vs GBP outlook - i'm interested in seeking peoples opinions on where they think this will trade from the short term to 2 years from now.

any opinions? apologies having to post this on multiple threads - I seem to have muppets on the other thread who don't seem to have a scooby. would very much appreciate any feedback.

 

[hornblower]

hi guys - i posted on another thread sking about CHF vs GBP outlook - i'm interested in seeking peoples opinions on where they think this will trade from the short term to 2 years from now.

any opinions? apologies having to post this on multiple threads - I seem to have muppets on the other thread who don't seem to have a scooby. would very much appreciate any feedback.

As a trader I just trade what I see, over 2 or 3 days
I do not hold long term views

 

[ampro]

hi guys - i posted on another thread sking about CHF vs GBP outlook - i'm interested in seeking peoples opinions on where they think this will trade from the short term to 2 years from now.

I seem to have muppets on the other thread who don't seem to have a scooby.

Apparently, you're in the process of making a reasonably important (financial?) decision to scoot across to Switzerland.

Quite why you'd be in the slightest bit interested in the views of folks you've never met, let alone not having a clue as to their financial-trading credentials, is beyond me.

If the forward GBPCHF rate shift bias is that important to you, why not pick up the phone & ring the SNB?? after you've done that, blag a call to one of the head honcho's at the BOE & see what they got to say about the future performance bias.

Might save you a few columns of text. As for muppets, I'd take a good long peek in a mirror if I were you son.

 

[finmarx]

thanks for your assistance

I normally base all my life changing decisions by rolling a dice. I thought I'd try something a little different and make my decision based on advice given to me on an interweb forum.

hehe...point taken.

 

[trendie]

frustrating week.
have experienced more spikes than usual.

today was ok. nice downmove on EURJPY with tradeable pullbacks, (still in play).

But, GBPUSD has caught me out again today. nice downmove, then sudden reversal.
partly my fault, as I could have bailed out after a few congestion bars, but thats normally my cue to take the pullback. GBPUSD is now in an upmove.

A sub-par week for me, so thats two in a row.
If I only traded GBPUSD I would be sweating, but EURJPY has kept me sane.

hope you did better.
have a good weekend.

 

[DDI]

frustrating week.
have experienced more spikes than usual.

today was ok. nice downmove on EURJPY with tradeable pullbacks, (still in play).

But, GBPUSD has caught me out again today. nice downmove, then sudden reversal.
partly my fault, as I could have bailed out after a few congestion bars, but thats normally my cue to take the pullback. GBPUSD is now in an upmove.

A sub-par week for me, so thats two in a row.
If I only traded GBPUSD I would be sweating, but EURJPY has kept me sane.

hope you did better.
have a good weekend.

On the contrary I found EURJPY tough. Always stops me out.

I pulled out of my positions way too early this week easpecially on USD crosses. was long USDCHF from 10070, came out 10140, was short EURUSD159, came out 15830 (although again sold much smaller stake at 157 came out 15560 this morning). But who was to know. So many times I've seen profits slip that I just take them nowadays. I did well on EURGBP as I rode it both up and down. also made about 40pips on AUDGBP.

Also was short Gold from 915, came out 902!!

Despite a good week I have only recovered about 50% of the disasterous few weeks before that

 

[Gumping]

EUR/USD has creamed me this week :-0

Looked to get a breakout of 1.5600 and got stopped out. (Impatient) entry at 1.5756 got me stopped out again. Licking my wounds at the moment....
Volatility has gone crazymad!!

 

[hornblower]

made a few points on the gbp/usd this morning and thats been about it

looking forward to Monday

 

[Crap Buddist]

Make good use of this week.?

Well, I think its been a great week for putting those strats to the test, some nice direction plays and some mental zig zags (not too mental though) I mean if you use a indie strat it should cope with weeks like these ? Because it would show it adpats to varying market conditions, or fluid ones. so a good opportunity,even if you got spanked !

 

[trendie]

Heavens to Betsy! Spikes again.

Is it just me, or is GBPUSD now acting strangely?
This morning, 7:30am-ish, violent breakout from previous few hours range. Thats ok, as its the euro-zone waking up and doing their stuff. But, instead of the normal (?) pullback and continuation, GBPUSD decides to reverse sharply.

EURJPY performing ok, but range not so good, but its only Monday, and the morning.
may have to add EURUSD to my list of markets to smooth out the misbehaving GBPUSD.

anybody elses systems performing "differently"?
I suppose, wild reversals are not good for MA-based systems as the indicators go out of synch with the real price-action.

this could well be the third week that my system is sub-optimal.
not happy. is getting harder to make a profit I am finding.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Ok here at the mo, but i only have one point of focus. hmmm I do think though that these difficult weeks are an opportunity to examine for improvements.

Also i did think last friday that sterling is due to strengthen for a couple few eeeks maybe , have you seen the EURGBP come off a bit ? might run down to 77.

Dollars gaining so maybe usdjpy will breach 105-110/12 GBPJPY hmmm if that can bust 208.00 and we get a sustained break then could be a few decent gains there too. Thats star gazing longer term inter week . Also I hold to mind what time they wake up on the FX desks or something allow (factor in) T n Toast. Armies march better with a full stomach, something like that I think.

​

 

[Crap Buddist]

Thinking on, again back to last friday start gazing if the EURGBP is gonna weaken and we get dollar strength/ yen weakness then I anticipate GBPJPY packing on the points but GBP USD ? that should ,hmm I guess be limited in its run up due to dollar strength ? Crikey I dunno... Sounds plausable from a fundy technical point of view .....

so maybe gbpjpy 2 steps forward one back

gbpusd 2 steps forward 1.5/1.75 back Thats the extent of my Fundamental analysis. Thank God.

 

[trendie]

Think the thing you guys have to bear in mind when looking at cable right now is, for a change, the direction is NOT 99% dictated by the ebb and flow of the dollar. There are a lot of things going on in sterling right now at least as influential as what's going on over the pond.

Whereas for example if you trade USD/CHF, it's still more of a dollar story (and your analysis can therefore get away with being more simplistic (i.e. U.S. centric).

Plus, to be honest, short term supply/demand and market positioning are far more a factor right now than technical backdrop. So firstly I would expect all your mechanical, technical systems (not that I'm in any way a lover of these things at the best of times) to struggle, and secondly, I would be wary of too much 'optimisation' to fit the current climate as it may all be different tomorrow, and you risk just always lagging behind the current trading environment imho.

Just my $0.02

GJ

good to get a different perspective.

perhaps I need to zoom out and read/trade the markets from a larger time-frame or use wider stops, since the shorter ones are whipping me big-time at the moment.

 

[rols]

Tough to trade short term without decent short term tactical info. Imho charts are nowhere near enough in this kind of market, and the shorter the timeframe, the more this is the case.

Typical example would be fixing trades. If you are looking at a really short timeframe chart, a move down to what you percieve as support may look like a good chance to buy. But if the move down is as a result of fix related action, and you buy a couple of minutes before the fix, chances are better than evens that the market will just blow straight through your stop level, as no-one moving the market cares about short term charts.

Of course, if you know it's for the fix, you can buy 30 seconds AFTER it's all done and dusted, and you have a much better risk / reward ratio on your trade. And in this example I do mean MUCH better.

But of course you need to know that someone has an interest into the fix first. And in the case of the majority of posters here, you would need to know what the hell I'm even talking about first. So imho longer timefraes are the only way to really eradicate the disadvantages of not sitting somewhere like an investment bank imho. You're just flying blind trading short term.

GJ

I hate to disagree with you GJ but I'm still holding a short on EURUSD from this morning at 1.5683

I personally have found these recent markets a delight to trade - EURUSD currently has a daily range of 170 pips, more than enough action for a little minnow like me to nip in between the big fish.

Very simply, my current modus operandi is to draw up some key areas on a H4 chart then pinpoint entries on M5.

Horses for courses I suppose.

 

[trendie]

Tough to trade short term without decent short term tactical info. Imho charts are nowhere near enough in this kind of market, and the shorter the timeframe, the more this is the case.

Typical example would be fixing trades. If you are looking at a really short timeframe chart, a move down to what you percieve as support may look like a good chance to buy. But if the move down is as a result of fix related action, and you buy a couple of minutes before the fix, chances are better than evens that the market will just blow straight through your stop level, as no-one moving the market cares about short term charts.

Of course, if you know it's for the fix, you can buy 30 seconds AFTER it's all done and dusted, and you have a much better risk / reward ratio on your trade. And in this example I do mean MUCH better.

But of course you need to know that someone has an interest into the fix first. And in the case of the majority of posters here, you would need to know what the hell I'm even talking about first. So imho longer timefraes are the only way to really eradicate the disadvantages of not sitting somewhere like an investment bank imho. You're just flying blind trading short term.

GJ

GJ,

what the hell ARE you talking about?
whats a fix? (erm, in context of trading, of course)

 

[rols]

Ah, but I don't think that's at odds with what I'm saying mate. The fact is, plenty of sizeable black box model funds, CTAs, hedge funds etc look at H4 charts, so levels that look good to you on these (especially if they're simpler support / resistance etc) should be respected by market participants with dough to chuck behind them.

It's people trading entirely off levels on 5m charts that my comment was aimed at mate. Sounds little wrong with your plan to me. The 5m charts for you I guess are just a proxy for tape reading right? An easier way to digest info you could in theory just get by looking at the price action. I know all charting is really like that, but hopefully you get my drift.

GJ

p.s. glad the market seems to be treating you well.

I have noticed of late there seems to be a greater testing of S + R levels with more wiggle generally. Failure to look at the bigger picture including Fibs on D1 and W1 is too little preparation IMO. Fatal for the M5 MA cross traders. Any H4 chart will reveal many channels, wedges, flags, BO's - all potential trades contained therein. I suppose the art lies in translating this into a 'feel' for the M5 price action combined with much patience, discipline and a little luck.

Must say I have recently developed a fondness for the TS after PT1 has been attained.

regards

rols

 

[Crap Buddist]

The way I see it is you can anticipate the flow of a large volume of water by monitoring the strength of current moving through it, like an underwater jet stream ! So while I do use small T'F charts I'm looking at the jet streams effect to move the bigger mass.

Also like monitoring the mass of cells in say a human arm that is about to be raised. If one used a microscope (a very wide angled one!) you can see the cell mass moving the ONE arm.

Does it make a difference though ? yes i think it does as you can see the cell mass (as a collective force) begin its attempt to lift the arm before someone who was on the outside watching the one arm can.

Thats as sophisticated as my trading gets.

 

[rols]

p.s. EUR/GBP was one example today (13:15 UK time). Main fixes are Frankfurt (midday London), ECB (13:15 London) and WM (16:00 London). There are many others, but these are the most popular. Price action around NY Cut option expiries (15:00 London) also worth keeping an eye on.

Thanks for sharing - very useful info.

In my own minnow way I pay attention to price action around 00, 15, 30 and 45 minutes on the hour where I presume the robots trade. Quite predictable often.