FX-2007: Apr 02nd > Apr 6th

[29Investments]

From FXCM;

Prices came within a pip of the 1.9717 retracement
support o/n and within 2 pips a second time before rallying beyond the 1.9770
o/n highs. Lingering o/b daily concerns sapped our appetite for buying in the
1.9715-20 support patch. Nevertheless, there could be room for one more push
to complete Fibo extension at 1.9835. R v R no good here.

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

My concern is the dollar may take a hit overnight from Japanese sellers pre the US news release. Consequently lifting the GBP/USD. Only to be complicated further by the BoE.




TPF

 

[Atilla]

My concern is the dollar may take a hit overnight from Japanese sellers pre the US news release. Consequently lifting the GBP/USD. Only to be complicated further by the BoE.
TPF

Closed my Cable position at 1.9760 for 8 pips. Got nervous listening to news about $ falling and the price of Gold I just noticed at 672. People buying gold based on some bad news about the $.

Spooked me :-0 .

Pips in the bag better than out in the desert....

 

[Priceman]

From FXCM;

Prices came within a pip of the 1.9717 retracement
support o/n and within 2 pips a second time before rallying beyond the 1.9770
o/n highs. Lingering o/b daily concerns sapped our appetite for buying in the
1.9715-20 support patch. Nevertheless, there could be room for one more push
to complete Fibo extension at 1.9835. R v R no good here.

Is today's action just taking the shorts and longs out so that the big players can position ready for the outcome of the news... it's hit the same high and low twice within a couple of pips?

I just took 18pips today as I couldn't watch the screen, but as Atilla said it's all pips in the bag! See ya'll tomorrow all, unless things hot up later tonight then I could be tempted back in, I favour the long side but will go with the flow

 

[pipper]

Closed my Cable position at 1.9760 for 8 pips. Got nervous listening to news about $ falling and the price of Gold I just noticed at 672. People buying gold based on some bad news about the $.

Spooked me :-0 .

Pips in the bag better than out in the desert....

Good job, looks like you made the right move.

 

[rav700]

Hello All Traders..........of Trade2win....
I think we should all meet up..........What do you say....
I live in nottingham............I dont mind travelling but if you come to my town....
First round on me...what do you say???
Hopefully tommorow we should make a few decent pips to afford this hahahah

 

[Atilla]

Hello All Traders..........of Trade2win....
I think we should all meet up..........What do you say....
I live in nottingham............I dont mind travelling but if you come to my town....
First round on me...what do you say???
Hopefully tommorow we should make a few decent pips to afford this hahahah

Hi Rav,

London maybe but Nottingham seems to be a very thirsty trek.

Wouldn't be better to meet up where most traders hang out. You know saving air or road miles and planet earth sort of thing.

Thinking of having an early night tonight. Tomorrow will be busy for me in jobs as well as the markets.

Regards,

 

[2be]

I agree rav it would be great to meet.
I have not been trading today and I am out all day tomorrow too.
Have had a quick look; Cable on daily is above 8 & 13 EMA with BB bands pointing up and not contracting,
Stochastic over-bought lines crossing from above around 85, but ADX 26,7 though sloping down, CCI crossed 100 from above and MACD histogram is writing divergence. SMA 50 crossed from above SMA 100 earlier in March and price is still well above SMA 200 though SMA 200 starts to level. If the move up is to keep its momentum we might see even late 800s tomorrow, which is very possible, as the short and medium trend is up. However if todays opening is well penetrated to the downside then there might be substantial shorting opportunity towards EMA26 (around early 9600) if so, after that an assault towards January heights is likely to resume. All this assumes that USD weakness shall be greater then the weakness of GBP.
Happy trading to all.

 

[rav700]

Good Evening All..............
What Can I say Missed a big opportunity on the GBP\YEN for going long ..........................aghhhh
I love range trading but time was not on my side....
Okay what is the score for tonight.........I think it will be like watching paint dry unless in the asian session the Yen starts to perform its circus acts..........

I do want to discuss how to trade tommorow and I am currently putting a plan together .........I dont think it will require much effort but all inputs in the the BOE TRADE would be a nice topic for dicussion till tommorow...................

 

[Bez]

I'd like the "King" of the hawks swerving Mervyn to go for a mischievous 0.25 basis point increase.... He could always use the recent TV licence increase excuse, to help stave off writing a nice letter to Gordon...)))

 

[rav700]

As far as meeting up,I am cool with the decision of meeting up in north london...If there are any other ready to meet up there...........

 

[Atilla]

I'd like the "King" of the hawks swerving Mervyn to go for a mischievous 0.25 basis point increase.... He could always use the recent TV licence increase excuse, to help stave off writing a nice letter to Gordon...)))

That would be a body blow for debtors... Ouch... (that's me included )...

Now if I was the iron Chancellor as I should be...

I would be more in favour of tax increases to stave off demand for imports and consumption.

Raising rates hits industry and exports.

However, I would agree inflation is too high and we need ducking diving Mervyn to raise rates if they are serious about their purpose in life...

I've got this pencilled for 7th of June give or take a month.

 

[Atilla]

As far as meeting up,I am cool with the decision of meeting up in north london...If there are any other ready to meet up there...........

North London is cool with me...

Are we talking a sit down Sunday pub lunch somewhere delicious...

 

[rav700]

My Thoughts on tommorow:
1: I am expecting no hike in intrest rates
2: I am expecting the Cable to fall on this news about 400 pips within 7 days which will be mainly due to
Profit taking and then we shall see the rise to the 2$ mark. I think there is a big possibility of seeing this happen before the end of April.....
3. The reason I see that cable can only get stronger is because we are still expecting an intrest rate hike and the Fed are on hold or cutting rates...

How do we trade tommorow's report..............
I am 90% confident that cable will drop its socks on the announcement............We have a big possibility of seeing the low 600's by 5:00 P.M...Also I am taking the Profit taking into consideration.....due to the easter holidays...

I will be trading GBP\JPY and GBP\USD.........2 Pairs
Again Short on both is my view and ONLY MINE I think at this point...

I want to post the chart but am having some issues at this time.

Happy Trading
Rav

 

[rav700]

Article from Investica:
The Bank of England will remain concerned over inflation with a particular focus on wage inflation, especially as wage settlements have edged higher over the past 2-3 months. The consumer inflation data rose to 2.8% in February from 2.7% the previous month and the RPI inflation rate was at an 11-year high. Headline consumer inflation should still fall over the next few months even though oil prices have strengthened again.

In this environment, the bank is likely to maintain a tightening bias for policy, especially as the housing data is still holding firm. It will be another very close judgement call at this month's meeting.

The stock market and currency turbulence seen at the time of the previous meeting has eased and this will make it easier for the bank to sanction another interest rate increase if it is considered necessary.

Overall, the bank is more likely to wait for further economic evidence and next month's inflation report before deciding whether another increase in rates is required.

Nevertheless, there is a strong probability that some members will vote for an increase this time with only 2-3 members likely to cast the pivotal votes. Overall, the chances of an increase look to be near 50%.

Sterling will fall if rates are not increased, although it should recover relatively quickly given expectations that rates will be increased in May. The UK currency will jump stronger if rates are increased, although gains could reverse quickly on speculation that rates have peaked.

 

[29Investments]

Morning all;

From Thomson

London,
April 5. Cable has broken below the base of today"s 1.9751-1.9767 Asian session
range in early European trade, as the continent absorbs the Times MPC
recommendation that the BoE leave the UK base rate at 5.25% at 11:00GMT today.
That "hold" recommendation, delivered by a 5-4 vote, contrasts with the 8-1 vote
from the "Shadow" MPC in favour of a 25bp hike to 5.5% (Sunday Times).
Demand is tipped at 1.9715, an approximate 38.2% Fibo retracement point of
the rally from last Friday"s low of 1.9544 (plumbed on heavy GBP/CAD selling) to
Tuesday"s 10-week peak of 1.9823 (notched with the assistance of M&A-related GBP
demand). 1.9717 was yesterday"s traded low (in both Asia and Europe).
Sell interest is noted at 1.9775--a pip ahead of yesterday"s traded high.
Additional offers reportedly reside at 1.9785--a pip ahead of Tuesday"s NY
session peak, 1.9820/25 and 1.9840/45. An exotic option barrier sits at 1.9850.
March"s Halifax UK house price survey will be published at 07:00GMT. UK
February IP and MP data is due at 08:30GMT. [email protected]

 

[29Investments]

...and from 4CAST;

07:10 - The early move has been down through Wed's pivot to hit key 1.9730-20 support, but GBP's Still basically in balance this am. & is probably going to set up for a sharper move this pm. Next smaller level down is 1.9680. Next bigger line is at 1.9620. If GBP's back at 1.9760 at 12:00 after probing lower this am., favour a rally. Bias long above 1.9780. [NR]


R5: 1.9915 ** Jan-07 high
R4: 1.9845 * Dec-06 high
R3: 1.9830 * 24-Jan high
R2: 1.9820 * 3-Apr high
R1: 1.9780~ 3-Apr pivot
S1: 1.9730 * 22-Mar high
S2: 1.9725 * 26-Mar/ last week high
S3: 1.9680 2-Apr am pivot
S4: 1.9625 30-Mar high volume
S5: 1.962 * 30-Mar breakpt

 

[29Investments]

Looks like that one leaked then !

sitting at 765 until 5 mins b4 data

 

[Offshore Trader]

Yep.... looks like you are right 29..... it would be nice to see some movement in the market before 12 noon....a test of 720 would be good. If the BOE hikes today I could be stuffed....

 

[Atilla]

Looks like that one leaked then !

sitting at 765 until 5 mins b4 data

Yep. Rigged.

Trade the rumour... :cheesy:

Trade the move...