Eur/usd going stratospheric ?

[glyder]

I've seen contrarian reports / analysis that the Euro will take off bigtime...back up to around 1.44.
I don't know what contrarians base their thinking on, I didn't read on, but I would imagine that is most likely a scenario where the Euro comes to resemble the former Deutschemark.

At the moment I'll agree with Wackypete - the fundamentals haven't changed.
Really I don't see how they can. Thisi sjust more debt. Or printing perhaps. Even with Eurobonds, if they were introduced - that is just going to drag Germany down in the long run, not lift Greece, Spain, Portugal etc. Sharing Germany's money won't turn these countries into hard working efficient industrial powerhouses and thats got to happen to make eruobonds work. And to make austerity work too. Either way, not good. This is another quick fix.

But, definitely a bullish day today.

 

[ZEN archer]

I wonder how long this Eu Summit induced optimism will last re this pairing. technically today's daily candle could well close as a master bullish engulfing (thrust?) engulfing last 5 on same t/f

How do you define a master bullish engulfing BBMAC?

 

[bbmac]

How do you define a master bullish engulfing BBMAC?

It's a candle whose body engulfs more than one of the immediate previous candle bodiess -this is a master engulfing as opposed to engulfing that enguls just the last candle to it. A Thrust candle is one where the body of the candle is at least 85% of the total candle including the hi and lo wicks.

A bearish example is below on the same Eurusd Daily t/f;

G/L

 

[BeginnerJoe]

This master engulfing candle with a thrust sounds impressive enough for me to want to go all in.

 

[tony1979]

This master engulfing candle with a thrust sounds impressive enough for me to want to go all in.

You should do it.

 

[bbmac]

This master engulfing candle with a thrust sounds impressive enough for me to want to go all in.

I'd better not even mention the Sooooper Dooooper Hippedy Hop Hang Dang Doolay Full Hit Squad Master - the market is my bitch- Engulfing then...!

G/L

 

[counter_violent]

I'd better not even mention the Sooooper Dooooper Hippedy Hop Hang Dang Doolay Full Hit Squad Master - the market is my bitch- Engulfing then...!

G/L

Shhh

 

[bbmac]

Just as a counter balance to that Eur rise on Friday:

(From EFX News) eFXnews : Speculators Recharged Their Short EUR Bets With An Additional Dose

After two weeks of covering their short EUR positions, speculative traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange resumed betting on the EUR's fall, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday.

Traders increased their open short EUR position by 12% from a week earlier to reach a net of $25 billion- that is still well below the record high of $33.4 billion - as of Tuesday. That is a reflection of the traders' wait and see mode before the EU Summit given that the market had general low expectations for the Summit. But as the EU leaders managed to take some coherent measures on bank capitalization and financial stability, the EUR shot up almost 1.6% on the day on these headlines.

Still, strategists at JP Morgan, Credit Agricole, and Barclays Capital are not convinced that the Summit's result is a game changer for the EUR. "while EUR/USD could squeeze another couple of cents higher given decent short positions and a risk premium on standard valuation models , all the unfinished business around delivering banking and fiscal union suggests that EUR/USD should continue to move erratically in the 1.20s over the next few months rather than trend higher," says John Normand, the head of global FX Strategy at J.P.Morgan.

Traders also significantly added to their open long USD position as they increased their bets on the dollar rise by 20% from a week earlier to reach a net of $27 billion, according to the report.

CFTC's data also showed that traders increased their open short CHF position by 235% from a week earlier to reach a net of $3.1 billion. They also decreased their open long JPY position by 70% to reach a net of $714 million, the data showed.

------------------------------

From a technical persepective the Monthly is in an opa range, the weekly in a general opa downtrend and the daily is in an opa range. Friday's daily candle was on back of eu summit but might turn out to be a short squeeeze ?

(opa = overall price action-fractal price swing hi/lo analysis)

G/L

 

[ZEN archer]

If I was to go by what I see rather than what I think, there is a divergence - good for a short in a normal (not manipulated) market

The waves are a bit ambiguous to me - whatever the case if it breaks above the high, it shouldn't be bigger than wave 3 (2nd count)

 

[stephen2003]

i think that at 1.2664 it is a sell tomorrow night when the market opens.

Decision makers have been intervening for some time. Also there is record number of shorts.

I was wondering about the point where the big players intervene again and at the same time start taking most of the stops.

At what level would you enter long before it explodes?
(after the explosion could be too late)

 

[bbmac]

i think that at 1.2664 it is a sell tomorrow night when the market opens.

Why ?

 

[stephen2003]

there is normally a correction after a big rise.

Why ?

 

[Benj1981]

i think that at 1.2664 it is a sell tomorrow night when the market opens.

How much should we sell? Does this usually work in your experience?

 

[stephen2003]

i am no expert but unless it drops when the market opens i will do an overnight sell and let it trend overnight, the sl will mean that i cannot loose money, i will then study tomorrow.

How much should we sell? Does this usually work in your experience?

 

[rsh01]

How much should we sell? Does this usually work in your experience?

Stick your house on it, its a definite.

 

[rsh01]

the sl will mean that i cannot loose money

So the trade will go immediately onside? Can you guarantee this? You seem to in your post.

 

[eighteen]

I actually think the market might buy this till next weekend, afterall we have bear fatigue.

 

[ZEN archer]

I actually think the market might buy this till next weekend, afterall we have bear fatigue.

Fade the euphoria rally and similar articles may indicate bear fatigue/pain.

I wouldn't be surprised if the manipulators push it a bit higher to test the pain threshold.

 

[bbmac]

there is normally a correction after a big rise.

This is a tenuous reason, although it is true to say that market's rarely move without corrections. You could always trade just what you see instead of what you think - whatever that is.

If I were trading it (i'm not) and re shorting I guess I'd be looking at PA and reaction to the previous minor weekly/daily swing hi at point b where the 38.2% of move a-c and 85.4% of move b-c are right at top of that potential resistance zone. The Weekly candle and Friday's daily candle just closed both suggest more upside at some point though ?

G/L

 

[stephen2003]

now now be careful,
the only certainties in life are death and the taxman (unless you are jimmy carr),
wait for the market to open and then decide,
if it trends down then get involved or wait until it trends down.

Stick your house on it, its a definite.