End of Day Dow forecasts

[Bigbusiness]

Small short on the Dow from 10,004 at the close tonight. I have a sell signal and hope to see 30 points or more lower tomorrow AM but I have also noticed that since 1970, the 28th of October has had a good move in to positive territory every time. So there is a possibility that the Dow could open strongly but I hope it will fall first. If it does open up, I will sell again.

 

[a320]

BB are you using the delta in conjunction with the traders almanac...? As one of your methods

CJ

 

[Pat494]

Should have made over 200 points so far this week. Just when I was changing my SB and other probs !!
A bit of sideways today perhaps

 

[maxpain]

I guess that a substantial drop from these levels will occur in the nearby future. P/C-ratio as well as p/c-value screaming sell. Timing as always is the problem. Maybe a short squeeze? Time will tell anyway.

 

[Bigbusiness]

BB are you using the delta in conjunction with the traders almanac...? As one of your methods

CJ

I do look at delta (if you mean the Wilder version) but it is not something I use on its own to try and predict the next day. I do have the traders almanac for 2004 but the data they use only goes back to 1993 and doesn't seem to look at the highs and lows of the day, only the close price. I have made my own spreadsheet and use data going back to 1970 for OHLC. I am not certain that the data I found in a yahoo group is good enough but I just use this as a guide and not something I would risk money on. The main methods I use are just chart patterns, cycles and observations I have made about the markets. I don't want to reveal my full method as I have spent several years working on it and it might only work for me, as I have confidence in it where others might not.

For example, I have seen a few T2W'ers point out that a head and shoulders near the end of an up day can indicate a reversal the next morning and I have seen that many times when there is a near 100 point rise one day, there is a reversal the next day. If this fits in with the cycles I am looking at and the statistics also agree, I have a good opportunity to sell at the close looking for a good move down the next day. As long as I can avoid the days that go up all day, I should be able to make a nice profit. I also try and trade my way out of the days that don't go to plan. This is not something I can write details about because it is not something that I would do if I wasn't comfortable with my own method.

 

[a320]

Thx BB...didn't expect such a detailed reply )

I'm personally a fan of Delta combined with Jenkins 6h charts, the almanac & geometry ect...
I Know some who also use variations on Taylor, but you said it best, the key is to find your own way..

 

[Bigbusiness]

Thanks a320,

I am still working on it and spend lots of hours looking at as many trading ideas as I can. Some bits of these can prove useful and sometimes I find something I haven't seen written anywhere else.

Took 30points on my short from the close from last night. Might be able to make more but I like to have a nice profit before the markets open.

 

[Carley1]

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Thanks,
Carley

 

[Bigbusiness]

Short from 10004 at the close tonight. Hope I don't spoil my recent run

 

[maxpain]

Dow in €

this chart might be of interest for some traders
Dow in €

 

[Pat494]

I see the intraday boys are a bit uncertain for today's forecast.! I'll risk a long.

 

[dc2000]

Good morning peeps
After the target hit monday I suspect the next will be produced for election day.
I will be watching todays action and expect a split to lower open making an early high around 3:15 10035 ish before down into lunch time 9960s and reverse into close. I would prefer to finish the week around 10050 mark.



As always these are just my thoughts and are not an invitation to trade

 

[maxpain]

I see the intraday boys are a bit uncertain for today's forecast.! I'll risk a long.

Also believe in an upside - limited? Bullish triangles in hourly charts (indexes & stocks). Long AZN at the moment. Dollar weakness supports up as well as a falling oil price. Guess we are close to a 7 day cycle high so I´m going cash later today.
GL

 

[dc2000]

For any following
a good move would be to take half at 10000 and move stop on rest to breakeven

 

[Pat494]

Everyone waiting on Bush, Kerry and Bin **** !
I reckon sideways Monday

 

[dc2000]

Not me
expecting a good move monday at least 150 points

 

[Pat494]

dc2000
whoopee 150 points but which way ? or do we have to work it out for ourselves ?

 

[dc2000]

UP
Im looking for my next monthly target to be hit tuesday this would normally take the form of a big move tomorrow with a large gap open 60 points or so



As always these are just my thoughts and are not an invitation to trade

 

[Pat494]

Pop and drop when the euphoria dissipates ?

 

[Pat494]

+50 points from the open yesterday. I think it may have a bit further to travel.