Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

I was asked to look at your thread. You seem to give very good forecasts. Trying to learn to trade

Thank you very much

 

[JahDave]

Here are my thoughts on the euro tonight. The C wave is in five up and it is 71.6% the size of the A wave. As strong as wave A was, I expected the C wave to be larger, and it may still turn out to be, but I don't think so. From an elliott wave perspective there are quite a few possibilities from where it is now. My preferred wave count at the moment is a flat, meaning the euro will bottom out just below the 1.1900. But keep in mind I said there are still a lot of possibilities on how this can develop from where it is now. As good as Elliott wave analysis is, there are still some time periods you just have to wait out until you get some more candles in before you have a high probability trade and this is one of those times.

 

[FX4Newbies]

Good idea JahDave to see a few more candles. Surely won't hurt and will only make your analysis clearer.

Take care,

Here are my thoughts on the euro tonight. The C wave is in five up and it is 71.6% the size of the A wave. As strong as wave A was, I expected the C wave to be larger, and it may still turn out to be, but I don't think so. From an elliott wave perspective there are quite a few possibilities from where it is now. My preferred wave count at the moment is a flat, meaning the euro will bottom out just below the 1.1900. But keep in mind I said there are still a lot of possibilities on how this can develop from where it is now. As good as Elliott wave analysis is, there are still some time periods you just have to wait out until you get some more candles in before you have a high probability trade and this is one of those times.

 

[snowrider]

.. The C wave is in five up and it is 71.6% the size of the A wave...

Hi there, I am so excited that I've found some people here discussing wave count and also focusing on EUR. I am new to this forum, and this is my 2nd posting. My first one was to replying another EW thread:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/98140-eurusd-6e-new-bull-market.html#post1173778

Anyway, my wave count is that this one-month old EUR bull could be in abc format to form a wave-6 in an extending wave-9 big bear down, and also my alternative count is that this one-month old bull is actully a starting point of a whole new big bull up (so now it is in a the explosive 3). I prefer the big bull counting because it's how my position is accumulated. However, if the 2 (i.e., the b) failed, i'll change my preferred wave count to the big bear down.

Thanks to you guys forming this thread, I'll bookmark this thread and come back to join discussion often!

 

[JahDave]

Hi there, I am so excited that I've found some people here discussing wave count and also focusing on EUR. I am new to this forum, and this is my 2nd posting. My first one was to replying another EW thread:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/98140-eurusd-6e-new-bull-market.html#post1173778

Anyway, my wave count is that this one-month old EUR bull could be in abc format to form a wave-6 in an extending wave-9 big bear down, and also my alternative count is that this one-month old bull is actully a starting point of a whole new big bull up (so now it is in a the explosive 3). I prefer the big bull counting because it's how my position is accumulated. However, if the 2 (i.e., the b) failed, i'll change my preferred wave count to the big bear down.

Thanks to you guys forming this thread, I'll bookmark this thread and come back to join discussion often!

Hi Snowrider,

I'm very glad another elliott wave person is here. Please post up your charts sometimes and let's all improve our trading together. Constructive criticism and alternate views are always very welcome. I don't usually work off the five minute charts but today I am. The euro has just finished a leading diagonal for wave 1 and should retrace back up to the 1.2560/75 area before heading back down for wave 3.

 

[JahDave]

The Euro has almost completed the C leg of a zigzag. At this stage this pattern can either be a running flat that is completing or it will have the smaller pullback for a fourth wave and then another leg up for wave five. Either way the upside potential is almost exhausted for now and I am going short soon.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Hi Dave!, I was hoping to see a move to 1.2681, which is my WR1, and then get that move DOWN, just as you were talking about.

The Euro has almost completed the C leg of a zigzag. At this stage this pattern can either be a running flat that is completing or it will have the smaller pullback for a fourth wave and then another leg up for wave five. Either way the upside potential is almost exhausted for now and I am going short soon.

 

[JahDave]

Hi Dave!, I was hoping to see a move to 1.2681, which is my WR1, and then get that move DOWN, just as you were talking about.

I'm glad to see that Ichimoku and Elliott wave are still in agreement.

 

[JahDave]

Hey Pip, what is your thought about the EUR_AUD. I've got it in a fourth wave and the fibos are making a good case for the 1.4650 area to hold before the fifth wave heads back up.

 

[4xpipcounter]

LOL. Would you expect anything different? Actually that was my WR1 talking. 1.2281 is the bottom of the cloud. 1.2782 is the top. If I remember right you got this move DOWN headed to somewhere above the bottom of my cloud, and according to your EW, you got it blowing the top of my cloud off.
I'm hope your readers are watching. That's a confluence of events. Dave's EW and Paul's IC & S&R's are agreeing.
I noticed yellowroses gave you a visit. I told her to check your thread out. We go back a long ways. A while ago, we were talking about wave counts and how they compare with what I brainwashed her with (LOL). After she gave me a visit I said, girl here's your chance. Be sure and address him properly. That's Sir EW.

I'm glad to see that Ichimoku and Elliott wave are still in agreement.

 

[JahDave]

LOL. Would you expect anything different? Actually that was my WR1 talking. 1.2281 is the bottom of the cloud. 1.2782 is the top. If I remember right you got this move DOWN headed to somewhere above the bottom of my cloud, and according to your EW, you got it blowing the top of my cloud off.
I'm hope your readers are watching. That's a confluence of events. Dave's EW and Paul's IC & S&R's are agreeing.
I noticed yellowroses gave you a visit. I told her to check your thread out. We go back a long ways. A while ago, we were talking about wave counts and how they compare with what I brainwashed her with (LOL). After she gave me a visit I said, girl here's your chance. Be sure and address him properly. That's Sir EW.

I appreciate the accolades but I'm just a plain old country boy. LOL, as always thanks for dropping buy and giving some input. I see you're building a following over there. Good luck with that and just ignore the naysayers, they're not worth responding to.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I actually enjoy them. They try to repudiate something that they have no idea what they are messing with. They confirm what I'm doing, especailly when about 6 or 7 that follow my thread have been together for 3-5 years. We're a pretty close-knit bunch. They're just sitting back laughing or ready to find the nearest plane and give him a visit--lol. Zeph is the star. He cracks me up.
I've been in the country for 12 years after 41 years in Sacramento. I guess I'm still big city ay heart. I just don't know how to act like a hillbilly. But then, I'm not formal enough to go back to the big city.

I appreciate the accolades but I'm just a plain old country boy. LOL, as always thanks for dropping buy and giving some input. I see you're building a following over there. Good luck with that and just ignore the naysayers, they're not worth responding to.

 

[JahDave]

I am posting up a weekly Dow chart with my technical stuff underneath that I have tweeked. If anyone would have pulled their 401K money out of stocks when the sell arrow came up and bought stocks when the green buy arrow came back then they would have been far ahead of the game. The indicator is a modified stochastic set at 34, 13, 8 and also the arrows are a fractal indicator that I applied on top of the stochastic. I will say that it is very flexible and I do adjust the MA periods depending on what time frame I am on and whether I want a longer or shorter term trade. I mainly use this to help confirm when wave counts are ending. In my opinion you could only use this to trade and still be very profitable.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Dave, you answered part of my e-mail with regards to the indicators.
Don't those red and green dots lag? In other words, they are placed about 2 candles after the event.
It still has me tied in knots
I won't say where I got that from in an open forum.

I am posting up a weekly Dow chart with my technical stuff underneath that I have tweeked. If anyone would have pulled their 401K money out of stocks when the sell arrow came up and bought stocks when the green buy arrow came back then they would have been far ahead of the game. The indicator is a modified stochastic set at 34, 13, 8 and also the arrows are a fractal indicator that I applied on top of the stochastic. I will say that it is very flexible and I do adjust the MA periods depending on what time frame I am on and whether I want a longer or shorter term trade. I mainly use this to help confirm when wave counts are ending. In my opinion you could only use this to trade and still be very profitable.

 

[JahDave]

Dave, you answered part of my e-mail with regards to the indicators.
Don't those red and green dots lag? In other words, they are placed about 2 candles after the event.
It still has me tied in knots
I won't say where I got that from in an open forum.

The fractal signals do lag a bit here partly because I have the MA's set at 34,13, and 8. The signal gets much faster if you shorten the ma's on the modified stochastic but you get a lot more signals. I wouldn't use these settings unless I was taking a very long position for at least several months. I was using this example because if the average 401K person would just set up a chart like this then they would be much better off than 99% of the other long term investors

 

[JahDave]

Dave, you answered part of my e-mail with regards to the indicators.
Don't those red and green dots lag? In other words, they are placed about 2 candles after the event.
It still has me tied in knots
I won't say where I got that from in an open forum.

Also this is something new I'm trying out. I didn't like what I was getting at all from the default setings so I decided to do some tweeking. In my opinion if something lags just a little it's not the end of the world as long as it is reliable and you get most of the move. I'm pretty sure there is no perfect system out there, so I'll be pretty happy to be right almost all of the time. Also I wouldn't follow this alone. You know how much I believe and use EW and Fibo.

 

[JahDave]

Back on topic with the euro. I'm posting up the hourly euro chart and I left the green lines where they were from yesterday. I am more satisfied with the euro making it right to the 1.2700. I think this is a probable area for a nice pullback. Also everyone here always wants to know if anyone doing a thread is trading live so I have my entry stop and limit lines on my chart. If I see an almost completed wave count at the 38.2% level then I will take the money there and play the bounce up and then reshort, so don't be surprised if my buy sell lines move. There will probably be some sort of bounce there before going further down. And finally if there are other Elliotticians out there then see if you can tell what is wrong with the way I have the i, ii, iii, iv, v counted for the bigger C wave. The ending level should be right here around the 1.2700 so don't think I have a bad target, it's just that technically the count is not right, so if anyone else is learning elliott wave I don't want to mess you up. I can explain why it's wrong but it's gonna get lengthy and I'm not going to spend the time unless it will help someone else.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Dave, I'm curious. Would you say through the eyes of EW that the recent move of the GBP/USD looks impulsive, and the reversal has finally started?

 

[JahDave]

Dave, I'm curious. Would you say through the eyes of EW that the recent move of the GBP/USD looks impulsive, and the reversal has finally started?

IMO, I am 99.9% certain that this wave structure on the EUR_USD and the GBP_USD and the AUD_USD is all corrective. It may be in 5's but they are all composed of of 3's and 7's of a smaller scale. That is what I was alluding to in my last post about my euro chart not being counted properly. I still think we are going to get a nice pullback like I've been saying (1.24 range euro),and then more upside.
I just got into Peurto Rico last night so I won't be posting much until I get back home next Wednesday. Have a great weekend everyone.

P.S. if you measure the first wave up on the pound and compare it to the last one then you will notice the last one is almost exactly 161.8% of the first one.

 

[JahDave]

Well what can I say about the Euro other than it has had strong momentum behind it. It did make the drop after it hit 1.27 like I thought it would, but I was surprised it was such a small pullback. I really was expecting it to go down to 1.24 range or lower. I still think the 1.35 range is the highest probability area for this large correction to be over. On my shorter term chart I have one resistance and three fibo support lines drawn. The Euro should drop to one of these support lines before advancing to new highs. I think the charts are pretty clear, but please ask any questions.