Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

Dave, is that blue line on the far right the equivalent of a 38.2% Fibo mark?
Just a question in reference to your previous post. My question is for the purpose of some personal understanding. I think I remember when the loonie was dropping like crazy and finally bottomed at .9056, I read somewhere that it had dropped somewhere in the teens wave count. It was the daily or the weekly chart they were examining. I wanted to get your take on that.[/QUOTE

You may be able to see the percentages on the very bottom of the screen. Also If I click on the pic after it loads the first time, it enlarges it again. Anyway from left to right the first two blue vertical lines encompass the entire last move down and the far right line is 68% the length of that span.

 

[JahDave]

Here is an hourly AUD chart. Look at where the fibo levels are: I have 2 scales on this chart one is the 161.8% projection of the last move up and the other is a retracement scale from the fifth wave down. The 76% retracement and the 161.8% projection are within a few pips of each other. And it wouldn't surprise me for it to make one last run up to hit these levels.

 

[4xpipcounter]

The next R I'm looking at is my WR1 at .8894. I just posted it in my thread. But then I did not get the proper bounce off the MR1. If I get a spike to your level, then it will still be within the framework for the bounce off the MR1, and then hopefully, the leg back in the DOWN.

 

[JahDave]

One more comment about the Aussie from an Elliott Wave perspective. diagonals and triangles almost always have "throw over" and break out of the trend line for a short time. also and ending diagonal is just that, the last wave in a pattern and a triangle is always the next to the last wave in a pattern. If you look at one of my previous posts you can see the euro did the same thing with an ending diagonal, but it went further than I thought it would. None the less, it was quite textbook Elliott Wave just like this one in the Aussie is in the other direction.

 

[4xpipcounter]

How do you discern that is an "ending" diagonal as opposed to a diagonal within a trend?

 

[JahDave]

How do you discern that is an "ending" diagonal as opposed to a diagonal within a trend?

You have clues from the previous waves. If you look at the A and B waves just prior to this last C wave they are both clearly 3's. That means this has to be some sort of flat and not a zig-zag. A zig-zag is what I have drawn on my euro daily chart. Anyway a C wave is always comprised of 5 smaller waves meaning a flat is always 3,3,5 and a zigzag is always 5,3,5. Also and ending diagonal is almost always 5 waves but can be 9 (rarely). This ending diagonal is only going to be five because the throw over has already occurred and it only breaks out of the trend line on the final push. This is actually an expanded flat because the C wave is quite a bit larger than the A and B wave. It's really not as difficult as it sounds. If you are interested in learning Elliott Wave theory I recommend the book Frost and Prechter wrote in the 70's, Elliott Wave Theory. I also have some good ebooks I will send you for free if you would like. They aren't as in depth as the hardback, but they are free.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my last post of the night concerning the Aussie. Get ready to stick it with a fork because it is almost done. I am in short and going to sleep.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I've read the book by Bob Prechter. I enjoy fresh reading material, so I'll read whatever you send me at: [email protected].
My queries are mainly based not on a desire to learn the EW for myself, but to see what you see through the eyes of your system.
I did notice price bounced nicely off the 61.8% Fibo that I made on the chart. That was also the area of the 26% extension of my MR1. It still has the looks of a massive explosion. I'll be glad when it happens. I'm tired of looking at my live trades in the negative--lol.
I also noticed kiwi has also started to move in the right direction for me. It was also stretched. There was so much confluential evidence I knew it had to happen eventually.

You have clues from the previous waves. If you look at the A and B waves just prior to this last C wave they are both clearly 3's. That means this has to be some sort of flat and not a zig-zag. A zig-zag is what I have drawn on my euro daily chart. Anyway a C wave is always comprised of 5 smaller waves meaning a flat is always 3,3,5 and a zigzag is always 5,3,5. Also and ending diagonal is almost always 5 waves but can be 9 (rarely). This ending diagonal is only going to be five because the throw over has already occurred and it only breaks out of the trend line on the final push. This is actually an expanded flat because the C wave is quite a bit larger than the A and B wave. It's really not as difficult as it sounds. If you are interested in learning Elliott Wave theory I recommend the book Frost and Prechter wrote in the 70's, Elliott Wave Theory. I also have some good ebooks I will send you for free if you would like. They aren't as in depth as the hardback, but they are free.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Sounds like you are ready to bank the big one. I am too. I just won't get the pips you will. I can feel it. You are smelling the end to the printing business.

Here is my last post of the night concerning the Aussie. Get ready to stick it with a fork because it is almost done. I am in short and going to sleep.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my last post of the night concerning the Aussie. Get ready to stick it with a fork because it is almost done. I am in short and going to sleep.

Well it did make the .8857 on my charts, but that was good enough for me. I think we will see a bounce from the line it is sitting on before it proceeds down.

 

[JahDave]

Back to the Euro......I'm looking for a short term bounce on the hour chart and then some more down. Long term is still up.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my daily Aussie chart

 

[JahDave]

Back to the Euro......I'm looking for a short term bounce on the hour chart and then some more down. Long term is still up.

Here is an updated Euro hour chart. If you look a few posts back I just said I was trying to not jump the gun and I did it last night again. Anyway, I think the Euro is starting a bounce right now that will be 100 pips or so before heading back down. Hopefully the candles will follow the red line.

 

[FX4Newbies]

Hello JahDave,

Just looking at your Eur-Usd chart...you're definitely an EW trader . When the price pattern follows Elliott's theory, it can mean some very nice trades. Will subscribe to your thread so I can see what new ideas you post.

Thanks for the thread,

FX4Newbies

Here is an updated Euro hour chart. If you look a few posts back I just said I was trying to not jump the gun and I did it last night again. Anyway, I think the Euro is starting a bounce right now that will be 100 pips or so before heading back down. Hopefully the candles will follow the red line.

 

[hwsteele]

It was a nice 200 pip ride down

 

[pozzyp]

Hello mate just had a look through the Journal. Looking good liking some of those ABC patterns in line with fibs. Very interesting stuff.

 

[JahDave]

It was a nice 200 pip ride down

Thanks HW, It's about to go down again. I just went short targeting the .8575.

 

[JahDave]

Hello mate just had a look through the Journal. Looking good liking some of those ABC patterns in line with fibs. Very interesting stuff.

Thanks for the nice comments Pozzy.

 

[4xpipcounter]

This is so freaky. I'm going to stop reading your thread--LOL. The bottom of the daily cloud is .8578. I was planning on exiting at that point, then jumping back in after the bounce. You probably know this trade has been taking me all over the country, so I'm tired of looking at it on my platform. Even at that point my positions on aussie and the kiwi will still net some nice pips.
Dave, excellent job! Keep up the good work!

Thanks HW, It's about to go down again. I just went short targeting the .8575.

 

[JahDave]

This is so freaky. I'm going to stop reading your thread--LOL. The bottom of the daily cloud is .8578. I was planning on exiting at that point, then jumping back in after the bounce. You probably know this trade has been taking me all over the country, so I'm tired of looking at it on my platform. Even at that point my positions on aussie and the kiwi will still net some nice pips.
Dave, excellent job! Keep up the good work!

I'm telling you this is very crazy the way it all lines up. Even better than that is the fact that my channel is Andrew's Pitchfork...LOL. I think newbie would be proud.