Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

DO you mean 1.2123?

sorry, I did mean 1.2123

 

[JahDave]

It does look like the ending diagonal scenario is completed and the Euro is headed up. Also if anyone is following the CHF trade I mentioned then I think the 1.14 - 1.1450 area should give good resistance.

 

[JahDave]

I have had several requests for good entry and exit points so I'm putting up my USD/CHF daily chart. I think now is an excellent time to go short. If you would like to wait another 100 or so pips that will probably be ok. I just sold a small amount with a 300 pip stop expecting it to go up to the trend line, but sometimes the E wave in a triangle undershoots or overshoots the target. My initial target is below 1.00 but I think it has potential to make the .85 range. P.S. If I am correct I will start adding to my position based on pullbacks and wave counts. Good trading everyone.

My entry is short @1.1570 with a stop @1.1850 and a limit @ 1.00

Here is the CHF post from earlier

 

[JahDave]

This is what I think is the most likely short term scenario concerning the Euro.

 

[JahDave]

I have had several requests for good entry and exit points so I'm putting up my USD/CHF daily chart. I think now is an excellent time to go short. If you would like to wait another 100 or so pips that will probably be ok. I just sold a small amount with a 300 pip stop expecting it to go up to the trend line, but sometimes the E wave in a triangle undershoots or overshoots the target. My initial target is below 1.00 but I think it has potential to make the .85 range. P.S. If I am correct I will start adding to my position based on pullbacks and wave counts. Good trading everyone.

My entry is short @1.1570 with a stop @1.1850 and a limit @ 1.00

I am exiting this trade at 1.13 with 270 pip profit. I think the USD is due for a large bounce in the next few weeks and I'll look to get back in later but for now I'm taking profit and sitting out.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Dave, excellent thread! I don't use the Elliot wave as part of my methodology, but I like reading the viewpoints of thsoe that are good at using it.
It is interesting you are showing a move into the 1.35's. I use the ichimoku for trading with, and I have been showing 1.2698, which is the daily kijun. Once there, I was going to reevaluate for a possible move to the tenken at 1.3227.

 

[JahDave]

Thank you for the nice comments 4x.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my daily and hourly Euro chart today. It looks like it did go just a little further down than I thought, but after such a large drop, I was pleased to pick a bottom within 150 pips. After hitting the 1.23 area the Euro is pulling back which was expected as well. I will be looking for a good spot to get back in long in the next several days.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my daily and hourly Euro chart today. It looks like it did go just a little further down than I thought, but after such a large drop, I was pleased to pick a bottom within 150 pips. After hitting the 1.23 area the Euro is pulling back which was expected as well. I will be looking for a good spot to get back in long in the next several days.

I was early on the USD_CHF call last night and the EURO call last night. The lesson here would be I should have had an updated wave count on the pair, which I did not have and I should have moved my stop down instead of getting out altogether. Anyway Here are some updates to the charts I posted last night.

 

[JahDave]

I have had several requests for good entry and exit points so I'm putting up my USD/CHF daily chart. I think now is an excellent time to go short. If you would like to wait another 100 or so pips that will probably be ok. I just sold a small amount with a 300 pip stop expecting it to go up to the trend line, but sometimes the E wave in a triangle undershoots or overshoots the target. My initial target is below 1.00 but I think it has potential to make the .85 range. P.S. If I am correct I will start adding to my position based on pullbacks and wave counts. Good trading everyone.

My entry is short @1.1570 with a stop @1.1850 and a limit @ 1.00

Here is a longer term update on the CHF. The wave structure on the down move is corrective and not impulsive because of the overlap between waves. Therefore this looks more like a zigzag down. Corrective also means that my initial forecast down to 1.00 or below is invalidated and you can see the updated expectations on my chart. This pair should not go below 1.09.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my 1 hour CHF chart Updated tonight. It may not have completely bottomed out yet, so I am waiting for some confirmation up before going long.

 

[JahDave]

Euro Day chart for today.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Dave, your 1.3500 area matches up perfectly with the monthly tenken that is contained under the cloud. This makes for an explosive return to the DOWN.

Euro Day chart for today.

 

[JahDave]

Dave, your 1.3500 area matches up perfectly with the monthly tenken that is contained under the cloud. This makes for an explosive return to the DOWN.

I've noticed quite a few times now that the Ichimoku predictions you are making are lining up with some solid fibo and Elliott Wave levels. Very interesting stuff here. Like I said, I think I need to learn more about Ichi.

 

[JahDave]

Dave, your 1.3500 area matches up perfectly with the monthly tenken that is contained under the cloud. This makes for an explosive return to the DOWN.

I would like to see your Ichimoku chart if you don't mind posting it here.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my 1 hour CHF chart Updated tonight. It may not have completely bottomed out yet, so I am waiting for some confirmation up before going long.

Here is an alternate chart for the USD_CHF. After studying last week's move, I think the move up in the dollar may not be that large.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Here it is. That is not my forecast that it will get that high I just saw it fascinating that your analysis matches the tenken just under the monthly cloud.

I would like to see your Ichimoku chart if you don't mind posting it here.

 

[JahDave]

My take on the EUR_USD. I have noticed I tend to get the calls right but call most things a little early, so I'm going to concentrate on not jumping the gun. Anyway as you can see on the hourly chart I have a 13 wave count up in little roman numerals. that is the maximum that I have ever seen a wave extend. That tells me several things: one is that the upside potential is exhausted; two is that is a very low risk short trade; three is if I am wrong I won't have to risk a lot of pips to find out; four is that 13 waves is an impulse wave and it is never a full correction, so there will be a pullback and then another impulse up; five is that this wave had a lot of momentum behind it because it was extended; and some corrective waves are hard to decide which corrective pattern you have until very late in the correction, but this has a very high probability of being a zig-zag.

One more thing...the euro did not make it quite to the resistance level, so there is a pretty good chance it will make another run for it tonight.

 

[JahDave]

One more thing to notice on the day chart is that I have added fibo time ( that's the three vertical blue lines). It usually is not as accurate as fibonacci retracements and extensions but it is usually pretty close on the day chart. So that means the euro will probably meander it's way up until the end of August or ths first part of September

 

[4xpipcounter]

Dave, is that blue line on the far right the equivalent of a 38.2% Fibo mark?
Just a question in reference to your previous post. My question is for the purpose of some personal understanding. I think I remember when the loonie was dropping like crazy and finally bottomed at .9056, I read somewhere that it had dropped somewhere in the teens wave count. It was the daily or the weekly chart they were examining. I wanted to get your take on that.