Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[4xpipcounter]

Dave, I agree, this whole thing has blown my mind. Believe it or not I went short cable at 1.5273, thinking there was going to be a much greater pullback. I had to settle for +17 pips. The moves has been out of control.

Well what can I say about the Euro other than it has had strong momentum behind it. It did make the drop after it hit 1.27 like I thought it would, but I was surprised it was such a small pullback. I really was expecting it to go down to 1.24 range or lower. I still think the 1.35 range is the highest probability area for this large correction to be over. On my shorter term chart I have one resistance and three fibo support lines drawn. The Euro should drop to one of these support lines before advancing to new highs. I think the charts are pretty clear, but please ask any questions.

 

[JahDave]

Not much happening with the euro right now. I think every currency is waiting on the US stock market session tomorrow. I found a euro day chart that I drew projected waves on from June 17th. I'm posting a current daily chart from today and the June 17th chart. That June chart is on post #72 of this thread as well. I haven't touched the red projected lines since I drew them over a month ago. I think this makes a pretty good case for EW and technical charting as a whole. Of course no one could ever make 100% accurate predictions, but you can certainly stack the odds in your favor of knowing where markets are heading.

 

[JahDave]

Here are my updated euro charts tonight. There is still not much movement and I am still looking for the projected fibonacci levels to be hit. So I am still looking for the euro to drop before it makes new highs.

 

[JahDave]

Updated Euro charts. Still not much has changed in my opinion for the Euro. I'm still looking for a nice pullback any time now before the Euro makes the final run up.

 

[JahDave]

If the Euro has any immediate upside potential left, then it should stall out around the 1.31.
(Which is the 61.8%)

 

[4xpipcounter]

That's why I have such a high degree of respect for your methodology.

Not much happening with the euro right now. I think every currency is waiting on the US stock market session tomorrow. I found a euro day chart that I drew projected waves on from June 17th. I'm posting a current daily chart from today and the June 17th chart. That June chart is on post #72 of this thread as well. I haven't touched the red projected lines since I drew them over a month ago. I think this makes a pretty good case for EW and technical charting as a whole. Of course no one could ever make 100% accurate predictions, but you can certainly stack the odds in your favor of knowing where markets are heading.

 

[4xpipcounter]

How do you like that? I have the same exact view. I got the drop to about 1.2648.

Here are my updated euro charts tonight. There is still not much movement and I am still looking for the projected fibonacci levels to be hit. So I am still looking for the euro to drop before it makes new highs.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Your target looks more ideal than mine only because it would make for a more explosive reversal.

Updated Euro charts. Still not much has changed in my opinion for the Euro. I'm still looking for a nice pullback any time now before the Euro makes the final run up.

 

[JahDave]

Here is the current dollar index daily chart. I'm expecting the dollar to start back up any time now.

 

[brettus]

Here is the current dollar index daily chart. I'm expecting the dollar to start back up any time now.

I agree with you. I've noticed 3 month cycles or close with stocks normally around quarterly results. Dow has met resistence around 10600. GBPUSD and EURUSD may top out around here. I predict a strong dollar soon.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Do you believe it to be a correction or a complete reversal?

I agree with you. I've noticed 3 month cycles or close with stocks normally around quarterly results. Dow has met resistence around 10600. GBPUSD and EURUSD may top out around here. I predict a strong dollar soon.

 

[JahDave]

Euro update with charts. I am posting three charts today. Long, medium and shorter time frame. I think they are self explanatory, but if not please ask any questions. The bottom line is if the Euro has any upside left at all it should not exceed the 1.3127. That level is the 38.2% retracement of the move down that started at the 1.5143 in December 2009, so that makes it a very big number. Also if you notice the wave pattern has completed or very nearly completed the fifth wave of C. There is even a pretty good possibility that this is the entire correction for the Euro and it is headed to new lows. In my opinion that is about a 25% chance. I think the probability of the Euro dropping 600 pips to the 1.25 area before finding support is about 90%. Anyway, good trading to all and I hope everyone scores some positive pips.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I feel like this is cat and mouse between our 2 threads.

Euro update with charts. I am posting three charts today. Long, medium and shorter time frame. I think they are self explanatory, but if not please ask any questions. The bottom line is if the Euro has any upside left at all it should not exceed the 1.3127. That level is the 38.2% retracement of the move down that started at the 1.5143 in December 2009, so that makes it a very big number. Also if you notice the wave pattern has completed or very nearly completed the fifth wave of C. There is even a pretty good possibility that this is the entire correction for the Euro and it is headed to new lows. In my opinion that is about a 25% chance. I think the probability of the Euro dropping 600 pips to the 1.25 area before finding support is about 90%. Anyway, good trading to all and I hope everyone scores some positive pips.

 

[JahDave]

I feel like this is cat and mouse between our 2 threads.

I certainly am glad when I post a forecast and find out that your S&R's and Ichimoku back up my EW and Fibo. When both of our methods are in agreement I have noticed the accuracy is great.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I don't know if you got my e-mail or not, but I wrote in there that Max has almost the identical forecast we do. Along with AF, that is the big four-for-four.
So far, not exactly a flying start. 3 trades are up, 2 are down, and 1 is breakeven for a total of a net +37 pips.

I certainly am glad when I post a forecast and find out that your S&R's and Ichimoku back up my EW and Fibo. When both of our methods are in agreement I have noticed the accuracy is great.

 

[JahDave]

I don't know if you got my e-mail or not, but I wrote in there that Max has almost the identical forecast we do. Along with AF, that is the big four-for-four.
So far, not exactly a flying start. 3 trades are up, 2 are down, and 1 is breakeven for a total of a net +37 pips.

I haven't checked email for 2 weeks, but I'll go check it now. LMAO Things are getting off to a very slow start, I'm thinking everything may be waiting on the U.S. market tomorrow again.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Look at the daily candles on the yen crosses. I thought about loading up on the yen crosses instead of the majors. Oh well, my 6 trades are +103 right now. The fun will start after the D1's get hit.
Watch! The directives will be established during London, we won't habe to wait until the plane lands in NY. For now, I'm enjoying Tokyo, and then I'll sleep through London, and then wake up to more pips, or at least that is the gameplan.

I haven't checked email for 2 weeks, but I'll go check it now. LMAO Things are getting off to a very slow start, I'm thinking everything may be waiting on the U.S. market tomorrow again.

 

[JahDave]

I am posting up an Aussie chart because i follow it regularly and trade it myself and also because it almost always leads the euro. Anyway as you can see on the chart it is getting close to finishing it's current uptrend for the short term and if it can break the .9067 then it is almost guaranteed to go much lower. If it makes it then I have the most probable high at .9237, but I don't think it will make it there. If you wanted to play the trade more safe then enter a short at .9065 or at .9230. Good trading everyone...

 

[4xpipcounter]

Dave, I didn't think you'd mind me posting one of my charts on your thread, but it's retrospect to your post and your stated forecast.
Don't pay attention to the numbers on the far right. They mean nothiing. The dotted line on top is the 23.6% mark of YP--YR1. .8974 is the YP, and of course, we had a daily close above it. Therefore, odds are it will progress to its extension, which is that mark of .9256, which once again, shows how closely aligned your EW analysis is with the totality of my S&R's. How it happens that way is what I don't know. When I constructed them 3 years ago, I did not have the EW in mind. I wanted a system that could show me, in advance, where key levels of S&R would be, along with the depth and range of the trend.
If you are right about it trailing the euro, that means we are due for a further splashdown on the cross. This would indicate that once aussie gets turned around it is going to have more teeth than any of the other majors. The EUR/AUD has a long ways to go UP, not DOWN.
Mr. man-of-few-words here. Time for me to shut up. It's your thread.

I am posting up an Aussie chart because i follow it regularly and trade it myself and also because it almost always leads the euro. Anyway as you can see on the chart it is getting close to finishing it's current uptrend for the short term and if it can break the .9067 then it is almost guaranteed to go much lower. If it makes it then I have the most probable high at .9237, but I don't think it will make it there. If you wanted to play the trade more safe then enter a short at .9065 or at .9230. Good trading everyone...

 

[JahDave]

My friend over at FX4Newbies just posted a triangle pattern that I had not noticed before so I am putting up a Euro 1 hour chart with it on it. In Elliott Wave land a triangle is always the next to last pattern in a wave sequence. For example. If there is an ABC pattern then a triangle will always be the B wave and if there is a 12345 pattern then a triangle will always be wave 4. So with that in mind then the Euro should make one more break down before a partial retracement back up of the down move, and then make another five waves down.