Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[FX4Newbies]

Hello JahDave,

Just thought I would post the chart here that you referred to in case someone wants to see it.

FX4Newbies

My friend over at FX4Newbies just posted a triangle pattern that I had not noticed before so I am putting up a Euro 1 hour chart with it on it. In Elliott Wave land a triangle is always the next to last pattern in a wave sequence. For example. If there is an ABC pattern then a triangle will always be the B wave and if there is a 12345 pattern then a triangle will always be wave 4. So with that in mind then the Euro should make one more break down before a partial retracement back up of the down move, and then make another five waves down.

 

[JahDave]

My friend over at FX4Newbies just posted a triangle pattern that I had not noticed before so I am putting up a Euro 1 hour chart with it on it. In Elliott Wave land a triangle is always the next to last pattern in a wave sequence. For example. If there is an ABC pattern then a triangle will always be the B wave and if there is a 12345 pattern then a triangle will always be wave 4. So with that in mind then the Euro should make one more break down before a partial retracement back up of the down move, and then make another five waves down.

The Euro did exactly what it should have done. It pushed out of the bottom of the triangle for wave five and is completing and ABC back up. It should start back down for five waves any time now.

 

[FX4Newbies]

Hey Dave,

We actually agreed with price. That is always good . Been looking at Usd-Jpy though.

Take care,

FX4Newbies

The Euro did exactly what it should have done. It pushed out of the bottom of the triangle for wave five and is completing and ABC back up. It should start back down for five waves any time now.

 

[FSTrader]

Good thread. You're doing a good job.

 

[FX4Newbies]

I agree.

Take care,

Fx4Newbies

Good thread. You're doing a good job.

 

[JahDave]

Thank you both for the nice comments.

Now for today the Euro seems to be following a nice normal wave progression. The tricky part of wave analysis is that sometimes you have something developing that can be several patterns and I tend to decide which one it is too early sometimes and I am wrong and make a bad trade. I mentioned that because it is very easy to spot a wave pattern developing and overlook the other possible patterns that might be developing. Anyway enough rambling.....
Now for the Euro. I am putting up an hourly chart and if compared to the one from yesterday the Euro seems on track right now to make the five waves down. I have three red support lines added in based on Fibo levels and i think the most likely one that will be hit is the 1.3005. That is how I'm playing it.

Good trading everyone,
Dave

 

[JahDave]

Thank you both for the nice comments.

Now for today the Euro seems to be following a nice normal wave progression. The tricky part of wave analysis is that sometimes you have something developing that can be several patterns and I tend to decide which one it is too early sometimes and I am wrong and make a bad trade. I mentioned that because it is very easy to spot a wave pattern developing and overlook the other possible patterns that might be developing. Anyway enough rambling.....
Now for the Euro. I am putting up an hourly chart and if compared to the one from yesterday the Euro seems on track right now to make the five waves down. I have three red support lines added in based on Fibo levels and i think the most likely one that will be hit is the 1.3005. That is how I'm playing it.

Good trading everyone,
Dave

Well I got the first part of that move right and the last part wrong.

Now for what is currently unfolding. I'm putting up an Ichimoku 30 minute euro chart. I have started using Ichimoku because of my friend Paul. His thread is "Some of My Trade Forecasts" and he has some killer S&R levels and is an expert in Ichi charting. I thought it was very interesting that the Euro bounced right up to test the top of the cloud and we'll see if that holds. I suspect it will. Also I am putting up my regular euro day and three hour charts' and my thoughts about those are as follows. First notice that the Euro has broken through the Andrews Pitchfork support. I think this is significant. Second, I stated after the first leg of this A wave I thought this move had a lot of momentum and the third leg should too. It even surprised me how extended it was. Third, I still suspect that we are just starting a B wave on the bigger scale, but it is possible this could be the entire correction for the Euro. The only way to know this is to analyze the wave structure down as it unfolds, so I'll give my usual thoughts, right or wrong.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my take on the USD_CHF,

I am posting an hour and a daily chart here so please ask any questions if you don't understand the implications. The cool part about this is that it pretty much lines up with my Euro thoughts about the Euro just starting a large B wave. It wasn't until I finished charting out the Frank until I noticed that. One more thing........I have the dollar slide finished with an ending diagonal and a pretty big overshoot on the C or 3 wave of that. The Elliott Wave theory book says that the third wave in a triangle or ending diagonal can over or undershoot support or resistance.

Good Trading All,
Dave

One more thing here. The top resistance line can be redrawn to the current two tops, in which case the dollar could drop a long way before the medium rebound takes place. I am currently long USD but am protecting my profit and I did not want anyone to take a large loss on this pair if that is the case.

 

[FX4Newbies]

Glad you find the Pitchfork useful JahDave .

Take care,

FX4Newbies

Well I got the first part of that move right and the last part wrong.

Now for what is currently unfolding. I'm putting up an Ichimoku 30 minute euro chart. I have started using Ichimoku because of my friend Paul. His thread is "Some of My Trade Forecasts" and he has some killer S&R levels and is an expert in Ichi charting. I thought it was very interesting that the Euro bounced right up to test the top of the cloud and we'll see if that holds. I suspect it will. Also I am putting up my regular euro day and three hour charts' and my thoughts about those are as follows. First notice that the Euro has broken through the Andrews Pitchfork support. I think this is significant. Second, I stated after the first leg of this A wave I thought this move had a lot of momentum and the third leg should too. It even surprised me how extended it was. Third, I still suspect that we are just starting a B wave on the bigger scale, but it is possible this could be the entire correction for the Euro. The only way to know this is to analyze the wave structure down as it unfolds, so I'll give my usual thoughts, right or wrong.

 

[JahDave]

Well it didn't take long for the break below the trendline to accelerate. I have labeled the 1 hour chart as a completed wave 1 but that is not guaranteed, that is only what I think the best odds are. The reasons I feel this way are not Elliott Wave related. The first is that after a trendline break a currency pair usually goes back up and tests the old trendline. The second is that on the daily chart there is a really nice doji. From my experience candlestick patterns on the daily chart carry a lot of weight. Now from an Elliott Wave perspective wave 2 is usually a deeper retracement than a wave 4 will be, but that is a guideline and not a rule.

 

[JahDave]

Here is the cold hard truth.......I am a better chartist than trader. I have been making money in the markets for quite some time now, but I have been charting well longer. The only reason I mention this is because I was charting well and still losing money for quite some time. I finally realized that if I could not trade what I was charting with some discipline than I would never be a successful trader. So the bottom line is this........You can be an average chartist and good trader and make money consistenly, but even if you are a great chartist and a poor trader then you will still lose money consistently.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Dave, I'm tickled you are getting some good or maybe a perspective from the ichimoku cloud. In seeing someone else benefit makes my personal efforts worthwhile.
I know this is hindsight, and at the point of that post the DOWN was already under way, but that is an extreme bearish cloud you posted. It was a perfect bounce off the top. Bearish into the future. The TK are both leveled way below the cloud. It definitely has some catching up to do on the downside.

Well I got the first part of that move right and the last part wrong.

Now for what is currently unfolding. I'm putting up an Ichimoku 30 minute euro chart. I have started using Ichimoku because of my friend Paul. His thread is "Some of My Trade Forecasts" and he has some killer S&R levels and is an expert in Ichi charting. I thought it was very interesting that the Euro bounced right up to test the top of the cloud and we'll see if that holds. I suspect it will. Also I am putting up my regular euro day and three hour charts' and my thoughts about those are as follows. First notice that the Euro has broken through the Andrews Pitchfork support. I think this is significant. Second, I stated after the first leg of this A wave I thought this move had a lot of momentum and the third leg should too. It even surprised me how extended it was. Third, I still suspect that we are just starting a B wave on the bigger scale, but it is possible this could be the entire correction for the Euro. The only way to know this is to analyze the wave structure down as it unfolds, so I'll give my usual thoughts, right or wrong.

 

[4xpipcounter]

The same kind of thing happened to me on the GBP/CHF the other day. I called for the reversal at circa 1.6748. It reversed at that exact point. The trade was executed via sell limit. I set a rare stop of 1 point in back of that, because I feared of what I saw as implications on the weekly and monthly charts. It hit the stop, and then proceeded to move even as we see it right now.
Someimes, it happens we're better traders than forecasters. Current examples are the net gains I have on my 5 USD pairs. I just wasn't too perfect in calling the reversal points.
Then, there's the NZD/JPY. I set the sell limit before I went on vacation. It hit, as well as my TP while I was on vacation. Perfect forecast, perfect trade netted +123 pips.
You hit the nail on the head. You trade what you chart. You don't need peripheral support. That is why you continue to have consistent net gains, which translates into enough $$$ to make going to the bank worthwhile.

Here is the cold hard truth.......I am a better chartist than trader. I have been making money in the markets for quite some time now, but I have been charting well longer. The only reason I mention this is because I was charting well and still losing money for quite some time. I finally realized that if I could not trade what I was charting with some discipline than I would never be a successful trader. So the bottom line is this........You can be an average chartist and good trader and make money consistenly, but even if you are a great chartist and a poor trader then you will still lose money consistently.

 

[JahDave]

Just a note on the Euro Aussie pair. I have just gone long on this pair because the next move up should be huge. I may be in 100 pips or so early but I don't think so. Anyway, I'll put a chart up on this pair before the market opens on Sunday.

 

[JahDave]

Just a note on the Euro Aussie pair. I have just gone long on this pair because the next move up should be huge. I may be in 100 pips or so early but I don't think so. Anyway, I'll put a chart up on this pair before the market opens on Sunday.

Here is the daily and hourly EUR_AUD charts. My most probable target for wave three is the 1.6500 with a wave 4 pullback there and then up to 1.7550 area to finish this move up. Anyway there are some exciting times coming up in the near future for most pairs.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Dave, this is my monthly chart. The blue line is the tenken at 1.7525. That is the minimum upside objective, because of the stochastics being in OS territory. Once we get a monthly finish above 1.5188, it should pick up momentum. That level is the kijun. Once again, I wanted to show how congruent our forecasts are.

Here is the daily and hourly EUR_AUD charts. My most probable target for wave three is the 1.6500 with a wave 4 pullback there and then up to 1.7550 area to finish this move up. Anyway there are some exciting times coming up in the near future for most pairs.

 

[JahDave]

My pick of the night is long USD_JPY. You can see from my entry that I'm early as usual but this pair should go to at least the 86.60 level before coming back down...

Good trading,
Dave

 

[JahDave]

Also on the 5 minute chart it has extended down as far as it can go by Elliott Wave Rules, so if it goes further down then I either counted wrong or Elliott Wave is invalidated...

 

[JahDave]

Also on the 5 minute chart it has extended down as far as it can go by Elliott Wave Rules, so if it goes further down then I either counted wrong or Elliott Wave is invalidated...

Let's just see which one happens...........LOL

 

[JahDave]

Here' my 5 minute chart...... If you already have a profit then protect it...