Dow 2007

what is the significance of a double top? Yesterday I watched the DOW make what might have been a double bottom at 19:57 .. then it rebounded .. (I was on board:cheesy: but not because of a double bottom .. just on a hunch)

Double tops are usually a confirmation of resistance ie a second opinion.
Double bottoms are the same in reverse.... clearly your intuition/subconscious knows abut the importance of a double bottom :LOL:

Doubles also guide you as to where to put your stop and thus help risk management but I teaching you to suck eggs sorry .....:eek:

Anyway S&p futs have been held back by 1484 since last Friday... ie the rally off the big lows is stalling at 1484 for now at least
 
Just to be clear........

Double tops are usually a confirmation of resistance ie a second opinion.
Double bottoms are the same in reverse.... clearly your intuition/subconscious knows abut the importance of a double bottom :LOL:

Doubles also guide you as to where to put your stop and thus help risk management but I teaching you to suck eggs sorry .....:eek:

Anyway S&p futs have been held back by 1484 since last Friday... ie the rally off the big lows is stalling at 1484 for now at least

The daily chart of the S&p futures shows a pennant consolidation which means a huge move is probably coming ............so the 1484 on the futs is just something to watch for potential resistance cos if the big move starts today turns out to be UP it will probably go through it as if it wasn't there .... kind of like the famous Maradona goal .... in Mexico 86 ...i think :cheesy:
Or maybe I should have said like one of the Beckham's famous free kicks :LOL:
 
Double tops are usually a confirmation of resistance ie a second opinion.
Double bottoms are the same in reverse.... clearly your intuition/subconscious knows abut the importance of a double bottom :LOL:

Doubles also guide you as to where to put your stop and thus help risk management but I teaching you to suck eggs sorry .....:eek:

Anyway S&p futs have been held back by 1484 since last Friday... ie the rally off the big lows is stalling at 1484 for now at least

hey, I never sucked an egg in my life. All knowledge is gratefully received.
How did you play the gap up today? I finally got sucked in and went short on the FTSE
 
Good morning all, back to trading next week, logged in to kick the brain into "work" mode again, I hope you are all well and have succeeded in the markets, clearly I've missed a volatile time, if I'm honest, I don't like them as I prefer consistent markets.

HS, can I ask regarding the S&P post, you mentioned 1484 futures, as I use cash, where do you get your data feed for futures for this info.

Not sure if anybody has noticed, but I'm looking to start a thread for trading the CAC, if anybody is interested, let me know, if not, I don't want to waste my time
 
Nightmare question...

hey, I never sucked an egg in my life. All knowledge is gratefully received.
How did you play the gap up today? I finally got sucked in and went short on the FTSE
The shortened version is I was watching cnbc asia in early hours with dow around 270cash .... they said something about an announcement around 4am so set alarm so could catch potential move .... but then ignored the alarm... :eek:

Consequently, I am playing the short side ... as you may have gathered from earlier post.........and it's been profitable :LOL:
 
Great Question...

Good morning all, back to trading next week, logged in to kick the brain into "work" mode again, I hope you are all well and have succeeded in the markets, clearly I've missed a volatile time, if I'm honest, I don't like them as I prefer consistent markets.

HS, can I ask regarding the S&P post, you mentioned 1484 futures, as I use cash, where do you get your data feed for futures for this info.

Not sure if anybody has noticed, but I'm looking to start a thread for trading the CAC, if anybody is interested, let me know, if not, I don't want to waste my time

S&p futs are from http://www.futuresource.com

They have 5min charts which is great....despite not being live..

Weclome back:D

http://www.tradestalker.com
free email to your box ... but you can pay for the service if you want the night before gameplan
I'm not connected I just like their performance... for daytraders and swingers alike

Go on (everyone) register today - you know it makes sense....
 
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I think this 13300-400 (cash) band is going to be a major battle ground.

With the falling MACD bars and the overbought Stochastic indicator, failing any significant news announcements the market is set to fall.

I'll change my view if 13400 is breached.

Somebody mentioned people are away hence the low volume. It could be we are simply waiting for next week for 12500 to be tested. :rolleyes:
 

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I think we might have a good rally today. I think 13400 might be breached, but it will turn shortly after. But I could be completely wrong!

The .618 fib line of the 14021 to 12512 move and the .768 fib line of the 13696 and 12512 move are pretty much on top of each other at around 13445. This would make sense as I thought the previous downturn was a bit premature as it had far exceeded the .618 fib but was also a good 50 points off of the .768 line. The previously mentioned news might help the index reach these levels, plus spirits will be higher today as it's a holiday in the US on Monday.
 
Good morning all, back to trading next week,
Not sure if anybody has noticed, but I'm looking to start a thread for trading the CAC, if anybody is interested, let me know, if not, I don't want to waste my time

Hi Dinos,
Welcome back. Glad you had a good holiday & expect you may need a change from the kids etc.
I trade the CAC on an EOD basis.
 
Hi Pat,

Thanks, great time, back to reality now, If you don't mind me asking, how do you trade the CAC, day, position?
 
Hi Pat,

Thanks, great time, back to reality now, If you don't mind me asking, how do you trade the CAC, day, position?

I've got 2 profitable systems for trading the CAC. I have been testing the 2 systems since last November on the CAC and 6 other indexes. On the CAC I've made 627 points with one and 1150 with the other, mostly theoretically. Just started trading for real recently. Fingers crossed. Having a slight problem on exits though. I like trailing stops basically, but get upset when profit evaporates.
Sometimes in hindsight the stop was too close and sometimes not close enough. I guess this is just the way it goes though.

Do you use trailing stops ?
 
Finally BB is taking the credit situation on. Imho Greenspan let it go wobbly at the end of his reign. BB should have jumped on the problem on his first speech or second at the latest. Its not exactly a new problem.
 
Finally BB is taking the credit situation on. Imho Greenspan let it go wobbly at the end of his reign. BB should have jumped on the problem on his first speech or second at the latest. Its not exactly a new problem.
Depends on what his intention is/was..... saw an interesting interview on bloomberg recently when Ed Hyman (ISI) said BB knows his game .... he researched these kind of sits for years so any delay in acting .... might be intentional .......... they want a slow down ... a serious one.... they want pain ... financial crises/ crying babies sorry spex..
He implied this was all manufacutured... (my interpretation) and they have the solution ... like you say this stuff is not new ...

Markets should now be pretty straightforward ...... hopefully...

Edit: Dow closed last week at 13379.........
 
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Hey guys..

right today on YM i had a trade from 13320 to 13400 for +80pts. The next set up that i'm looking for is a long from around the 13354 -43 area. Working on 42t and 210t graphs.

Kevin.
 
another conspiracy doing the rounds...apologies if it's too long,cannot paste a direct link................................

Street Abuzz With 'Bin Laden' Options Trades

Aug 30, 2007 12:41:00 PM

As if the mortgage-market meltdown isn't enough to spook investors, some market players are worrying about unusual options bets that some observers have dubbed 'Bin Laden Trades.' The blogosphere and options trading desks have been rife with speculation about these trades, which are unusually large bets that the market will make a huge move in the next month. Some entity, or entities, has taken a large position on extremely deep in the money S&P 500 options, both puts and calls, that won't pay off unless the market undergoes an extremely large price move between now and the options' expiration on Sept. 21.
The positions in question have left option industry experts perplexed to come up with a rational explanation for the trades, which are far from the best or most efficient way to profit from what would be outlier events. Those worrying about the worst-case scenario are recalling that large put contracts were placed on airline stocks, notably American, a unit of AMR and United Airlines, in the weeks leading up to the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks.
The first area of focus is that open interest on September 700 S&P puts is 116,000 contracts, an unusually high number for such a low-probability trade. A put is a defensive bet that gives the holder the right to sell a security at a specified price, in this case more than 50% below the S&P 500's current level of 1463 as of Wednesday's close. For comparison's sake, according to the Option Clearing Corp., the open interest in the July 700 strike some three weeks prior to expiration on July 20 was 790 calls and 7,300 puts, and the August 700 strike showed 1,250 calls and 14,800 puts prior to Aug. 17 expiration.
And the volume completely outstrips anything seen last September, when the S&P was around 1300, some 20% below current levels. In September 2006, the 700 strike had 600 calls and 7,500 puts, and no strike below 1000 had open interest surpassing 42,000 contracts, and that was the 900 puts. The bulk of the September SPX trades in question have been put on since June 1.
Similar bets have also been placed on the DJ Eurostoxx 50 index, which won't pay off unless the index tumbles nearly 25% to 2800, or below, by expiration on the third Friday of September.
The trades have been noted in various online forums, where the worst case scenario is often the first conclusion: 'Only an act of terrorism akin to 9-11 -- within the next four weeks -- could make these options valuable,' writes one poster in the TickerForum chat room.
Others, such as the 'Just Wondrin What Happened' blog, have speculated that 'China, reeling over losing $10 billion in bad loans to the sub-prime mortgage collapse presently taking place, is going to dump U.S. currency and tank all of Capitalism with a Communist financial revolution.
' It's tempting to dismiss such chatter, especially about China since the People's Republic is widely viewed as prepping for its 'coming out party' at the Summer 2008 Beijing Olympics. Furthermore, the TickerForum posters focused on the 65,000 contracts open on SPX 700 calls, ostensibly bullish bets that give the holder the right to buy the index at that level.
Given the fact that these calls are some 700 points in-the-money, and therefore have a delta of 1.0 -- meaning the options price moves dollar-for-dollar with the underlying index -- 'the only advantage to owning them is it would be a more efficient and slightly less capital-intensive way to gain one-to-one exposure' to the S&P 500, Randy Frederick, director of derivatives at Charles Schwab, writes in an email exchange.
Frederick notes the Spyder Trust (SPY) and other index and exchange-traded products provide a much more liquid, efficient and higher-leveraged way to establish a bearish position quickly. Plus, it's a lot easier to 'hide' a big trade in the Spyders than the SPX options, which are only traded on the Chicago Board of Option Exchange and will be seen and facilitated by a tight-knit group of market makers.
Because there are about half the number of open contracts on S&P 700 calls vs. puts, it's possible these trades are part of a large strangle. There is also open interest of 61,741 on the September 1700 puts. 'Since this is only 11 contracts different from the 700 calls, it is possible that these two positions are making up a very large strangle, which could be either a breakout or neutral strategy depending upon whether or not it is a short strangle or a long strangle,' writes Frederick. 'If this is a short position, it may be anticipating the market will drop if the Fed does not cut rates as many expect' at its Sept. 18 policy meeting.
But such a strangle trade, with each leg being so deep in the money, would require a nearly 50% price move, up or down, to turn a profit. Frederick said the position leaves him more confused than scared, although he wouldn't dismiss the frightening conclusion bloggers have come to. 'It is also interesting that the anniversary of 9/11 occurs between now and the expiration of these options,' he writes. 'Perhaps there is speculation that another attack is in the works.'
A more rational, or at least less conspiratorial, theory is offered by Brian Overby, director of education at TradeKing, a discount broker that caters to sophisticated option traders. Overby notes that the September 1700 strike has open interest of 73,745 calls and 61,741 put options. 'This could be someone trying to create a box spread, which is a position composed of a long call and short put at one strike, and a short call and long put at a different strike. The position is largely immune to changes in the price of the underlying stock, and in most cases, is a simple interest rate trade.'
The box spread is premised on the fact that at expiration the value of the position must be equal to the width between the strikes of the option that are bought and sold; in this case 1,000 points, as their values all offset. The only real way to make money is to be able to buy or sell the box spread above or below the fair value.
Overby notes that given that the price spread between the bid and offer for each of the four legs could be as wide as $3 to $5, it would be nearly impossible to establish the box spread at a price that locks in a profit. So there are a few explanations for this very unusual configuration of open interest in the S&P 500 Index's September options and none seem to meet the criteria of a rational trade or position with even a remote possibility of profitability.
Those concerned about the similarities to those options trades on the airlines before the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks could extract some comfort from this excerpt from the 9/11 Commission Report: 'Exhaustive investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission, FBI, and other agencies have uncovered no evidence that anyone with advance knowledge of the attacks profited through securities transactions,' according to the Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States.
But as current chatter about the deep-in-the-money SPX trades reveals, such declarations have done little to quell traders' concerns that something wicked this way comes, and that somebody is trying to profit from it.
Steven Smith writes regularly for TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He was a seatholding member of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) from May 1989 to August 1995. During that six-year period, he traded multiple markets for his own personal account and acted as an executing broker for third-party accounts.
 
Hey guys..

right today on YM i had a trade from 13320 to 13400 for +80pts. The next set up that i'm looking for is a long from around the 13354 -43 area. Working on 42t and 210t graphs.

Kevin.

obvious long there yes, but why the exit at 13400? I see no reason to exit...move stop up to lock in profits yes but otherwise... 13500 before EOD ;)
 
Depends on what his intention is/was..... saw an interesting interview on bloomberg recently when Ed Hyman (ISI) said BB knows his game Yeah right, sure he does. :rolleyes: What happens if you drive too fast. You break hard! He has totally misjudged the speed to enter the bend and now trying to control his vehicle whilst changing gear. Call it advanced macro micro economics. .... he researched these kind of sits for years so any delay in acting .... might be intentional Might be? Might not be? Let's see what the tarrot cards read for September. :LOL: .......... they want a slow down Want or getting one? Up for dispute! ... a serious one What's wrong with a funny slow down? .... they want pain They could always jump off the grand canyon! ... financial crises/ crying babies sorry spex.. That's the problem with capitalism. People always wanting not what they need. :LOL: :cheesy:
He implied this was all manufacutured... They have super powers. Super manufacturing powers...(my interpretation) and they have the solution Yes. Why not launch another war to stimulate the economy...:LOL: ... like you say this stuff is not new ... Heard it all before but this is a much better version... :LOL:

Markets should now be pretty straightforward ...... hopefully...

Edit: Dow closed last week at 13379.........

HS mi ol china, I do hope you don't buy all this stuff. I really do. To recap, the two budget defecits are the excesses of Mr Greenspan response to the economic challenges facing the US economy.

To give the same medicine that led us to this obese beast would surely end up in some tragic cardiovascular arrest.

To claim it was calculated and intentionaly should go into one of the x-files episode.

As I write this I'm looking at the DOW go through 13400. Just goes to show I know nothing.

I'm now bullish on the DOW. Will I trade no not yet, wait for next week. Had my fill for this week.
 
obvious long there yes, but why the exit at 13400? I see no reason to exit...move stop up to lock in profits yes but otherwise... 13500 before EOD ;)

Right at the moment we'rte trading at 13446, i'm looking for a pull back to 13400 for a long.

As for why get off at 400.. Have a look at the range of the 24th and 27 and the volume within them two days.
 
Right at the moment we'rte trading at 13446, i'm looking for a pull back to 13400 for a long.

As for why get off at 400.. Have a look at the range of the 24th and 27 and the volume within them two days.

Indeed 13400 was a resistance level (as I also pointed out on the 27th itself see http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=354045&postcount=6154), which I why I scaled out a part of my position and moved stops up.

Actually overnight trading shows it very obvious... no need to go back that far.

But you never know what could happen next, and in this case it broke higher. Which is why I am happy with leaving open some of that long.

So you enter & exit at once (whole position)? (I'm not saying that my exit strategy is superior, far from...)
 
You're still working to hard

HS mi ol china, I do hope you don't buy all this stuff. I really do. To recap, the two budget defecits are the excesses of Mr Greenspan response to the economic challenges facing the US economy.

To give the same medicine that led us to this obese beast would surely end up in some tragic cardiovascular arrest.

To claim it was calculated and intentionaly should go into one of the x-files episode.

As I write this I'm looking at the DOW go through 13400. Just goes to show I know nothing.

I'm now bullish on the DOW. Will I trade no not yet, wait for next week. Had my fill for this week.

Atilla, darling .... time does not permit me to address each one of theponts you raise and it would bore the others any way (probably). I understand where you are coming from but I don't necessarily agree with your position.

I happen to believe that the economy is "managed" .... boom and busts don't just happen........ Sure there will be some unintended consequences but for the most part it can be managed relatively easily by those in control. One day they will have a rescue act that will really test them one day.... but I would imagine they have thought of that and have a plan which they believe will be successful... Given their track record the odds are that we will get through this. Greenspan .... yeh he did some interesting things but they had to be sanctioned .. by his supervisor :)

Ed Hyman... an eminent economist (one of your gang) appears very well infomed and his forecasting track record speaks for itself. Over the years you learn a lot about who really knows what's going on and who is just postulating..... You also learn about people who don't know how to lose money.... it's amazing. Some of them are actually quite famous... but you might not immediately think of them as hot shot investors. But many of them run the "show".

I have every respect for your education and intellect but we may have to agree to disagree on these points.

with grreat fondness :)
Hs
 
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