Dow 2007

[firewalker99]

Good morning all, back to trading next week, logged in to kick the brain into "work" mode again, I hope you are all well and have succeeded in the markets, clearly I've missed a volatile time, if I'm honest, I don't like them as I prefer consistent markets.

HS, can I ask regarding the S&P post, you mentioned 1484 futures, as I use cash, where do you get your data feed for futures for this info.

Not sure if anybody has noticed, but I'm looking to start a thread for trading the CAC, if anybody is interested, let me know, if not, I don't want to waste my time

Hi Dinos and a very "welcome" back!
Hope you enjoyed your time off and are ready to roll

As for CAC40, I just noticed your new thread and posted a comment there.

 

[Hook Shot]

1484 S&p futs mission accomplished

The daily chart of the S&p futures shows a pennant consolidation which means a huge move is probably coming ............so the 1484 on the futs is just something to watch for potential resistance cos if the big move starts today turns out to be UP it will probably go through it as if it wasn't there .... kind of like the famous Maradona goal .... in Mexico 86 ...i think :cheesy:
Or maybe I should have said like one of the Beckham's famous free kicks

We got a pullback off that obvious resistance and now could go through on the 4th attempt........ if so my big level is 1493ish on sep s&p but dow watchers might be watching 13500........?

Watch out cos the action today on Sep S&p is in shape of a megaphone which can be very unstable......... and 1484 hit is a potential TRIPLE TOP...

 

[Hook Shot]

Please Mr Dow don't fail me now...

Ideally we need just one more burst of bullish energy today and that would set things up nicely.... if it rolls over here I'll take it but it's not ideal

 

[firewalker99]

Ideally we need just one more burst of bullish energy today and that would set things up nicely.... if it rolls over here I'll take it but it's not ideal

should be okay
pullback to 13400 (fut) done now...

so you long again Kevin?

 

[counter_violent]

Quit talking longs.......the bears wont like it

 

[Atilla]

Atilla, darling .... time does not permit me to address each one of theponts you raise and it would bore the others any way (probably). I understand where you are coming from but I don't necessarily agree with your position.

I happen to believe that the economy is "managed" .... boom and busts don't just happen........ Sure there will be some unintended consequences but for the most part it can be managed relatively easily by those in control. One day they will have a rescue act that will really test them one day.... but I would imagine they have thought of that and have a plan which they believe will be successful... Given their track record the odds are that we will get through this. Greenspan .... yeh he did some interesting things but they had to be sanctioned .. by his supervisor

Ed Hyman... an eminent economist (one of your gang) appears very well infomed and his forecasting track record speaks for itself. Over the years you learn a lot about who really knows what's going on and who is just postulating..... You also learn about people who don't know how to lose money.... it's amazing. Some of them are actually quite famous... but you might not immediately think of them as hot shot investors. But many of them run the "show".

I have every respect for your education and intellect but we may have to agree to disagree on these points.

with grreat fondness
Hs

I have a problem disproving this theory which you wish to embrace. What will it take to show otherwise. If the economy is managed and the powers above claim it was what they intended all along who can say or prove otherwise. Economy does well - politicians claim the prize. Economy tanks - politicians tell us this is medicine you need it, just bend over and take it. :cheesy:

You get 10 economists into a room and they'll even disagree about assumptions before trying to hammer out their theories. It is a normative science, not a positive one like maths or physics.

I do concur with Mr Greenspans superiors pulling levers and reducing taxes that give you that warm feeling all over but such joys are momentary... When people are left homeless I'm sure they'll feel the chill soon enough.

In summary, I can only think you are referring to the command economy of the communists rather than the free economy of the capitalists. But even they only claimed to attempt or try to control the economy. Never owned up to doing so.

You can take the biscuit but make sure it doesn't crumble... :cheesy:

 

[ian]

Well that was a bit of a pull-back...

 

[Hook Shot]

And the winner is........

I have a problem disproving this theory which you wish to embrace. What will it take to show otherwise. If the economy is managed and the powers above claim it was what they intended all along who can say or prove otherwise. Economy does well - politicians claim the prize. Economy tanks - politicians tell us this is medicine you need it, just bend over and take it. :cheesy:

You get 10 economists into a room and they'll even disagree about assumptions before trying to hammer out their theories. It is a normative science, not a positive one like maths or physics.

I do concur with Mr Greenspans superiors pulling levers and reducing taxes that give you that warm feeling all over but such joys are momentary... When people are left homeless I'm sure they'll feel the chill soon enough.

In summary, I can only think you are referring to the command economy of the communists rather than the free economy of the capitalists. But even they only claimed to attempt or try to control the economy. Never owned up to doing so.

You can take the biscuit but make sure it doesn't crumble... :cheesy:

Cheers Atilla - great fun

 

[firewalker99]

Quit talking longs.......the bears wont like it

looks like they heard you
they're not letting go of this level so easily...

 

[Hook Shot]

Epic struggle.....

Ideally we need just one more burst of bullish energy today and that would set things up nicely.... if it rolls over here I'll take it but it's not ideal

Funny thing is whatever he does now he's dead - unless of course he goes sideways for 90mins

 

[firewalker99]

Funny thing is whatever he does now he's dead - unless of course he goes sideways for 90mins

looks like it's running out of steam on a Friday night

I'm off for some beers anyway
exited first half at 13430 (fut) earlier on and now my stop is at 13390 fut with a MOC ... so I'll see what happened later on

have a good one everybody

 

[Kevin21]

Indeed 13400 was a resistance level (as I also pointed out on the 27th itself see http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=354045&postcount=6154), which I why I scaled out a part of my position and moved stops up.

Actually overnight trading shows it very obvious... no need to go back that far.

But you never know what could happen next, and in this case it broke higher. Which is why I am happy with leaving open some of that long.

So you enter & exit at once (whole position)? (I'm not saying that my exit strategy is superior, far from...)

I was doing when i was trading by myself. I was buying 10-15contracts all at once and dumping them all at the same time too, but at the moment my mentor is teaching about scaling in and out and how to do it properly. At 400 i covered 3/4 and adjusted my stop.

On the pull back i had orders for 4 contracts at 410, 4 at 400 and 4 at 390. 410 and 400 orders got filled. Target was 450, but volume wasn't looking to healthy so i bailed out at 426, leaving a couple of runners which adjusted stops. so i had 4 contracts for +16pts and 4contacts for +26pts and them runners got stopped out at 400.

 

[Hook Shot]

Ed Hyman Article/Interview

HS mi ol china, I do hope you don't buy all this stuff. I really do. To recap, the two budget defecits are the excesses of Mr Greenspan response to the economic challenges facing the US economy.

To give the same medicine that led us to this obese beast would surely end up in some tragic cardiovascular arrest.

To claim it was calculated and intentionaly should go into one of the x-files episode.

As I write this I'm looking at the DOW go through 13400. Just goes to show I know nothing.

I'm now bullish on the DOW. Will I trade no not yet, wait for next week. Had my fill for this week.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aIEC12YR7MDc&refer=economy

Video is in related media links near top on right hand
side.. The Ed Hyman one

Might be worth considering the economist' s "report" also

http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9747967

The eventual outcome is somewhere in this stuff

 

[chump]

Here is the man himself ,not secondhand/thirdhand guessing...what should be obvious is he does not know himself what he will be doing never mind the extent of his actions...so all the talkingheads popping up are simply that , and'spitting in the wind' ..let's be honest it's nice to be noticed and even nicer when people think we have something useful to say and wish to write about it.However , the man with his hands on the wheel does not yet know what the future holds and what he will be doing about it so giving weight to other people's views is not something I personally would attempt to trade...I presume the calculated risk/stop would be when these people change their minds...wherever that might be..if someone has a way of actually calculating that I would be interested in listening.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2007/20070831/default.htm

by the way interesting that the economist report decides explicitly to spend more time discussing what in their words is only the second most likely outcome from the three they suggest ! I wouldn't pay them to polish my boots unless I was their editor trying to sell news

 

[Atilla]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aIEC12YR7MDc&refer=economy

Video is in related media links near top on right hand
side.. The Ed Hyman one

Might be worth considering the economist' s "report" also

http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9747967

The eventual outcome is somewhere in this stuff

I've seen the clips and Hyman is not saying anything major. He is double talking imo.

He says slow down but not a recession.
He mentions Financial Crises a lot. Say it will get worse. Suggest people move into the stock markets as Fed will manage the financial crises by reducing interest rates to 4 % in a measured way because they have now defeated inflation. He says he is bullish.
He says developing economies is bad news.

What is he really saying? - Fed will reduce rates to 4% so pile your money back into the stock market. Yeah right. You go first then dude I'll follow you next year.

Let me put this to the readers.

Interest rates always rise in increasing frequency towards the tops of the economic cycle. Hence, growth has peaked.

Interest rates always fall in a down turn in increasing frequency and desperation in a recession until the trough is reached.

This tells you we have reached the tops. So cut in rates = down turn in the cycle.

Typical monetarists totally exclude taxation or demand side management. I've mentioned this umpteen times. Dichotomy in US economy. Inflationary pressures with major slow down - Stagflation. The dispute is because economists sit on one camp or another. ie Economic slow down - or inflationary pressures. You not supposed to have them similtaneously... Or are you? If this is intentional it's fantastic management cause you couldn't engineer this if you tried to.

The twin defecits must be addressed. THEY HAVE GOT TO REDUCE INTEREST RATES TO STIMULATE BUSINESS AND INVESTMENT AND RAISE TAXES AT THE SAME TIME.

US has spent $600bn dollars on a war with no subtantial increase in output or productivity => Inflationary pressures.

The US has maintained low taxation and interest rates to fund their cheap borrowing to finance the war and Bush's tax breaks for oil giants and all other interested republican parties. So there are excess pockets of wealth and dimished pockets laden with debt.

Another $100bn is being requested to maintain war in Iraq. With high interest rates cost of maintaining budget defecits rise. Fall in dollar raises inflationary pressures.

This same old simple monetarist dribble about ok inflation is under control, housing market is suffering let's reduce rates is FAR TOO SIMPLISTIC. They can try and talk up the economy as much as they like.

I really don't care for the reputation of anyone. As in trading past performance is no indicator of future gains.

Unless the US economy tackles the 7%+ budget and BoP defecits, they can talk until the cows come home. It ain't happenin dudes. That's my message to Hyman and Ben.


One last comment. In a boom when interest rates rise at the early stages, it is intrepreted as - oh the growth must be good and strong for the Fed to control it and yes companies can handle it and we don't want inflation. Yes good move up.

Once expectations kicks in, dropping the rates will confirm the gravity of the situation. It will be intrepreted as - oh the turn must be bad and worse than expected for the Fed who has all information in advance of everyone else to reduce rates. Sell sell sell.

They can try and talk up the market as much as they like once expectations kicks in it's very difficult to turn peoples & business expenditure plans.

I go with the Economists 2nd option. Down turn coming plan for it.


Here is an extract from Bens speech.

Although this episode appears to have been triggered largely by heightened concerns about subprime mortgages, global financial losses have far exceeded even the most pessimistic projections of credit losses on those loans. In part, these wider losses likely reflect concerns that weakness in U.S. housing will restrain overall economic growth. But other factors are also at work. Investor uncertainty has increased significantly, as the difficulty of evaluating the risks of structured products that can be opaque or have complex payoffs has become more evident. Also, as in many episodes of financial stress, uncertainty about possible forced sales by leveraged participants and a higher cost of risk capital seem to have made investors hesitant to take advantage of possible buying opportunities. More generally, investors may have become less willing to assume risk. Some increase in the premiums that investors require to take risk is probably a healthy development on the whole, as these premiums have been exceptionally low for some time. However, in this episode, the shift in risk attitudes has interacted with heightened concerns about credit risks and uncertainty about how to evaluate those risks to create significant market stress. On the positive side of the ledger, we should recognize that past efforts to strengthen capital positions and the financial infrastructure place the global financial system in a relatively strong position to work through this process.

 

[Hook Shot]

Ask and it shall be given ....

Ideally we need just one more burst of bullish energy today and that would set things up nicely.... if it rolls over here I'll take it but it's not ideal

It tooks it's time ... but we got the one more surge into the final hour of 50pts and then the piece de resistance lol: ) .....in final few minutes it slumped by 85pts just before the close...

Well worth waiting for..........:cheesy:

 

[Hook Shot]

Market Wise ...

US seems okay not brilliant dow and spx down a bit on the week despite friday's rally.

Structurally Spx seems okay... having formed a double bottom in the 1430 zone forming a ledge way above the crisis lows (so far) of 1370. We can also see the potential for a huge move up since we have a pennant on the daily spx/s&p futs chart.

The worries I have are these
(1) We only made marginally higher highs than the previous week - where's the follow through ? In fact the weekly highs and lows on the Spx were almost identical. We seem to have a ~1480/1430 trading range at the mo...

(2) Just above us on spx we have a potential swampzone 1485-1490. Consequently I think I must be cautious if we remain below 1490 this week. Worse if we get into that area and fall down.

(3) Others have mentioned volume but I've not got stats at time of typing so can't comment other than that.

What Do I want ??

I really want the Spx to test that swampzone next week... to really see what this bounce is made of....

Finally, Spx made round trip of approx 47pts down and ~49pts up ... equivalent in my book to 470 :arrowd: and 490:arrowu:

Dow made roughly 350ish :arrowd: and tad under 400 :arrowu:

Just a thought....

 

[Hook Shot]

In the unlikely event that you're stuck for a trade ...

NYMEX is on a blazing streak..........sort of like the Dow a week ago..

Yep there maybe hurricanes due but rising oil and potential slowdown/recession don't mix ... mabye I'm getting my timescales mixed up but blazing streaks tend to be unsustainable.... We'll see

Near term - blazing streak
Longer term - less than $5 below the ALL TIME HIGHS

Ps Shorting Oil can be damaging to your wealth....

 

[ian]

I was doing when i was trading by myself. I was buying 10-15contracts all at once and dumping them all at the same time too, but at the moment my mentor is teaching about scaling in and out and how to do it properly. At 400 i covered 3/4 and adjusted my stop.

On the pull back i had orders for 4 contracts at 410, 4 at 400 and 4 at 390. 410 and 400 orders got filled. Target was 450, but volume wasn't looking to healthy so i bailed out at 426, leaving a couple of runners which adjusted stops. so i had 4 contracts for +16pts and 4contacts for +26pts and them runners got stopped out at 400.

Kev, I'm puzzled , you were making more than a few hundred points a day on some indicies a couple of weeks ago, now you have a mentor and your points are reduced?

 

[fibonelli]

NYMEX is on a blazing streak..........sort of like the Dow a week ago..

Yep there maybe hurricanes due but rising oil and potential slowdown/recession don't mix ... mabye I'm getting my timescales mixed up but blazing streaks tend to be unsustainable.... We'll see

Near term - blazing streak
Longer term - less than $5 below the ALL TIME HIGHS

Ps Shorting Oil can be damaging to your wealth....

Iran

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,295529,00.html