EOD Dow

[Pat494]

Just opening this new thread for tomorrow 2/10/2007. To be read in conjunction with Dow 2007 ( more intraday )

 

[Pat494]

My view of 2nd Oct 2007
Got buy signals from my swarm tech. And APS for the Dow ( which may take a day or two to kick in )
Estimated 67% chance of a rise today
General up-trend

 

[black bear]

SB charts (IG) Peep Peep

LTT, months up since Nov 05 (12sma months) @ + 1000 dislocation from average. Index on last months high 13946 sma average @ 45 degrees

MTT, week up July 06 wk 30 (52 sma) rsi set 5 @ 82, approaching overbought for reading,
STT day up, Swing chart / gann on top of 52 sma. Up since 18th sept breakout bar which took out last swing high.

1st Oct breakout bar (large range) least probable outcome is low will be taken out in next two bars, (same for all time frames) if it is I regard it as a sell signal, Longs should cover. above dislocation is high but can remain so for some time, overbought reading is of no value because it is just reporting what your eye can see and its move to overbought is near vertical. pm me for long winded explanation

IMO

Pull back overdue 3-5 days, if pulback does not penatrate prevous range by much (price rejection at that level , good cont of trend signal on 1st strong up day.

 

[toro168]

harmani (pregnant) candle......will she drop ?

 

[Pat494]

My view of 3rd Oct 2007
Got buy signals from my swarm tech. And APS for the Dow ( which may take a day or two to kick in )
Estimated good chance of a rise today
General up-trend

hi Devel
We seem to agree on the general trend.Just a minor correction for yesterday prob.( buy the dip ?)

hi toro
imho the candlesticks that I find are fairly reliable are the engulfing ones.

 

[black bear]

My view of 3rd Oct 2007
Got buy signals from my swarm tech. And APS for the Dow ( which may take a day or two to kick in )
Estimated good chance of a rise today
General up-trend

hi Devel
We seem to agree on the general trend.Just a minor correction for yesterday prob.( buy the dip ?)

hi toro
imho the candlesticks that I find are fairly reliable are the engulfing ones.

I think thats my plan, I have one bullet left today after fading top of hour range/ pivot and taking a slap on strengh of Dow being on yesterdays Low and looking wobbly

judging by Ftse we might get good Long move from Dow so they can get impressive looking candle for the week again dont no if it will engulf anything though

 

[black bear]

End of day , Dow makes retreat no flap or really fast price action, gave up hours open range and retreated to last weeks high to join Ftse.

Dow strong IMO, Lurker noted yesterday Ftse failing to mark Dow up moves, IF Dow can hold last weeks high or just test it with quick test under to previous weeks high keeping some order in retreat Could be in for new highs for Crimbo

FTSE will Fly IMO , one big move, Volumes have been pickin up on the up days on Ftse

I"ll eat these words later when another bank goes belly up

Trading account confirms change of trend

Trade Ftse mornings only/ watch Dow, margin on account -4 pts (full) enter in 1/3 rds, 1st time since august 17th any drawdown to account,
Have been trading with heavy short bias since sub prime mess. Trading moved back to neutral / Bull if last week Highs hold.

 

[Pat494]

Well ! Got it right royally wrong so far ( better not copy mine too much with REAL money imho )
Choppy. I got a short signal for the S&P and Nikkei today.
I actually made a few points on the bounce yesterday and took it with a trailing stop.
Other indicators still pointing up though for Dow.
Very confusing.

 

[black bear]

Well ! Got it right royally wrong so far ( better not copy mine too much with REAL money imho )
Choppy. I got a short signal for the S&P and Nikkei today.
I actually made a few points on the bounce yesterday and took it with a trailing stop.
Other indicators still pointing up though for Dow.
Very confusing.

I am not so sure, that retreat was very orderly, looked like normal market conditions are back to me , Longs back on the menu for me.

Don"t do predictions and certainly don"t trade em well (see ftse posts )

Dow to hold / pull back into last weeks range less than 80 pts then away :arrowu:

 

[black bear]

End of day report

Did I miss something while I was sulking regarding my little platform trouble (see ftse thread) as it moved

see last posts

Tomorrow"s prediction Flap test under week low to get everyone short, big bar take out all the stops, back down for NO its a washout bar , oh then away :arrowu:

its not that bad look theres a bit of positive news over there

 

[Pat494]

Perhaps I should have entitled this thread - EOD Indexes as I am doing all the "Magnificent 7".
Anyway
Dax - flattish
CAC - down
FTSE - down
S&P - flattish
Dow - uppish
Nikkei - flat
Nasdaq - flattish

Hope your connection prob is solved Dev

 

[black bear]

Perhaps I should have entitled this thread - EOD Indexes as I am doing all the "Magnificent 7".
Anyway
Dax - flattish
CAC - down
FTSE - down
S&P - flattish
Dow - uppish
Nikkei - flat
Nasdaq - flattish

Hope your connection prob is solved Dev

Thanks mate , ye it came back up pretty quick, yesterdays post was for effect (drama queen ) you no the drill , it was me own fault anyway scalped the move to square margin on account, charts off / closed order tickets market moved on by 12 pts , which is a big spead in my book Enter at the front end with who knows what bias in play . Had to watch it go without me

It was double me own fault because I have access to next doors router key and didna have me lap top on

Back to swing trading, Have been known to trade the Dow using this method and may be dipping my toe back in the water before to long.

Just noticed I have given a trade signal, Moved account back to Neutral mmm"m , Im a BEAR by nature cant help myself, High Probability of Large Fall in all the above Indexs , It"ll take me 2 weeks to adjust my stance back to BEAR by which time it will be Neutral again

 

[black bear]

Update

Perhaps I should have entitled this thread - EOD Indexes as I am doing all the "Magnificent 7".
Anyway
Dax - flattish
CAC - down
FTSE - down
S&P - flattish
Dow - uppish
Nikkei - flat
Nasdaq - flattish


I"ll update this one Pat, by monday it"ll be chip paper anyway



All Trends :arrowu: , which probably means SELL,

Bollinger bands / Bars only.

Month ~ e"rrr was there any problems since Sept 2006 BULL :arrowu:
Week ~Breakout confirmed next stop Uranus 20ma @ 13524
Day ~ BULL / double Top with 1st Oct

Candle Engulfing pattern in Days, Looks very pretty just like in the text book sat perfect on last weeks High. I think thats a continuation pattern but I am prepared to be corrected on that one.

Would remind everybody that the trend never looks clearer than just before it changes oh boy Lurker is going to Love me

We had no complaints Pat, we were"nt dished out of sight, I got to peep peep peep without bugging anybody on main board, well possibly with the exception of Lurker, :|

Hey I was just concerned, Thought for a minute you had blown up and were about to take revenge on the market for not moving as per instructions

just for you because I no you enjoyed the last post Lurker


THE MARKET CAN REMAIN IRRATIONAL LONGER THAN YOU CAN REMAIN SOLVENT

 

[black bear]

End of day report,

Dow day trade thread provides quote of the day

A cheeky treble top to temp all the shorts.

Detailed report given by myself due to Pat being lost overboard at the time of the news announcement.

Unsure at this time what happened to him :?:

Very bullish , 16000 next stop no overhead Resistance , shorts in for rough ride unless Dow tanks

 

[Pat494]

I agree with you dev markets looking very bouyant especially the Dax. Thx for keeping this thread afloat - I was about to throw in the towel

 

[black bear]

I agree with you dev markets looking very bouyant especially the Dax. Thx for keeping this thread afloat - I was about to throw in the towel

No problem Pat, good wheeeze, keeps me from over trading

Quote of the day, arrr who"s the victim today sorry Pat, you can have a go tomorrow

Could be bottoming now imho
__________________
Trading S&P daily fut et al ( probably wrongly ) @ 3:26

only just won post above and runner up, sorry FW 99

looks like bit too optimistic entry there
still holding though
__________________
If you know nothing of the darkness, how would you describe the light?

right the report, don"t no, was out most of day but looks like our bullish forecast went down in flames,

So trader of the day goes to Lurker , who as remained quiet all day today. so one may conclude he"s watching open PL and wondering where to take profits on ~

Volume gone. Sell 14228. hope you stayed with it, or if not re-entered and put a back on your posts.

Am FTSE week to start followed by bounce at 10:30 when men in black suits get up and buy futures till 1pm pushing index above last weeks high. after 1pm index on its own.

Board selection for tomorrow ~ Long and Short boards required with a good sticky wax


Stop the Press last 15 min bar looks week / anything could happen .........

 

[Pat494]

Got a long signal for the CAC

 

[black bear]

Pat you have neglected your thread again, as he been washed ooverboard again or what

EOD, TA no news bias becaus can"t be bothered reading it , having rest.

well been a bit busy (connection and looking into broker) so not posted, no funnies tonight very

Lurker, all best hope you turn corner quick mate.

Dow making classic pull back, no flap yet, stop reading the news lads.

Got the chart up 4r down to 15 min, long trend line breach 4 hrs going back to 16/08/07

index fighting to hold last weeks low, as I post just got back inside. if closes above 877 cash , could see a bounce tomorrow, eyes on futures in the morning. That"s 10:30 sharp Hookshot MEN IN BLACK DAY

State the obvious, if last weeks low goes could be anything 52 sma 13629 buy bar possible (washout bar)

 

[Pat494]

Thx for the support Dev but I think perhaps its best I go back to the drawing board to improve, before venturing forth too publicly
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