another conspiracy doing the rounds...apologies if it's too long,cannot paste a direct link................................
Street Abuzz With 'Bin Laden' Options Trades
Aug 30, 2007 12:41:00 PM
As if the mortgage-market meltdown isn't enough to spook investors, some market players are worrying about unusual options bets that some observers have dubbed 'Bin Laden Trades.' The blogosphere and options trading desks have been rife with speculation about these trades, which are unusually large bets that the market will make a huge move in the next month. Some entity, or entities, has taken a large position on extremely deep in the money S&P 500 options, both puts and calls, that won't pay off unless the market undergoes an extremely large price move between now and the options' expiration on Sept. 21.
The positions in question have left option industry experts perplexed to come up with a rational explanation for the trades, which are far from the best or most efficient way to profit from what would be outlier events. Those worrying about the worst-case scenario are recalling that large put contracts were placed on airline stocks, notably American, a unit of AMR and United Airlines, in the weeks leading up to the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks.
The first area of focus is that open interest on September 700 S&P puts is 116,000 contracts, an unusually high number for such a low-probability trade. A put is a defensive bet that gives the holder the right to sell a security at a specified price, in this case more than 50% below the S&P 500's current level of 1463 as of Wednesday's close. For comparison's sake, according to the Option Clearing Corp., the open interest in the July 700 strike some three weeks prior to expiration on July 20 was 790 calls and 7,300 puts, and the August 700 strike showed 1,250 calls and 14,800 puts prior to Aug. 17 expiration.
And the volume completely outstrips anything seen last September, when the S&P was around 1300, some 20% below current levels. In September 2006, the 700 strike had 600 calls and 7,500 puts, and no strike below 1000 had open interest surpassing 42,000 contracts, and that was the 900 puts. The bulk of the September SPX trades in question have been put on since June 1.
Similar bets have also been placed on the DJ Eurostoxx 50 index, which won't pay off unless the index tumbles nearly 25% to 2800, or below, by expiration on the third Friday of September.
The trades have been noted in various online forums, where the worst case scenario is often the first conclusion: 'Only an act of terrorism akin to 9-11 -- within the next four weeks -- could make these options valuable,' writes one poster in the TickerForum chat room.
Others, such as the 'Just Wondrin What Happened' blog, have speculated that 'China, reeling over losing $10 billion in bad loans to the sub-prime mortgage collapse presently taking place, is going to dump U.S. currency and tank all of Capitalism with a Communist financial revolution.
' It's tempting to dismiss such chatter, especially about China since the People's Republic is widely viewed as prepping for its 'coming out party' at the Summer 2008 Beijing Olympics. Furthermore, the TickerForum posters focused on the 65,000 contracts open on SPX 700 calls, ostensibly bullish bets that give the holder the right to buy the index at that level.
Given the fact that these calls are some 700 points in-the-money, and therefore have a delta of 1.0 -- meaning the options price moves dollar-for-dollar with the underlying index -- 'the only advantage to owning them is it would be a more efficient and slightly less capital-intensive way to gain one-to-one exposure' to the S&P 500, Randy Frederick, director of derivatives at Charles Schwab, writes in an email exchange.
Frederick notes the Spyder Trust (SPY) and other index and exchange-traded products provide a much more liquid, efficient and higher-leveraged way to establish a bearish position quickly. Plus, it's a lot easier to 'hide' a big trade in the Spyders than the SPX options, which are only traded on the Chicago Board of Option Exchange and will be seen and facilitated by a tight-knit group of market makers.
Because there are about half the number of open contracts on S&P 700 calls vs. puts, it's possible these trades are part of a large strangle. There is also open interest of 61,741 on the September 1700 puts. 'Since this is only 11 contracts different from the 700 calls, it is possible that these two positions are making up a very large strangle, which could be either a breakout or neutral strategy depending upon whether or not it is a short strangle or a long strangle,' writes Frederick. 'If this is a short position, it may be anticipating the market will drop if the Fed does not cut rates as many expect' at its Sept. 18 policy meeting.
But such a strangle trade, with each leg being so deep in the money, would require a nearly 50% price move, up or down, to turn a profit. Frederick said the position leaves him more confused than scared, although he wouldn't dismiss the frightening conclusion bloggers have come to. 'It is also interesting that the anniversary of 9/11 occurs between now and the expiration of these options,' he writes. 'Perhaps there is speculation that another attack is in the works.'
A more rational, or at least less conspiratorial, theory is offered by Brian Overby, director of education at TradeKing, a discount broker that caters to sophisticated option traders. Overby notes that the September 1700 strike has open interest of 73,745 calls and 61,741 put options. 'This could be someone trying to create a box spread, which is a position composed of a long call and short put at one strike, and a short call and long put at a different strike. The position is largely immune to changes in the price of the underlying stock, and in most cases, is a simple interest rate trade.'
The box spread is premised on the fact that at expiration the value of the position must be equal to the width between the strikes of the option that are bought and sold; in this case 1,000 points, as their values all offset. The only real way to make money is to be able to buy or sell the box spread above or below the fair value.
Overby notes that given that the price spread between the bid and offer for each of the four legs could be as wide as $3 to $5, it would be nearly impossible to establish the box spread at a price that locks in a profit. So there are a few explanations for this very unusual configuration of open interest in the S&P 500 Index's September options and none seem to meet the criteria of a rational trade or position with even a remote possibility of profitability.
Those concerned about the similarities to those options trades on the airlines before the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks could extract some comfort from this excerpt from the 9/11 Commission Report: 'Exhaustive investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission, FBI, and other agencies have uncovered no evidence that anyone with advance knowledge of the attacks profited through securities transactions,' according to the Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States.
But as current chatter about the deep-in-the-money SPX trades reveals, such declarations have done little to quell traders' concerns that something wicked this way comes, and that somebody is trying to profit from it.
Steven Smith writes regularly for TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He was a seatholding member of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) from May 1989 to August 1995. During that six-year period, he traded multiple markets for his own personal account and acted as an executing broker for third-party accounts.
