Dow 2007

[bottomleyp]

Hi FW

Where do you estimate the overhead resistance is on the Daily DOW Cash ?

 

[brutusdog]

Hi FW

Where do you estimate the overhead resistance is on the Daily DOW Cash ?

should be a fair bit @ 13339 ish.imho.

 

[bottomleyp]

Thanks Brutus

As I am presently shorting DOW, on a hunch, best have my stop @ 13350 then.

 

[firewalker99]

Hi FW

Where do you estimate the overhead resistance is on the Daily DOW Cash ?

13360-13380 (futures price)
not that I would short there, but I would definitely exit a piece of my position
how much... depends on how much reaction there is to that level... if it flies straight through I'll be happy that I left some open

Edit: I just saw brutus' post and I assume his price is cash then I think it's about the same level we had in mind with mine a bit lower

 

[firewalker99]

Thanks Brutus

As I am presently shorting DOW, on a hunch, best have my stop @ 13350 then.

If you need to think about where to place your stop, AFTER you've entered a trade...
you are taking a risky path that's for sure

also "on a hunch"... that almost guarantees you a loss

sorry for being a pain in the a**

 

[firewalker99]

NOW (20:09 my time)

bottomleyp, if you are still paying attention

You can see by the rise in volume on this particular bar or candle on a 5-min or lower timeframe, that there are definitely some sellers around that level...
This doesn't necessarily mean price will reverse there. It might just consolidate before breaking higher. Or pause before reversing. Or just fly higher on the next bar. It's all a matter of knowing what to do in each scenario.

If situation A -> I do action X
If situation B -> I do action Y
...

 

[catracho]

Hi FW

Where do you estimate the overhead resistance is on the Daily DOW Cash ?

chart attached..hope it helps

 

[lurkerlurker]

Your eagerness to post seems to reflect your eagerness to put on a trade.
Which isn't really a good thing. Unless you want to be a full fledged scalper. And even in that case...

Sorry. I wondered what you were meaning by that, scrolled up, and was rather embarrassed to note that I seemed to be having a nice little dialogue with myself! Much like nkruger on the Quotes thread the other night, but I digress.....

Low volume? It's Friday... plus we've had the figures. Nothing important coming up anymore. Besides, nothing shocking ever happens on a Friday (I should say rarely), so most likely this will just drift sideways or higher until we hit overhead resistance or have attained the normal daily range...

Yes, well, we've had a busy enough market in the last few weeks. Needless to say I miss the volatility and easy pips, but to be quite frank I'd be happy with a system which gave me 20 pips per day at £1pp and only traded once per day for the time being.

Regarding my eagerness to trade; I've noticed that my emotions are interfering and after a few winning weeks (where profits were due mostly to strict discipline regarding entries and exits, combined with being a perma-bear) I have lost any edge I had. I am looking to trade less frequently now, and I will be paper trading a few systems over the next few weeks. I intend to post some in my journal also. For YM traders, the CBOT offers this rather nifty education section, which includes articles and seminars by locals and electronic day traders. There are even some canned systems in there too.

When I return to normal trading, I will have a proper plan. I do not intend making any more impulse trades meanwhile. I thought I could trust myself to play a simple resistance breakout on a day with a clearly defined uptrend, but I messed up the execution. Back to basics. Something which I am liking at the moment (and it isn't too dissimilar to the system you showed me FW) is an opening gap system which produces 1 YM trade per each day where a gap exists.

As ever, I will post my developments (or regressions) here. Thanks again. It appears that since I will not be doing any live trades next week, today was my last trading day in August. I am pleased to note that I ended the week and month substantially up, and I look forward to resuming trading some time in September. (unfortunately, I lost 13 pips today in three trades, but that is just the spread, so I didn't have to pay extra for my blunders - for all my discipline lapses recently, they have been financially cheap, if not psychologically)

Atilla, if you are lurking around - I tried to open up the investors chronicle trading competition account, but it appears the offer is now withdrawn. Sorry!

Have a good weekend all!

 

[bottomleyp]

Thanks FW

Presently I am only using the IG PureDeal Interface and it has a volume indicator checkbox, which I have checked,
but it is does not display this information on the screen.
May be it is finger trouble, I don't know.
Presently I use the 20, 50 and 100 MA, on 1 and 3 minute timeframes,
MACD and small bits of information from you guys on the belletin board
in my trading decisions. I am learning all the time.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Very annoyed at myself. I see that long I covered at +1 on the breakout (which I called here as valid) has never ever retested the entry, and has since gone up 60 points. There was a clear upward trend, and I thought I could trust myself to buy a volume confirmed breakout above support. I was wrong. This makes it even more depressing to have lost pips.

(I've stopped trading, but I am still watching the order book as I do most minutes when the cash market is open - it is important to hone my order flow skills)

 

[Atilla]

Hi guys,

Just catching up now. Had a good day on gold and cable. Long on both. Gold closed pos nice run from 660. Did say. I get more joy out of trading gold than any other instrument. I've gone off it and only recently started looking at it again. I think the geopolitics drives my interest.

Anyhow cable has been rising too. Good to hear Mr Greenspan is ok with rate cuts. I think yes rate cuts for now to stabilise markets and some tax increases please but hey what do I know.

I agree fully with Catracho and still bearish on the DOW unless it convincingly break above 13350 regions.

Hi LL, yes the competition is over. It did get me to open an account with them which I now use. They do have a demo account available so might be worth trying that.

I've had a good week at work and in the markets and really looking for a well earnt week of rest. I just hope the sunshines out.

 

[lurkerlurker]

We're touching the downtrendline now - a short opportunity perhaps? Retest of lows?

 

[lurkerlurker]

Sold 75 futs. 34 cash.

Out for +10 (paper). Downtrendline, and the order book. Price is getting supported though.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Looks like the bull market is back. +140 from yesterdays settle. 13400 broken.

 

[Atilla]

Looks like the bull market is back. +140 from yesterdays settle. 13400 broken.

Typical isn't it. All this rate cut talk is spurring the markets on again.

Some people thinkg the markets can will and should only rise.

This hype has to be reigned in but in a controlled way.

If the Fed doesn't get it's act together with the budget defecits next time round it will be much worse.

I was thinking about what HS said recently about 87 and 9/11 and have neither effected the markets and they rose higher within a short period.

I think this time round it can be even more serious than 1929. I really do. Because this effects not just US but the globe the dollar standard and housing markets in all over the World. Also the Asian markets too which have risen tremendously.

So let it rise. Beyond 14000+ for all I care. Sooner or later it's going to give way and in a massive way.

We've had the 10% so lets see if the bounce breaches 61% retracement.

Call me Mr doom and gloom but I do hope the sunshines this weekend...

Have a great weekend y'all now and be good. :cheesy:

 

[lurkerlurker]

Well, if we get another stupid bull run I'm happy to buy until there are signs of another top. We can always sell to a greater fool on the way up, and will probably be amongst the first sellers again once it hits the fan.

August has been a good month!

I hope everyone who predicted 7 of the last 2 bear markets recovered their losses too! Some of you may recall that when I posted my first thread here I lost quite a bit calling a top in the Dow - I realise now that was a mistake, but all has been rectified.

Going to work on the YM opening gap system over the weekend, and perhaps post backtesting results by Sunday evening (although I do have other stuff to do).

Have a good weekend all!

 

[fibonelli]

Price closes just at the top of the descending upper trend channel. Marked in orange.

Oh, what a surprise, not!

Chart is clearer if you double click.

It will be very interesting to see what happens first day of trading next week.

 

[Pat494]

Call me Mr doom and gloom but I do hope the sunshines this weekend...

Have a great weekend y'all now and be good. :cheesy:

Not if I can help it ! LOL

PS All that oil money has somewhere to go now !

 

[Hook Shot]

Total Confusion

I can say this ftse is looking pretty okay with a "gentle" pullback and could quite easily rebound strongly ...... I'm looking at a 10d chart......

Still confused .......... apart from the obvious set ups mentioned earlier

EDIT: Markets are waiting for something and I don't think it's the eco data

Always learning something new in this game........
I knew this streak of higher highs and lows was getting long in the tooth (now 6 days old). However, I also did not see much weakness in the us indices to speak of... therefore should have done nothing (according to my style) and moved stops on my remaining long position.......

So what did I do ? ......... I went short and created a needless running loss until I covered on a break of 300. I have seen the enemy.... as someone said recently....

Day counting when you see these kind of "streaks" is still valid (imho).... but I fell down on the risk manangement side.. I knew the risk pricewise was a vertical move but ignored it...... thought I was superhuman given the run of luck/success I'd had the last few weeks... But now I realise I'm "only" human...:cheesy:

Happy Trading
Hs

EDIT: There's going to be a shed load of money made over the next 2/3wks don't be like me. Make sure your head's clear and you're ready to go......

 

[mroalan]

could you please tell me what the ER2 is. t.i.a. albert.