Dow 2007

0.5 cut in rate won't be enough to kill any carry trades....they will have to do much better than that....too many vested interests...oh and all these moves on yens and index's are by the nature of uncertainty....overdone...it always pans out that way....if there was any real panic...you can bet the farm that prices would'nt have rebounded this far

Dow to make new highs before year end......:cheesy:

cv
 
0.5 cut in rate won't be enough to kill any carry trades....they will have to do much better than that....too many vested interests...oh and all these moves on yens and index's are by the nature of uncertainty....overdone...it always pans out that way....if there was any real panic...you can bet the farm that prices would'nt have rebounded this far

Dow to make new highs before year end......:cheesy:

cv

dunno if overdone or not (honest, dont care), i agree with the rate part, and particularly agree with the uncertainty part.

the uncertainty......they also have very convex utility curves :cheesy:


edit: actually, if the whole sub-prime scare starts kicking in and contaminates the real economy, there is a higher probability of massive bailouts of mortgage providers than interest rate reductions.....and the effect that has on the public deficit.....then again, it is just an opinion.
 
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0.5 cut in rate won't be enough to kill any carry trades....they will have to do much better than that....too many vested interests...oh and all these moves on yens and index's are by the nature of uncertainty....overdone...it always pans out that way....if there was any real panic...you can bet the farm that prices would'nt have rebounded this far

Dow to make new highs before year end......:cheesy:

cv

I believe the DOW may make higher highs providing interest rates are cut.

However, those highs will be manipulated and flaky to say the least.

A little like Norman Lamont and UK £ experience against the EMS, you can't buck the market as much as you try. £7bn reserve loss later interest rates still went up to 15% and the pound eventually floated down to 2.20DMs.

All because the Deutch Bank felt the pound was over valued at 2.95DMs which was the truth.

See history repeating it self.

Who know what the true valuation of the dollar or US industries?
 
dunno if overdone or not (honest, dont care), i agree with the rate part, and particularly agree with the uncertainty part.

the uncertainty......they also have very convex utility curves :cheesy:


edit: actually, if the whole sub-prime scare starts kicking in and contaminates the real economy, there is a higher probability of massive bailouts of mortgage providers than interest rate reductions.....and the effect that has on the public deficit.....then again, it is just an opinion.

So let me get this straight....lending on assets...sub-prime or no sub-prime...who's property is it if anyone defaults.....who loses...who wins...is unemployment rising.....are people really feeling any monetary squeeze...how can there be a squeeze if fed is now cutting rate...will this all simply not be an in transference of wealth...same as it's always been....are there enough components in place to create a true depression...

a lot of this is said tongue in cheek :cheesy:
 
So let me get this straight....lending on assets...sub-prime or no sub-prime...who's property is it if anyone defaults.....who loses...who wins...is unemployment rising.....are people really feeling any monetary squeeze...how can there be a squeeze if fed is now cutting rate...will this all simply not be an in transference of wealth...same as it's always been....are there enough components in place to create a true depression...

a lot of this is said tongue in cheek :cheesy:

kind of a policymakers view on what is coming, so bear with it. it is a bit of game theory

1) crisis contained to a financial scare: the policy maker signals lowering rates to alleviate a crisis (that is financial, not economical) typically means the market will have a run at me until i give in, lower rates, and the party continues. result: investors are bailed out.

2) crisis spills over to economy: similar to the Savings and Loans issue in the 80s. need to bail out the sector. bail out the sector typically means also bailing out households or the bailout wont work and the economy is hit. result: higher federal deficit, bailed out consumers. investors typically take some pain.

IMHO those are the options. the market smells 2 things: blood and will go for blood until the policy maker gives a bit of chocolate to ease the thirst of blood. :cheesy:

edit: translation: short and short till they lower rates
 
Bearish on this market myself. Firewalker, you are quite right about your double top / PDH short - I wasn't watching the market today, I took some advice and took the day off, but I will be watching with no small amount of interest tomorrow.
 
Firewalkers volume analysis, short entry

A very good trade today! Almost all of the range in a single trade into the close, on a double top, key resistance level, coinciding perfectly with your system and confirmed by volume.

I'm trying not to let this sound like another cry of "tell me what to do", but the volume thing on that trade puzzles me just slightly. You make reference to volume confirming the trade, but that is only obvious to me on the one minute. There is a gravestone doji bar on the 1m with 1300 odd cards. This make it obvious that there is a lot of selling here, and would confirm the signal. (such volume motivated by buying pressure would have led to higher highs). However, I have been told to avoid one minute charts, and what I have just described isn't clear on the 5 minute.

Could you explain this a little more?

Also, if you check the daily volume, you can see that each day trending higher has less volume than the previous day, so we could consider that traders are becoming less willing to support these levels. Further, on intraday charts, the larger volume precedes price declines - is power going back to the bears?

Lets see what the FOMC meeting minutes say, and what the Fed Chairman says on Friday.
 

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I'm trying not to let this sound like another cry of "tell me what to do", but the volume thing on that trade puzzles me just slightly. You make reference to volume confirming the trade, but that is only obvious to me on the one minute. There is a gravestone doji bar on the 1m with 1300 odd cards. This make it obvious that there is a lot of selling here, and would confirm the signal. (such volume motivated by buying pressure would have led to higher highs). However, I have been told to avoid one minute charts, and what I have just described isn't clear on the 5 minute.

Could you explain this a little more?

You don't necessarily need to analyze volume on a single bar. You've already pointed out on the chart the gravestone doji on a 1-minute chart which is fine. But you're right the smaller the timeframe, the less reliable the signals. However, you can always wait on the next bar for confirmation of an entry...

On the 5-min chart notice at (1) after which price falls. The second time (2) price rises into that territory volume is high again, but less than the previous time. Again price fails to breach the high of that first candle (and "incidentally" that's about the level from the PDH), so that's pretty much a green light for a short.

Unfortunately there wasn't much time left till to the close and we dropped "only" 60 points, but as we speak we are already down 100...

Also, if you check the daily volume, you can see that each day trending higher has less volume than the previous day, so we could consider that traders are becoming less willing to support these levels.

Yes, good observation.
 

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0.5 cut in rate won't be enough to kill any carry trades....they will have to do much better than that....too many vested interests...oh and all these moves on yens and index's are by the nature of uncertainty....overdone...it always pans out that way....if there was any real panic...you can bet the farm that prices would'nt have rebounded this far

Dow to make new highs before year end......:cheesy:

cv

It doesn't happen very often I disagree with you cv, but in this case I guess we have contrary opinions. We'll know by the end of year who was right :)

You posted some charts recently http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=351290&postcount=5764
saying that "the price shape at the top is not correct." However I think we did have something as an exhaustion blow-off phase, definitely with a much steeper angle than before. I admit it might not be as obvious as the previous one, but all other markets support my views that we've had a solid period of distribution now.

I've attached charts of YM, NQ, ER2 and ES.
 

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I see the Fed is doing more repos, and the Dow is hitting off the low of day. Global Diversified Fund at Goldman is suspending redemptions (reuters). It couldn't roll over its commercial paper positions.
 
well, I aint going to make the mistake I made yesterday of taking a position before the news. I was long, it took several hours to get back to my entry level, good job my stop was miles away.
 
Hi FW,
I rather hesitate to offer advice to someone who has proved his credentials, but I have given your exit problem ( as mentioned by you often )a bit of thought.
Do you use a target strategy ? Some like fixed targets e.g. 20 points for instance on the Dow. I think that this may be too inflexible for someone who is watching the RT data. Maybe have a mental target in your mind but move a trailing stop up after it, to lock in profits. That only leaves the question of how big should the trailing stop be ? And that is up to your judgement. As with other aspects this should improve after a few duff tries.
 
Finally .....

I think the next big move will be down after an 800pt rally at current prices (pre-mkt).
Pullback often retrace 25% of the move hence my 150-200pts decline

Timing Tool is the one though since we don't often get blazing streaks like 5ub in a row as is likely .... it does happen obviously but history teaches us it often leads to pbk.

My simple theory is the streak is unsustainable.. and we must expect a daily low to be taken out shortly ... today is unlikely (but possible ) but Friday is the first real candidate ?

Dow went 7 up bars (higher highs and lows) into Monday eased late day..
Tuesday ... spilled it's guts giving a 200pt+ move off the high on Monday.

This move of 7 consecutive up bars is a rare bird ........ and it produced the desired result.... after a bit of waiting -3 trading days :cheesy:
 
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Hi FW,
I rather hesitate to offer advice to someone who has proved his credentials, but I have given your exit problem ( as mentioned by you often )a bit of thought.
Do you use a target strategy ? Some like fixed targets e.g. 20 points for instance on the Dow. I think that this may be too inflexible for someone who is watching the RT data. Maybe have a mental target in your mind but move a trailing stop up after it, to lock in profits. That only leaves the question of how big should the trailing stop be ? And that is up to your judgement. As with other aspects this should improve after a few duff tries.

No reason to hesitate Pat, every piece of advice/suggestion is certainly appreciated :)

My target strategy is basically as follows (as illustrated by the live posts I did before)
-> scale out first half at a fixed dynamic (-> based on the current volatility) target
-> move stop to breakeven and manage trade from then onwards

Problem is that a lot of my trades return to BE before continuining in the right direction (and a lot further). In other cases it protects me from losing out on a trade that only had limited potential. It's difficult in finding the right equilibrium.

Barjon adviced me to use a trailing stop after my first target is hit. Which is basically what I am looking into, although it's still not quite to my satisfaction.

You make a good point there, "how big should the trailing stop be", it's difficult to gauge. Again it should be dynamic according to the volatility.

Most traders would probably be happy with being profitable, but I am still putting in a lot of effort in terms of reward if you know what I mean. If I left some of my entries open till EOD without moving my stop I could have made more points on a handful of trades than I did over a whole month doing about 50 trades :|.

Perhaps I am trying too hard on getting that "home run", for example trying to catch a complete trending day. Thanks for thinking out loud here with me Pat.
 
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right i've got a question...


i've finally got myself esignal and i want to trade my usual e-mini's etc. I've gone to get YM sept contracts up, but when i search for YM i get YM Q7P1215 and YM Q7P1210 - some crazy stuff.... Can anyone shed any light?
 
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