Dow 2007

[Kevin21]

lurker, you know why you lost today, so i dunno what you want people to tell you. Sometimes you stick to the rules and the trade doesn't come off and you get stopped out. Fair enough, thats the way the cookie crumbles, move onto the next one. However that wasn't the case. I'd say take at least a week off to stick your head in the sand to think about stuff. I've done it many times, better than blowing money when you haven't got your mojo on...

Trading is similar to birds in my humble young and arrogant opinion. No two birds are the same. You get your notch on your bed post and then you're on your way. If it doesn't work out, well there's always another one around the corner. Every now and then you meet a bird thats pretty sound, so you stick with em for a bit longer. As soon as the milk begins to sour, then you move onto the next....

All the problems in a guys life come down to two things... money and women. So obviously they have similar traits

Don't get me wrong, i love women, just as much as i love money :cheesy:

 

[jacinto]

lurker, you know why you lost today, so i dunno what you want people to tell you. Sometimes you stick to the rules and the trade doesn't come off and you get stopped out. Fair enough, thats the way the cookie crumbles, move onto the next one. However that wasn't the case. I'd say take at least a week off to stick your head in the sand to think about stuff. I've done it many times, better than blowing money when you haven't got your mojo on...

Trading is similar to birds in my humble young and arrogant opinion. No two birds are the same. You get your notch on your bed post and then you're on your way. If it doesn't work out, well there's always another one around the corner. Every now and then you meet a bird thats pretty sound, so you stick with em for a bit longer. As soon as the milk begins to sour, then you move onto the next....

All the problems in a guys life come down to two things... money and women. So obviously they have similar traits

Don't get me wrong, i love women, just as much as i love money :cheesy:

i am impressed by the deepness of your thoughts :cheesy:

having said that, excellent basic instinct kind of thinking tends to get it right most of the time ...........i got to say i agree with you

 

[Kevin21]

Another one i sent in reply to one of lurkers about jumping about all the time is as follows...

The porsche 911... I would never own one, because as you know i'm a ferrari man, but my respect for the porsche is up there with the best of them. The 911 is still one of the best cars every made. The problem tho with the 911 is the engine is right in the back over the rear wheels, so the weight of the car isn't evenly distributed. As a results this messed up the handeling of the car and back in the day, made it a lethal animal to try and drive. In America they nicked named it the 9-1-1 as in the emergency line number, because most people who had one ended up smashing it to bits because of the handeling.

The car went against all engineering logic, but them stuborn German designers and engineers stuck with their plan of making a rear engine sports car and just kept on attacking the plan head on without getting distracted from their ultimate goal....

Like i said, today the 911 is one of the best cars you'll ever drive, and it still goes against the laws of motor engineering. Just shows you that if you decided what style works best for you and you're determined to make it work then you can. Think about it...

 

[jacinto]

I would have thought you are more like a gorilla than a monkey me amigo... Assuming that was a true picture of you before.

I do like your new avatar too. You've gone from a big hairy dude to a little less hairy dude.:cheesy:

chuckle chuckle you cheeky old git. talk about hairy stuff you !

thought minime would do the trick, but that bloody minime is my enemy

thanks for the compliment though .....i now feel like a gorilla

 

[lurkerlurker]

Does the Dow look like a buy above 13,200 cash

I'm thinking this is a long term S/R level, and we are now above the 200 day moving average. The Fed has injected liquidity, and the bulls may be back. I don't think Friday is a good time to get long, but perhaps at the beginning of next week. I see we have failed to make a higher high today, but we've made a higher low.

I think longs above 13,350 (C) may be in order (break of 2 day high). However, we will have some long covering into the close tomorrow....

 

[catracho]

Loooks like LONGS are riskyy at mo...why ? See chart..imho the less risky play is a short near upper boundary, you can set stop close by, a break out to upside of the down trend would be a signal to go LONG..otherwise I would expect a test of lower boundary eventually

 

[Hook Shot]

Update ....

I think the next big move will be down after an 800pt rally at current prices (pre-mkt).
Pullback often retrace 25% of the move hence my 150-200pts decline

Timing Tool is the one though since we don't often get blazing streaks like 5ub in a row as is likely .... it does happen obviously but history teaches us it often leads to pbk.

My simple theory is the streak is unsustainable.. and we must expect a daily low to be taken out shortly ... today is unlikely (but possible ) but Friday is the first real candidate ?

Well looks like 5d streak of higher highs is about to fail and we are very close to that Friday down bar as mentioned yesterday... thurs lows of 169 with current quotes 190ish.

However, the market is confusing me..........

An unlikely event would be a run to test 300 then break thurs lows but that's the stuff of dreams....

Here's one... we still have not taken out highs of wb 13/8 at 338 I think and we only have one day to do it..... worth bearing in mind. Point is if we don't break that level we will have an inside week on the charts which sets up interesting possibilities for next week....

Market still feels okay* ..... making today a big day.... oh my gosh I'm a poet and...

Happy Tradying all


Kevin - just love the trading and "birds" analogy .... I often use the trading is like batting parallel but yours might be more universally understood :cheesy:

* Market feels okay cos we are still well well above the lows of 12500ish and the pace of the move down is wishy washy so far.... bring back the vol I say ...

 

[tune]

The car went against all engineering logic, but them stuborn German designers and engineers stuck with their plan of making a rear engine sports car and just kept on attacking the plan head on without getting distracted from their ultimate goal....

Considering that Porsche himself was well ahead with mid engined cars (Auto Union racers, the 550 and the 904 etc.) it does seem perverse to concentrate on endlessly tuning up what is basically a squashed Beetle. Try driving one of those things fast round a bend. But then again they do make the Cayman now. Can't bring themselves to offer a full blown version though. I guess that would be irreverant.

tune

 

[Hook Shot]

Lest I forget...........

Greenspan is rumoured to have said recently that he would have already lowered benchmark rates .......

Fed surprised the markets last Friday - I think ....and might just possibly do the same today ...... Who knows ?

I'm just waiting for my text from Uncle Ben .. I think he's still got my number but last weeks warning didn't arrive ... glitch probably... :cheesy:

 

[lurkerlurker]

HS, Oscar said that the charts foreshadowed a bullish fundamental last Friday. Is there similar evidence this time around?

 

[Hook Shot]

Maybe .... not sure..

HS, Oscar said that the charts foreshadowed a bullish fundamental last Friday. Is there similar evidence this time around?

I can say this ftse is looking pretty okay with a "gentle" pullback and could quite easily rebound strongly ...... I'm looking at a 10d chart......

Still confused .......... apart from the obvious set ups mentioned earlier

EDIT: Markets are waiting for something and I don't think it's the eco data

 

[Hook Shot]

4 Ftse watchers....

So far feeble bounce ... but providing it does not take out 290 then it remains vulnerable as others, more savvy than I, have already mentioned....

My earlier reference to a bounce was an intraday affair not meant to make new swing highs......

 

[Hook Shot]

@ Dow 236

Come on lets go to 169 - you know you really want to.......

 

[fibonelli]

sung to American Pie..

A short, short time ago...
You can just remember
How those CDOS used to make you smile
And you knew if you had your chance
That you could make those returns dance

And, investors, would be happy for a while
But sub-prime made them shiver
With every default they would quiver
Bad news on the home front
You couldn't make a placement

I do remember that you cried
When you heard that AHM had fried
And something touched you deep inside
The day the CDO died

So, bye-bye, mister CDO guy
You piled the paper on
When the market was high
And the 2 and 20 made your living so fine
Singing "CDOs will keep me alive
CDOs will keep me alive"

But you never saw the coming fall
That triple AAA was worth naff all
Cos Moodys didn't tell you so
Did you believe that lead was gold
That Alt-A would be never sold
And that incomes were real on the forms

Well now the writings on the wall
Your investors got a big shortfall
Now HRs got your number
Cos you couldn't get more dumber
You're now a lonely poor unwanted buck
With a c.v. but no real pluck
But you knew were out of luck
The day the CDO died

And we were singin
Bye-bye, mister CDO guy
You piled the paper on
When the market was high
And the 2 and 20 made your living so fine
Singing "CDOs will keep me alive
CDOs will keep me alive"

Source: PrudentBear's Chat

 

[lurkerlurker]

An inside week? How dull.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Break confirmed. 700 sell contracts just disappeared. I went long and covered for +1 net of spread. That was a little poorly executed, but par for the course with me. I'll try a pullback if we get one, but realistically it isn't going to happen. I'm not chasing this though - the R:R isn't there if I do.

 

[lurkerlurker]

I really need to stop. I thought I could trust myself to trade a pretty obvious breakout correctly, but no. If I had just risked the -13 I've just wasted, I could have set a sensible stop within the breakout range and still been long. On an unrelated note, does anyone notice how the CMC cash Dow quote can be moving up while YM bid/offer and last price are moving down? I don't get it.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Next week, I am going to paper trade the Dow. I'll post results to my journal.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Does anyone know the reason for the light volume today? 6pm, and we've not broken 70K yet.

 

[firewalker99]

Does anyone know the reason for the light volume today? 6pm, and we've not broken 70K yet.

Your eagerness to post seems to reflect your eagerness to put on a trade.
Which isn't really a good thing. Unless you want to be a full fledged scalper. And even in that case...

Low volume? It's Friday... plus we've had the figures. Nothing important coming up anymore. Besides, nothing shocking ever happens on a Friday (I should say rarely), so most likely this will just drift sideways or higher until we hit overhead resistance or have attained the normal daily range...