All trading systems fail

[Vaco]

My 44 systems combined have a sharp ratio of 2.66 , based on 9.5 years of backtesting.It can improve to over 3 in direct market and better execution.

To give you some insight, a ratio of 1 or better is considered good, 2 and better is very good, and 3 and better is considered excellent.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/sharpe_ratio.asp

The important bit is in red here, As you say you have gone live with small stakes I should probably ask you what your sharp ratio is since going live, however I am not even vaguely interested so its ok you just keep banging on about your last 9.5 years.

On a side note when i was 21 I had six years of back testing that showed I was gonna get laid 3 times a week.

To give you some insight, once or better is considered good, twice and better is very good, and three times and better is considered excellent.

Performance hasn't lived up to the back tests now that i'm an old fart though

 

[tomorton]

Whether you''re trading or not ODT, 44 systems is unnecessarily complicating the job. The job is just to make money, not to be absolutely right all the time.

Lots of work has been done to find the optimum / minimum portfolio size to diversify risk in equity holdings. In that situation, if I remember correctly, it has turned out to be a surprisingly low number of equities. I suspect the same of systems.

1 egg in each of 44 baskets is probably little better than 4 eggs each in just 11 baskets.

 

[FX Bandit]

Whether you''re trading or not ODT...

Whether? WTF?

There's really someone who isn't sure?



Tom, I've got a great investment opportunity that would be perfect for you. I don't want the "insiders" to realise the secret''s out, so PM me so I can make you rich.

 

[tomorton]

Well, he says he's trading with small stakes......

Forgive me, but I've got to go and get some lunch.

 

[FX Bandit]

Well, he says he's trading with small stakes......

Forgive me, but I've got to go and get some lunch.

Don't do that! This offer is limited - if you don't take the place reserved for you I will have to let it go to someone else!

 

[oildaytrader]

The important bit is in red here, As you say you have gone live with small stakes I should probably ask you what your sharp ratio is since going live, however I am not even vaguely interested so its ok you just keep banging on about your last 9.5 years.

The original system made up of 11 subsystems were traded on a live account from January 2009 to June ,2009.The results were in line with expectations, and Sharp ratio on live was above 2 .

33 more systems were developed and added in 2009 to 2010.

 

[forker]

Systems that based signals off indicators will produce different results on backtesting than live. I would think the success factor being mentioned here wont be as good real-time

 

[meanreversion]

Would anyone care to define what they would consider to be a "good" system? In other words, what parameters would you use to determine whether system A is better than system B? ODT probably looks only at Sharpe ratio (because he read it on the internet). Are there any other metrics that people might use?

 

[MrGecko]

Are there any other metrics that people might use?

When I was trading full-time I used p-values

 

[oildaytrader]

Would anyone care to define what they would consider to be a "good" system? In other words, what parameters would you use to determine whether system A is better than system B? ODT probably looks only at Sharpe ratio (because he read it on the internet). Are there any other metrics that people might use?

Sharpe ratio , sortino ratio,cagr/dd,calmar ratio

Some novice read about all these ratios on T2W FROM odt.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sortino_ratio

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/calmarratio.asp

It has to perform in fpucky markets.

http://www.hathersage.com/programs/dislocation_2008.html

 

[oildaytrader]

Would anyone care to define what they would consider to be a "good" system? In other words, what parameters would you use to determine whether system A is better than system B? ODT probably looks only at Sharpe ratio (because he read it on the internet). Are there any other metrics that people might use?

Mr Sucker

Any system Dr ODT uses has to survive in difficult market conditions.If a system makes money in good times , but blows out in difficult times, trader will be history.

Any system which survives and makes a profit is a good system.


Dr ODT
PHD in trading markets.
University of Financial scammers

 

[FX Bandit]

Mr Sucker

Any system Dr ODT uses has to survive in difficult market conditions.If a system makes money in good times , but blows out in difficult times, trader will be history.

Any system which survives and makes a profit is a good system.


Dr ODemoT
PHD in A$$hole Studies and Make Believe.
University of Made Up Bullsh1t

 

[meanreversion]

Why ODT is allowed to continue with his pollution of t2w, I have no idea.

 

[FX Bandit]

Why ODT is allowed to continue with his pollution of t2w, I have no idea.

For Teh LULZ!

No really, God knows. It's amazing.

 

[meanreversion]

His existence has made me consider quitting this site. I don't imagine anyone will care, I'm not going to start a thread like NRothschild "I'm off", but I get less and less from this site now. There is the occasional tidbit, but my oh my is there the biggest pile of dogsh1t to wade thru ...

 

[oildaytrader]

His existence has made me consider quitting this site. I don't imagine anyone will care, I'm not going to start a thread like NRothschild "I'm off", but I get less and less from this site now. There is the occasional tidbit, but my oh my is there the biggest pile of dogsh1t to wade thru ...

You are addicted to message boards and the quality of t2w , and can't quit.:

 

[forker]

ODT, i am interested, did you get a dried buffalo turd upon your completion of the bullsh1t university or an honorary gold plated baboons ass?

 

[FX Bandit]

His existence has made me consider quitting this site. I don't imagine anyone will care, I'm not going to start a thread like NRothschild "I'm off", but I get less and less from this site now. There is the occasional tidbit, but my oh my is there the biggest pile of dogsh1t to wade thru ...

It's good to read what he writes. The amount of cr@p he spouts is staggering - truly unbelievable. You wouldn't have thought it possible if you hadn't seen it with your own eyes.

So in years to come, you can tell people that there really was an ODDemoT, and that you knew him. They will gasp, they will say that it cannot be, that the greatest of the great crap-spouters was just a legend, invented by traders to scare their children when they refused their greens.

With a weary but nonetheless satisfied smile you can show them the record of your exchanges. Beautiful women will faint, and strong men weep, as they view for themselves the works of the mythical bullsh1ter. And they will marvel at you, knowing that you confronted the tidal wave of utter crap, but did not turn aside.

 

[Hilarymannah]

FX Bandit,....What an epitaph LOL

 

[oildaytrader]

ODT, i am interested, did you get a dried buffalo turd upon your completion of the bullsh1t university or an honorary gold plated baboons ass?

There was only one ODT , the only man with balls to foretell you "all your trading systems will fail, before you lose money on them"