Would you trade a coin toss?

[trendie]

the 1,000 points a month were scary. Was only a test - no real money. DOH.

as per recent post here, I suspect that some trades ending the day positive were stop-lossed-out intra-day !!

it was a throw-away experiment.
hope you guys, if interested enough, can be more thorough.

edit: I mean 100 points a week !!!
the 1,000 points a month are not for public consumption.

 

[smullaney]

Trendie, I wasn't specifying anything you may have said re 1000 points but a more general comment on the ads you see on different web sites.

"as per recent post here, I suspect that some trades ending the day positive were stop-lossed-out intra-day !!" - as previously stated, anything that broke the intra-day stop were stopped...that is why in the results you see lots of -55s (50 point stop hit plus the 5 point spread). No cheating here

blackcab - bingo.

Pete - you are right about the 100 point sample size - way way too small to say anything. The reason I started the 100 point experiment was to see the difference larger stops made. In the 100 point sample some entries are in italics - they are the entries that were stopped out in the 50 point sample but stayed open due to the larger 100 point stop. I was thinking of the 100 point stop as a pseudo stop-free experiment....

I don't quite agree with your thoughts on a truely random market and the resulting net loss. The point is the money management will hopefully mean that your total loss is less than your total win. So in the long run you even out to 50:50 win:loss but as long as the average win is at least 5 points (spread) above your average loss then you are a net winner.

An alternative approach might be to only trade "news days" and flick a coin before the news comes out!!!

 

[Effkay]

smullaney, a bit off topic here...but trading news days is earier than that, prior to news put an oco order 10 ticks away from the price to buy and to sell, stp 20 pts, profit target 30 on whichever gets hit

 

[smullaney]

Effkay, looks like you are well versed on this.

BTW - heads came up earlier today for a buy. Not looking like it will be a good day for random land.

Pound and euro just stopped out so that's -55 each....

 

[peto]

An alternative approach might be to only trade "news days" and flick a coin before the news comes out!!!

Yes I've often thought that should work, trouble is that sometimes the market swings wildly the 'wrong' way just after the news, before deciding that the news is good/bad.

Might work better with guaranteed stops of the sb variety, but the sb'ers are probably wise to that one and refuse to accept such orders just before the news.

pete

 

[Effkay]

smullaney why -55?

 

[smullaney]

stop is 50 points, assumed spread is 5. comes to -55.

 

[Effkay]

ok which rules are you following?

 

[smullaney]

I am running two scenarios, 1 with a 50 stop and 1 with a 100 stop. Between 9 and 10 in the morning (depending upon when I get around to it) I toss the coin. So today the 50 point stop has been hit, hence the -55. 100 point stop still going....

 

[smullaney]

...so in the morning I open positions for both scenerios at the same time....

 

[henry766]

lemmings

 

[JumpOff]

snort!

 

[Effkay]

Ok that proposed system whips you around like there is no tomorrow!!! What I propose is using an hourly chart instead of a 5 minute chart. Will try tomorrow!

 

[Roberto]

lemmings

snort!

Don't think so, guys: I think lemmings squeal, don't they?

 

[trendie]

Don't think so, guys: I think lemmings squeal, don't they?

I thought lemmings went splat !

 

[trendie]

Ok that proposed system whips you around like there is no tomorrow!!! What I propose is using an hourly chart instead of a 5 minute chart. Will try tomorrow!

Effkay,

are you changing/narrowing the stop-loss rules for the hourly tests ?
I would like to follow real-time tomorrow out of curiosity.
what rules will you be using please.

thanks

 

[smullaney]

I think the noise they makes depends on the coin toss on the way down

 

[Effkay]

The rules are simple:

1)at 7am toss a coin, heads = buy, tails = sell.
2)on the hourly chart if the 7-8 bar, breaks the high of the 6-7 bar, and you have a heads, buy, if it breaks the low, and you have a tails sell
3) 20pt stop, 40pt take profit
4)when stopped out, toss again and trade using the next hourly break, if there is no break.

If there is no trade triggered, toss again.

Don't trade any positions after 7pm and close all positions at 9pm.

 

[Effkay]

edit, use the range of the 6-7am bar as your stop, and twice that as your take profit. If you have two losing trades in a row, stop trading regardless of time.

 

[TheBramble]

I thought lemmings went splat !

All depends on how fast they're moving. Some whistle a bit first...

Is this all thinly veiled allegory?

{Glad to see some serious trading discussion on this thread at last}