Most traders underperform to a coin flip day trading bot

BE Trader

Junior member
A trader eventually comes across the statistic that 90% of traders fail to make money when trading the stock market. This statistic deems that over time 80%, 10% break even and 10% make money consistently.

The other day I have been talking to skeptics who mentioned “no matter what you do in trading in the end it’s no better than a coin flip”. What a great idea I thought… A coin flip trading bot would be a really good baseline to see how well you perform in the market.

To see how a coin flip would actually perform I wrote a coin flip trading bot and backtestested the results since 2016 using BreakingEquity.
Since the bot cannot flip a coin I am using random(0,1)🤖
Coin Flip Conditions.png

Conditions
  • Trading $QQQ
  • Random enter and exit on 30min intervals
  • No stop loss
  • Always exit EOD (no hold over night)
  • Each year had 100 simulations to smooth it out
  • $10,000 trading capital

The Results​

Pretty good for a coin flip. At least I expected it to perform worse than that…
Screen Shot 2022-01-29 at 12.47.22 PM.png

Did you lose to a coin flip any of these years? Why?
 
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