A trader eventually comes across the statistic that 90% of traders fail to make money when trading the stock market. This statistic deems that over time 80%, 10% break even and 10% make money consistently.
The other day I have been talking to skeptics who mentioned “no matter what you do in trading in the end it’s no better than a coin flip”. What a great idea I thought… A coin flip trading bot would be a really good baseline to see how well you perform in the market.
To see how a coin flip would actually perform I wrote a coin flip trading bot and backtestested the results since 2016 using BreakingEquity.
Since the bot cannot flip a coin I am using random(0,1)🤖
Conditions
Did you lose to a coin flip any of these years? Why?
The other day I have been talking to skeptics who mentioned “no matter what you do in trading in the end it’s no better than a coin flip”. What a great idea I thought… A coin flip trading bot would be a really good baseline to see how well you perform in the market.
To see how a coin flip would actually perform I wrote a coin flip trading bot and backtestested the results since 2016 using BreakingEquity.
Since the bot cannot flip a coin I am using random(0,1)🤖
Conditions
- Trading $QQQ
- Random enter and exit on 30min intervals
- No stop loss
- Always exit EOD (no hold over night)
- Each year had 100 simulations to smooth it out
- $10,000 trading capital
The Results
Pretty good for a coin flip. At least I expected it to perform worse than that…Did you lose to a coin flip any of these years? Why?
Last edited:
