wot happened next? No:5

[TheBramble]

.... but unlike bramble who states everyone is right...maybe i am misquoting........there is only one right and thats the market.....

No you didn't exactly misquote me Mark, but your quote below probably more succinctly encapsulates the point I obviously didn't make too well.

....right or wrong at least you used thought process to draw conclusion

It's the thought processes and rationale behind each traders analyses that I personally find interesting. The fact that you do rather well at this is commendable. But equal kudos, as you say, to any who made the attempt based on a valid technical analysis. Regardless of outcome.

And the market is only 'right' in that there is only one outcome from any one point in time going forward. But before that development occurs, there are (clearly) many possible interpretations of what might unfold.

 

[carlosd]

ii)so everyone sees volume and they think....aha...pros buying lets have a tickle...but i dont think there will be many at all.some will double up even ;-)...so you can see you have to see inside the volume and price....not isolate from the outside.so heres some questions for you.

a) who is gonna buy this up....there are not that many weak hands who would take it....most are scared by the previous action...the others weak hands have just been stopped out or dumped ...or are still holding long positions.so that leaves the pros...so what would be the benefit to the pros in buying it up themselves.....why would they take it back up to the highs.....they wouldn't it presents no values whatsoever....the benefit gained through faking in a few more longs at the highs is massively outweighed by the fact they are already sitting short and it would cost them to buy against there positions!!..then they would have to take it down from an even higher price again to be able to favour from the outcome.the truth is the pros have the weak hands exactly where they want them now so they will take advantage of the condition now.

Nice analysis Mark.
I was thinking along the lines of the gap close to sucker in the longs, but that explains it.

 

[SOCRATES]

Dear Barjon, I refer you to my posts numbers 32 and 38 of this thread.

This is in view of what has subsquently transpired.

I hope and expect you see the merit in the specific precaution I recommended at that time.

I hope and expect you will see how it is the price opened at the close and then lifted a touch and how if you had wanted to close the position there it would have locked in a profit....or....if you had waited.....the stop would have locked in a profit anyway.

This would have left you in pocket and now free to take advantage of all the wonderful gyrations that followed.

Very Kind Regards.

 

[SOCRATES]

Your patience will be rewarded

As for you, Wasp, I shall be expanding on my explanation for your benefit, as promised, later.

 

[TheBramble]

Dear Barjon, I refer you to my posts numbers 32 and 38 of this thread.

This is in view of what has subsquently transpired.

I hope and expect you see the merit in the specific precaution I recommended at that time.

I doubt many would bother checking these posts you reference Bertie, nor would I normally, but as you've been kind enough to take the trouble to draw our attention to them - I did.

You mentioned spread and bid without making any specific sense. You mention placing a stop below 'the blue candle'. Which one? There were a few on the chart. If you meant the large blue candle where Jon had marked the Long entry, your recommendation would have stopped out our poor friend much lower than had he placed his/her stop just below the tail of the gapped candle as I recommended.

You also go on to suggest that the next session would see oscillation. We'll never know as it's a daily chart and all we get is the OHLC. It may or may not have oscillated, but looking at that bar, the range was relatively large and the Open/Close range quite a large percentage of the overall High/Low - so perhaps not too much oscillation after all?

Once again, nothing to shake a stick at in your posts which in any way addresses the topic of the thread or your (quite usual) glee in managing to find something in your posts which 'show' in retrospect you have nailed it, but which for the rest of us leaves us wondering if you really seriously believe you're fooling anyone.

It's not so much the waste of time that irritates - we all choose how we spend our time of course, it's more the implicit assumption on your part that anyone takes you seriously.

I didn't take you to task at the time of the post over the above howlers as it wasn't worth the trouble, but to have you crow over your 'expert call' when none was ever made in reality is just asking for it.

And I have given it to you Sir - both barrels - point blank.

Yes sir. Stow the mizzen and hoist the cabin-boy. Blow tanks and ruffle me feathers again.

Ululations As Usual.

 

[barjon]

er, I think we knew what Socrates was getting at, Tony, even though he may have mixed up the blues and purpley reds (purpley reds - good gawd i'd better use something more readily described in future )

So far these threads have been mercifully free of "knocking copy" and I do hope they will stay on that path even though it may require a bit of tongue biting from time to time. Pretty please

good trading

jon

 

[TheBramble]

Sorry Jon, can you undelete the post just deleted please?

It's not "knocking copy", but gets right to the heart of something Mr. Marcus mentioned about people being led the wrong way. He was referring to those who do it with positive intent but with insufficient skill or knowledge.

In this instance we have deliberate obfuscation in order to appear knowledgeable, but with little to no real content and certainly no positive intent. If this was an example of it 'doing exactly what it said on the tin' - the tin wouldn't exist.

If you're asking us all to allow pure BS and not to challenge it and to bite our tongues I need to ask 'For what purpose?'.

If you genuinely want to keep these specific threads purely on topic then you'll need to get rid of those posts that evoke such responses - and not just the responses.

Gurus fall into the same category as sacred cows - to some they are to be faithfully adored without question - to others, they're just raw meat for hamburgers.

 

[SOCRATES]

Wasp, refer to post number 65, above....either chart will do.

Now, in addition to what Mr Marcus has commented, which is very comprehensive indeed.....look carefully at the 13 candles preceding the final one at the top with the huge top shadow.

Look at candles 3,4,5,6 and 7 and the volume attributable to them....it iis clear from the narrow spreads and volume that the price is being forced up....but....the campaign to force up the price is being interfered with by participants who are giving nuisance...causing all of them to have toptails.

The next thing that happens is that in bar 8....prices are quickly marked down...why ?....simple...to give everybody a fright ...to induce shorts...to take out the nuisance...and to reaccumulate whatever is available...and now notice carefully that the price progression to the top has all the toptails significantly edadicated...culminating in the big one...that signposts an impending decline. OK ?

 

[barjon]

Sorry Jon, can you undelete the post just deleted please?

It's not "knocking copy", but gets right to the heart of something Mr. Marcus mentioned about people being led the wrong way. He was referring to those who do it with positive intent but with insufficient skill or knowledge.

In this instance we have deliberate obfuscation in order to appear knowledgeable, but with little to no real content and certainly no positive intent. If this was an example of it 'doing exactly what it said on the tin' - the tin wouldn't exist.

If you're asking us all to allow pure BS and not to challenge it and to bite our tongues I need to ask 'For what purpose?'.

If you genuinely want to keep these specific threads purely on topic then you'll need to get rid of those posts that evoke such responses - and not just the responses.

Gurus fall into the same category as sacred cows - to some they are to be faithfully adored without question - to others, they're just raw meat for hamburgers.

tony

Well since you deleted it, I suppose you have the right to have it re-instated :cheesy:

I'm not seeking a totally sanitized thread. I just know from past experience, as you must, that the moment posts start criticising the messenger rather than the message things get de-railed very quickly. So I meant "knocking copy" in the sense of knocking the messenger, not that people shouldn't feel able to challenge the message (politely of course ). Hope that's clear.

With that in mind you might care to look at your re-instated post again and see if you think it's primarily about the message or the messenger?


good trading

jon

 

[toro168]

mr marcus,

Can I ask two questions please ?

1 Do you ever get it completely wrong and lose money ?

2 Is this the holy grail?

thanks for your great posts
toro

 

[SOCRATES]

Wasp, I have just rmembered to tell you....you ought to ...since you express an interest...look again at my post on this thread number 32...:cheesy: ...in which I reply to Barjon and in which I mention the oscillation expected...which is what actually happened of course........the second part of the post is particularly relevant.

Kind Regards.

 

[tsuntzu]

Mr Marcus, I know your a busy chap but I was interested about the development of your stock chart analysis. I recall you saying it was only about three years ago that you had been introduced to trading itself and in that time had only traded futures. As you show an enviable understanding, I was wondering if you found your analysis of stock charts a natural progression from futures charts. I know there will be those who say a chart is a chart and it shouldn't matter about the instrument, but I feel it helps to have an appreciation of the underlying subtleties of each instrument. I wondered if you studied the relationship between volume, price and open interest for futures and have gone on to apply this to stock charts or if there was more to it than that. Also I was wondering, if indeed you had spent time considering open interest changes, whether you had read the material written by Ken Shaleen on the subject.

 

[TheBramble]

With that in mind you might care to look at your re-instated post again and see if you think it's primarily about the message or the messenger?

It's primarily the former. With a bit of the latter.

If you care to have Bertie take all his personal remarks ("know your place" etc.) out of all his posts - I'll reciprocate.

 

[fxmarkets]

Great Thread Cheers All.

Cheers for your work/time Mr M. Socs, Bramble.

" Money Posts."


Fx.

Good Eatin

 

[fxmarkets]

Splitlink and a screw loose?

Split a great many wannabe traders do not even get to hear the terminology even which Mr M is expressing , let alone any further analysis discussed in public...

Take a big raincheck mate....

 

[tsuntzu]

I was wondering if there was any chance outside of the mudslinging if you could answer my post Mr M. I would have thought you would have found it a more appropriate use of your time and of benefit to all those who are so grateful about your input.

Mr Marcus, I know your a busy chap but I was interested about the development of your stock chart analysis. I recall you saying it was only about three years ago that you had been introduced to trading itself and in that time had only traded futures. As you show an enviable understanding, I was wondering if you found your analysis of stock charts a natural progression from futures charts. I know there will be those who say a chart is a chart and it shouldn't matter about the instrument, but I feel it helps to have an appreciation of the underlying subtleties of each instrument. I wondered if you studied the relationship between volume, price and open interest for futures and have gone on to apply this to stock charts or if there was more to it than that. Also I was wondering, if indeed you had spent time considering open interest changes, whether you had read the material written by Ken Shaleen on the subject.

 

[trappertom]

To all posters.

Do you, really, believe that this person is a reliable source of chart analysis? It does not seem that way to me but it takes all types. Those who wish to defend him are at liberty to do so, of course.

Good trading to all of you

Split

As you clearly haven’t bothered to verify that for yourself, why don’t you read Barjon’s commentaries of Mark’s chart reading below.

Wot2:
Wow, not surprising that there were only a couple of brave souls after Mr.Marcus’ master class. I hope everyone has locked that post away in a fireproof safe with other priceless jewels.

Mark, you take my breath away (again). The price progressed (and is progressing) as you anticipated albeit that the initial bounces were a bit higher and we didn’t get the inverted head and shoulders. Anyone who cares to call up a longer term chart will see that your reverse engineering was pretty much on the spot too. Your conclusion about the hvlc event that there was news - yes, the budget - and a key level - yes, £20 and smack on the blue line you drew, too. Wow, indeed.

Wot4:
Thanks to everyone who had a go. I hope contributors (especially Charlton who tabbed the down move and the bounce level) will excuse me for concentrating on another master class from mr.marcus.

Nope, there’s no spy-bots or trojans been in my computer, I’ve been scrupulous in not giving any hints as to what the instrument was , nor have I done anymore than pass the time of day with mr.marcus - so he must be a wizard then.

I’m quite sure that the greater the experience of the readers of this thread then the greater will be their admiration of Mark’s peer into the future - getting on for four months worth, I must remind you, with still more yet to unfold. Once again, I hope everyone appreciates the pure gold in Mark’s analysis. If all that’s not a tour de force then I don’t know what is.

I think it’s worth going through Mark’s narration against what did unfold. The price hung about for two days (maybe a little less than Mark anticipated) before falling to Mark’s blue line support where it held for six days - onward to Mark’s key number support (yes £18) where it bounced a bit higher than anticipated - then the dump down leg with only very brief support at Mark’s first red line level until it screamed to a halt virtually smack on Mark’s second red line support - the bounce here was stronger than Mark anticipated but, albeit in a more complicated fashion, the price went on to make Mark’s anticipated double bottom. Amazing

Wot5:
First a comment relating to mr.marcus’ initial post of his final three (and thanks mark for such a thorough analysis - spot on as we’ve come to expect.

 

[rols]

Hats Off Gentlemen - A Genius!

Surely only a fool would fail to see that Mr. Marcus has much value to offer, not only through his experience and knowledge but also through his humility - a rare quality in any profession.

Therefore I suggest he utilise the 'ignore' function with alacrity and cast forth his pearls amongst eager ears.

IMO Playground antics are a necessary evil of these boards and any censorship must be avoided at all costs. Besides it is most entertaining and beats Big Brother hands down.

However, disrespect, personal attacks and deliberate malevolence towards any member FOR WHATEVER REASON (and yes we all have bad days and this is not an excuse for behaving like a C) should be treated with the contempt it deserves.

Nobody is beyond scrutiny or constructive criticism but surely everybody deserves a little recognition for their efforts, good or bad.

Now let us all move on to Wot happened Next no.6.....

 

[timsk]

To All,
I think everyone who has been following the WOT series owes a small debt of gratitude to barjon for starting - and continuing - a very instructive and entertaining string of threads. Hey Jon, if you ever decide to turn your back on trading, may I suggest you try your hand at being a quiz master!

Very quickly they have become a vehicle for mr. marcus to demonstrate his extraordinary talents. Some folks may have thought that there is little point posting their own take on Jon's charts for fear of looking rather silly when Mr. M then posts his stunning analysis. I certainly had second thoughts! Then, once people do post their thoughts and observations, they open themselves up to criticism from any and every direction. Everyone has a right to express their opinion, although I am very aware from personal experience on another thread over the weekend, just how hard it is to bite your lip when comments are posted which - to paraphrase barjon - 'criticise the messenger rather than the message'. So please peeps, let's all try to focus on the post and not the individual poster. As for Mr. M's analysis, I've not yet studied it closely. However, I have printed his chart and showed it to my wife who has absolutely no interest in trading. I then showed her Jon's 'result' chart. Her jaw dropped, her eyes nearly popped out of her head. "Blimey" was her initial comment, quickly followed by "I hope this bloke is a good friend of yours!" Fancy a curry mr. m'?
:cheesy:
Tim.

 

[standaman]

...sometime soon tim ...on a weekly curry bender at the mo.....hehe....everyone should post mate...as you know i go out of my way to encourage people to find there own way....and just help people to find the right questions and answers for themselves....make sure they keep directed in the right areas....i love seeing everyones posts and ive never ever put anyone down on this thread.ive also never ever said look at me how great am i.......ive just posted what i thought people would find helpful....so i have no idea where this egotistical comment from splitlink came from and calling my analysis superfluous twaddle is just plain silly...specially when he himself admits he cant be bothered to read it as its too long!!!

to add another reason why i am stepping back is i dont want to put others off from coming forward...it would totally defeat the reasons why i have posted in the first place...to help others progress..the exercise is to get people to do what i do for themselves....i get more of a buzz seeing others progress than i do from trading these days...the way it should be as we know anyway....

I will tell you what SPLIT, (and anyone else out there with your mindset) I want to say THANKS! I am THANKFUL for people like yourself because its YOU and everyone else like you that drives these markets and will ALWAYS drive these markets in the fashion that makes it profitable for the very few like Mr.Marcus who take the time to A TRULY Understand himself, B. TRULY Understand others C. Be willing to throw out any ego and in the end truly be an upstanding human being. I say thanks to you, and on the other hand it makes me somewhat sad because I see so many people like yourself in this world, not just the trading world but the world In general and this Is exactly why this place is in the state it is. In reality you don’t want to learn how to trade, I don’t care what you say. Deep down its not the truth or there are alterior motives that will ALWAYS keep you from being truly successful in this business. This will continue to be the case until you honestly dig deep inside yourself (There is a 99% chance this will not happen) and that is ONLY THE START. I have seen quite a bit in this business and I have NEVER ran across a person like mr.marcus who is so honest, willing to help, SUPER hard working and in the end has actual true knowledge of how the market works and on top of all of this is willing to share some of it with the right people. In fact its UNHEARD of to ever find someone like this. I have paid countless amounts of money to people who come to find out pretend to know something but in reality know NOTHING. I have spent time with people who claim to be the top gurus in the world and in the end know next to NOTHING. Why do I even bother with spending time writing a post like this, sometimes I wonder myself. I know that the people who already know this sort of thing will understand it and the ones who don’t (the rest of the world) wont take the time to think about it or wont read it at all or will just get angry and make excuses for their behaviour. In the end I could really care less how people decide to live their lives, its none of my business. As long as you are not hurting others in the meantime then carry on living in a world that is not reality (at least not a healthy reality,) a world of no change of no GROWTH and of no personal achievement. I want to say thanks to a person like mr.marcus for opening my eyes to what can be achieved, what is POSSIBLE and what GREATNESS really is. Its not just about trading, its about life. I have been at this for a long time and to finally see a light at the end of the tunnel (a light as bright as the sun, not a damn flashlight that a GURU holds) the words THANK YOU doesn’t really sum it up and never will.

It doesn’t really amaze me anymore but it is quite interesting when something is STARING YOU RIGHT IN THE FACE and you still cant recognize what it is.


JRob