Wong trader sues Vantage

ACstudio

Active member
138 14
Seems the solution would be to not trade 50/50 shots and don't use brokers that carry inventory. If the 90% thing is true...seems the obvious solution is to NOT do what everyone else is doing.
 

neil

Legendary member
5,167 747
Seems the solution would be to not trade 50/50 shots and don't use brokers that carry inventory. If the 90% thing is true...seems the obvious solution is to NOT do what everyone else is doing.

Really:)
Have you tried it?
What was the result:) ?
 

darktone

Veteren member
3,992 1,044
If the 90% thing is true...seems the obvious solution is to NOT do what everyone else is doing.

Consider that psych might have something to do with it.
Dont use stops to manage risk.
Add to losers.
Generally do what most dont when most wont.

The 90% will likely look at that little lot shake their heads, so sounds good to me.
 

vol-guy

Newbie
7 0
FX brokers have a great information advantage in seeing all of their clients positions, and this data makes for great sentiment indicators if the 90% figure is actually true.
 

Trader333

Moderator
8,610 936
This presumes that most orders are already in the market and that most people don't use market orders which is not the case. As for why 90% lose, well a while back we had a member who was high up in a SB company explain that as a SB broker they really didn't need to manipulate anything as the behavior of their clients made it easy for them.

What most people did was to not close losing orders quickly enough so running up larger losses than they should have allowed coupled with taking a small amount of profit too quickly.

When you consider that all markets do not go straight up or down and that there may be retraces to entry points quite often, this hits people on a psychological level so holding a winning trade that eventually makes a good profit is not easy to do. The same applies to a losing trade that moves closer to breakeven a few times then goes back into more loss which people will tend to hold on to.

It really is very easy to see why most people lose when you consider the above behavior patterns in my view.
 
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CostaKapo

Active member
164 12
This presumes that most orders are already in the market and that most people don't use market orders which is not the case. As for why 90% lose, well a while back we had a member who was high up in a SB company explain that as a SB broker they really didn't need to manipulate anything as the behavior of their clients made it easy for them.

What most people did was to not close losing orders quickly enough so running up larger losses than they should have allowed coupled with taking a small amount of profit too quickly.

When you consider that all markets do not go straight up or down and that there may be retraces to entry points quite often, this hits people on a psychological level so holding a winning trade that eventually makes a good profit is not easy to do. The same applies to a losing trade that moves closer to breakeven a few times then goes back into more loss which people will tend to hold on to.

It really is very easy to see why most people lose when you consider the above behavior patterns in my view.

I agree with this, and for these reasons I believe ACStudio is a profitable trader, based one every discussion I have had with him and all his posts.
 

ACstudio

Active member
138 14
Although in the context of the thread AC you're an options guy not FX (unless you trade FX as well) so you do do it differently than 100% of FX traders :whistling

Good point....I made the assumption that the 90% was in reference to all traders. If I am incorrect and the discussion pertains only to 90% of FX traders then my answer would be "no I have not tried doing the opposite what the 90% of FX traders do as I do not trade FX markets as such...but I do trade some of their indexes and I'm fine there too ".....but then I still might suggest that to avoid being in that 90% maybe try avoiding whatever it is they tend to do or even do the opposite. Maybe the above post sheds some light on that problem.

And it occurs to me that saying "I'm doing fine" is really irrelevant to the discussion as any monkey could say "Well, you could have done better". So maybe it's better to ask...."Since whether or not I'm doing fine is irrelevant would anyone suggest that I instead do what the 90% are doing? Because the one thing that is NOT "In my dreams" and that is certain, is that I am not doing what most people do. So either way....Would I be better off in any scenario doing that same thing everyone else has been doing and maybe just work on not doing so badly, or do what they do and strive to be in that top 10%...or?"
 

fxmade2trade

Active member
229 6
I have seen ACs calls too if making $5.00 trades is called profitable I call it money for coffee:
When I had asked Costa to make 5 calls AC did it for him
These were his calls hmmmmmmmmm,
Originally Posted by ACstudio View Post
Ohoh me first....
1. SPY NOV14 195 calls will expire worthless.
2. UNG NOV14 23 calls will expire worthless
3. TLT NOV14 128 calls will expire worthless
4. EWZ NOV14 52 calls will expire worthless.
5. USO NOV14 34 calls will expire worthless.

And here is a freebee
6. There is a 16% chance that one of those will be wrong enough to roll or sell puts against to reduce risk or extend duration... And at least 4 of those will be manageable for 50% max profit before expiration.
 

ACstudio

Active member
138 14
I have seen ACs calls too if making $5.00 trades is called profitable I call it money for coffee:
When I had asked Costa to make 5 calls AC did it for him
These were his calls hmmmmmmmmm,
Originally Posted by ACstudio View Post
Ohoh me first....
1. SPY NOV14 195 calls will expire worthless.
2. UNG NOV14 23 calls will expire worthless
3. TLT NOV14 128 calls will expire worthless
4. EWZ NOV14 52 calls will expire worthless.
5. USO NOV14 34 calls will expire worthless.

And here is a freebee
6. There is a 16% chance that one of those will be wrong enough to roll or sell puts against to reduce risk or extend duration... And at least 4 of those will be manageable for 50% max profit before expiration.

Ye...looks about right so far. reward is a function of risk. If you understood those picks you would understand they were simply all based on 1 standard deviation moves of the underlying based on time and volatility at the time they were picked. With that information you can structure your risk reward ratio however you want.

And like I said before if you meant for there to be any requirements for your little challenge you should have mentioned them.
If you would like to do so then feel free...I'll change the numbers to fit whatever risk/reward you want...and the success or failure will be wrapped right around those probabilities.

As I recall the discussion was about probability based trading....if you don't like those picks then tell me what you want and I'll be happy to accommodate.
 
 
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