Wong trader sues Vantage

[neil]

article from todays Times newspaper about losing percentage of FX traders and conflict between trader and broker. Plus that "90% of traders lose" quote-again.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/columnists/louisecooper/article4242509.ece

 

[ACstudio]

Seems the solution would be to not trade 50/50 shots and don't use brokers that carry inventory. If the 90% thing is true...seems the obvious solution is to NOT do what everyone else is doing.

 

[neil]

Seems the solution would be to not trade 50/50 shots and don't use brokers that carry inventory. If the 90% thing is true...seems the obvious solution is to NOT do what everyone else is doing.

Really
Have you tried it?
What was the result ?

 

[Trader333]

I am unable to read the article as I don't have a subscription to them.

 

[ACstudio]

Really
Have you tried it?
What was the result ?

Yep..doin' fine...thx for asking.

 

[neil]

Yep..doin' fine...thx for asking.

In your dreams

 

[darktone]

If the 90% thing is true...seems the obvious solution is to NOT do what everyone else is doing.

Consider that psych might have something to do with it.
Dont use stops to manage risk.
Add to losers.
Generally do what most dont when most wont.

The 90% will likely look at that little lot shake their heads, so sounds good to me.

 

[ACstudio]

In your dreams

Soooo...are you suggesting I do what the 90% do?

 

[vol-guy]

FX brokers have a great information advantage in seeing all of their clients positions, and this data makes for great sentiment indicators if the 90% figure is actually true.

 

[Trader333]

This presumes that most orders are already in the market and that most people don't use market orders which is not the case. As for why 90% lose, well a while back we had a member who was high up in a SB company explain that as a SB broker they really didn't need to manipulate anything as the behavior of their clients made it easy for them.

What most people did was to not close losing orders quickly enough so running up larger losses than they should have allowed coupled with taking a small amount of profit too quickly.

When you consider that all markets do not go straight up or down and that there may be retraces to entry points quite often, this hits people on a psychological level so holding a winning trade that eventually makes a good profit is not easy to do. The same applies to a losing trade that moves closer to breakeven a few times then goes back into more loss which people will tend to hold on to.

It really is very easy to see why most people lose when you consider the above behavior patterns in my view.

 

[CostaKapo]

This presumes that most orders are already in the market and that most people don't use market orders which is not the case. As for why 90% lose, well a while back we had a member who was high up in a SB company explain that as a SB broker they really didn't need to manipulate anything as the behavior of their clients made it easy for them.

What most people did was to not close losing orders quickly enough so running up larger losses than they should have allowed coupled with taking a small amount of profit too quickly.

When you consider that all markets do not go straight up or down and that there may be retraces to entry points quite often, this hits people on a psychological level so holding a winning trade that eventually makes a good profit is not easy to do. The same applies to a losing trade that moves closer to breakeven a few times then goes back into more loss which people will tend to hold on to.

It really is very easy to see why most people lose when you consider the above behavior patterns in my view.

I agree with this, and for these reasons I believe ACStudio is a profitable trader, based one every discussion I have had with him and all his posts.

 

[CostaKapo]

Soooo...are you suggesting I do what the 90% do?

Although in the context of the thread AC you're an options guy not FX (unless you trade FX as well) so you do do it differently than 100% of FX traders :whistling

 

[ACstudio]

Although in the context of the thread AC you're an options guy not FX (unless you trade FX as well) so you do do it differently than 100% of FX traders :whistling

Good point....I made the assumption that the 90% was in reference to all traders. If I am incorrect and the discussion pertains only to 90% of FX traders then my answer would be "no I have not tried doing the opposite what the 90% of FX traders do as I do not trade FX markets as such...but I do trade some of their indexes and I'm fine there too ".....but then I still might suggest that to avoid being in that 90% maybe try avoiding whatever it is they tend to do or even do the opposite. Maybe the above post sheds some light on that problem.

And it occurs to me that saying "I'm doing fine" is really irrelevant to the discussion as any monkey could say "Well, you could have done better". So maybe it's better to ask...."Since whether or not I'm doing fine is irrelevant would anyone suggest that I instead do what the 90% are doing? Because the one thing that is NOT "In my dreams" and that is certain, is that I am not doing what most people do. So either way....Would I be better off in any scenario doing that same thing everyone else has been doing and maybe just work on not doing so badly, or do what they do and strive to be in that top 10%...or?"

 

[fxmade2trade]

I have seen ACs calls too if making $5.00 trades is called profitable I call it money for coffee:
When I had asked Costa to make 5 calls AC did it for him
These were his calls hmmmmmmmmm,
Originally Posted by ACstudio View Post
Ohoh me first....
1. SPY NOV14 195 calls will expire worthless.
2. UNG NOV14 23 calls will expire worthless
3. TLT NOV14 128 calls will expire worthless
4. EWZ NOV14 52 calls will expire worthless.
5. USO NOV14 34 calls will expire worthless.

And here is a freebee
6. There is a 16% chance that one of those will be wrong enough to roll or sell puts against to reduce risk or extend duration... And at least 4 of those will be manageable for 50% max profit before expiration.

 

[ACstudio]

I have seen ACs calls too if making $5.00 trades is called profitable I call it money for coffee:
When I had asked Costa to make 5 calls AC did it for him
These were his calls hmmmmmmmmm,
Originally Posted by ACstudio View Post
Ohoh me first....
1. SPY NOV14 195 calls will expire worthless.
2. UNG NOV14 23 calls will expire worthless
3. TLT NOV14 128 calls will expire worthless
4. EWZ NOV14 52 calls will expire worthless.
5. USO NOV14 34 calls will expire worthless.

And here is a freebee
6. There is a 16% chance that one of those will be wrong enough to roll or sell puts against to reduce risk or extend duration... And at least 4 of those will be manageable for 50% max profit before expiration.

Ye...looks about right so far. reward is a function of risk. If you understood those picks you would understand they were simply all based on 1 standard deviation moves of the underlying based on time and volatility at the time they were picked. With that information you can structure your risk reward ratio however you want.

And like I said before if you meant for there to be any requirements for your little challenge you should have mentioned them.
If you would like to do so then feel free...I'll change the numbers to fit whatever risk/reward you want...and the success or failure will be wrapped right around those probabilities.

As I recall the discussion was about probability based trading....if you don't like those picks then tell me what you want and I'll be happy to accommodate.

 

[CostaKapo]

I have seen ACs calls too if making $5.00 trades is called profitable I call it money for coffee:
When I had asked Costa to make 5 calls AC did it for him
These were his calls hmmmmmmmmm,
Originally Posted by ACstudio View Post
Ohoh me first....
1. SPY NOV14 195 calls will expire worthless.
2. UNG NOV14 23 calls will expire worthless
3. TLT NOV14 128 calls will expire worthless
4. EWZ NOV14 52 calls will expire worthless.
5. USO NOV14 34 calls will expire worthless.

And here is a freebee
6. There is a 16% chance that one of those will be wrong enough to roll or sell puts against to reduce risk or extend duration... And at least 4 of those will be manageable for 50% max profit before expiration.

You at no time asked me to make any "calls"

The problem with the internet is that everything is recorded.

First off let me say FX traders are just as intelligent as option traders you sound very ignorant with that statement, and offensive to the many FX traders on this site. I do both however and am very successful! So if the Karma I have is instant keep it coming!MY TRADES ARE UP!
Why don't you do me a favor you Exceptional trader, and make five calls for me and all the other peons of the FX world.

Page 18 of the Karen thread in options - you quoted another reply from someone else.

 

[ACstudio]

Ye it was originally aimed at rstu but I couldn't resist jumping in to illustrate the irony (which was completely lost and wasted) in challenging someone on a thread about a probability trader to make 5 trading calls...... Well duh...... Why not make it 100 or 1000?...the more the better. The outcomes of the calls made will eventually wrap around the probabilities at which they were placed.

No guidance was given as to any expectations or returns. What do you want? It doesn't matter. The probabilities will play out given enough occurrences.

 

[fxmade2trade]

I was just being a brat, both of you are very intelligent traders.

 

[ACstudio]

I was just being a brat, both of you are very intelligent traders.

It's cool. I'm pretty hard to shake up.
How about AMZN Iron condor 5$ wide with short strikes at 335 and 287. Risking 3 to make 2 to on the weekly. If we think there is more downside risk maybe make the put strike 2.50 wide...alla Costa. Nice pick I think.

 

[CostaKapo]

It's cool. I'm pretty hard to shake up.
How about AMZN Iron condor 5$ wide with short strikes at 335 and 287. Risking 3 to make 2 to on the weekly. If we think there is more downside risk maybe make the put strike 2.50 wide...alla Costa. Nice pick I think.

I ended up doing a bear call spread to avoid 2 extra transactions. Worked out - will expire worthless tomorrow and I will keep 100% premium and avoid 2 more transactions.