Why do ppl make assumptions about the future...

[Dispassionate]

..that are more optimistic than the actual probabilities?

 

[crystalballs]

Hope?

 

[chump]

because hope springs eternal ? LOL...there is something in this actually. Reason it out. If you think the past is the best you can have what kind of stance can you have about the future if you've already experienced the best that life can offer...More of the same ,or something of an anti climax appear the best options. Neither on the face of it might seem to be an overwhelming motivational reason to get out of bed for most people. However , if they hope the best is yet to come then they're more likely to hit the carpet running Monday mornings don't you think. So we're talking about an explanation based in survival and motivation to do it. A maintenance of the body to enable it to keep on keeping on...sounds like a song coming on to me.

 

[Vaco]

..that are more optimistic than the actual probabilities?

If people didn't then we would never have things like new highs and dotcom bubbles

 

[oatman]

Assumptions?

..that are more optimistic than the actual probabilities?

Not assumptions........PREDICTIONS
It's called confidence.

 

[TheBramble]

..that are more optimistic than the actual probabilities?

I'm not too sure all people do. Some do.

Not many traders do. At least, not many consistently successful traders do.

Assignment of probabilities to potential future developments, yes. But assumptions, no.

 

[Dispassionate]

Does it not depend if you are in the glass half empty or the glass half full brigade?

I don't think so. Even if a person is hopelessly depressed or negative I think there is still a propensity to be optimistic/deluded about certain outcomes.