Oi FB, less of the sucking up. Lol. Or I'll be banging my head as I go through doors.
Not superior knowledge m8, I just choose the futures because it normally means I only have to look 2 to 4/5 charts at the same time. You choose the shares and are good in your understanding and more importantly, trading of those charts. Now we both owe each other a pint when we meet up. Lol.
One guy I know from when I used the Updata software used to have around 36 charts open at the same time. Now that would scramble my brain. He was a bit of a high roller and his share broker allowed him to short shares long before it became fashionable to do so simply because he traded large and often.
I remember a big daily drop on the ftse after a few days of heavy buying and rises. And the day in question was on a Updata presentation day (ask Pat about this (Obi) he and Shane were speaking that day at Brighton. Anyway this guy stands up to speak. He wasn't presenting that day, just in the audience. But was asked a question by the guy that owns Updata, David Linton.
So this guy stands up and addresses the audience and says "Today wasn't a very good day trading day for me I lost £40,000.
(I think it was 40, might have been more)
Then he laid out, how he traded.
I spoke to him in private after the presentation was over and my first question was 'why?'
At first he simply said 'I f****d up' (Apologies for the language, but after losing that amount of money in a day I reckon he is entitiled to swear).
I asked him again and he said he had so many charts open he couldn't close all his trades quick enough and he had trouble getting through to his broker. Each trade had to be closed off one by one. (Note that he said he messed up. He didn't blame the market, or his broker or the wife. Nor anything else. (though the broker was in my opinion, a party to shoulder the blame)
He said he should have seen it coming but got too greedy.
Don't feel too sorry for him though, he made bundles on the 3 previous days.
Anyway after all that. I think I follow your question FB.
Yes, on days when there is a large gap on opening, the proper futures will go the same way as the sb's. But...
They may not gap as much as the sb price and in general have to journey down (or up).
On days like the example both sb's and real you would have no chance of trading it because it's there before you, so you would lose those first few minutes, and sometime not have the chance after that either.
(Though if you had held an overnight position you would be laughing your socks off...or crying in your milk!!!)
You can have some fun though when the real price does journey down or up. Either trade that or take the opposite on the sb as it has to swing back to come in line. It's great fun when the sb's get screwed up. doesn't happen often enough though.
I get particular enjoyment when they (sb's) predict an opening direction and get it wrong, and I have already decided to go the other way and trade the second the market opens.
Have noted one comparision though.
In the late afternoons when there is little volume in the real market and less trading taking place. The real spread can sometimes be wider. So the sb price is only out by 1 or 2 points.
So you can get a better feel for the real market. But of course both real and sb are prone to wild jumps and in my view is harder to trade as the market is manipulated around. (So much for real electronic trading. Big buys and sells get triggered and it screws everything up.)
Good Fortune.
Options.
