Which index/forex/commodities to use?

[No Quarter]

Hi there

I'm, like probably many others, trying to see if I can create buy and sell rules based on multiple criteria, that returns a profit. At this time, I can, if there was no spread But there is, so I have to work on...

The question I have is the following. My rules give the highest return when movements up or down are as long and high as possible in a 1 min graph. Maybe not surprising. But is there statistics anywhere that shows which index/forex/commodity that has the the longest and highest movements? I need big long waves, not just small ripples Does any statistics per index/forex/commodities like that exist, or has anybody in here any views after having tested this?

Hope this makes sense.

Thanks

 

[tomorton]

I have looked at this though on the extra-day time-frame.

Yes, you can see which prices are up over 1 week, 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, whatever you like. Yes, you can see how much in % they are up over each period. But within any time period, some will have been so volatile they would have chopped any position to death. I started counting how many times each chart had crossed a given MA. Also how many preceding weekly bars each chart shows that are not cut by a given MA. Other TA plus indicators could be added ad infinitum.

With good entry signals, price is more probably going to go your way. But having 2 positive entry criteria or 20 will not tell you which trade will fail. Its how you manage the position that makes the profit, not the best entry price or smoothest chart.

 

[tomorton]

PS: Stop daytrading.

 

[timsk]

. . . Does any statistics per index/forex/commodities like that exist, or has anybody in here any views after having tested this?

Hope this makes sense.

Hi No Quarter,
Yes, it makes perfect sense. Unfortunately, I very much doubt you'll find what you're looking for. That is to say, there will be data available that tells you what you want to know, but there isn't really a market that can be relied upon to behave consistently in the way you require. The reason being that it's relatively easy to trade profitably if price moves up and down in nice long waves. When it does - it's great. But think of the markets as a giant griddle whose job it is to shake out as many people as passible. It can't do that by behaving the same way all the time so, inevitably, there are periods where is just bobs about in a narrow sideways range. Whether you're looking at a M1 chart, M10, M30 or 4 hourly etc. is unlikely to make much difference. So, whatever market you trade in whatever timeframe, you're going to have to embrace the periods when there are no big long waves and ensure the 'chop' doesn't inflict too much damage on your PnL.

I sympathise with the problem you face as it's the one big weakness in my own trading and something I continue to struggle with. For what's worth, the two instruments that exhibit the 'best' price action (for me) are the Dax and oil (Brent Crude). Also, if you've not yet seen them, check out dbphoenix' threads as this particular issue is one that he addresses.
Tim.

 

[No Quarter]

Thanks for input, except "PS: Stop Daytrading"

But no answer to my question yet:
But is there statistics anywhere that shows which index/forex/commodity that has the longest and highest movements?

 

[timsk]

Thanks for input, except "PS: Stop Daytrading"

But no answer to my question yet:
But is there statistics anywhere that shows which index/forex/commodity that has the longest and highest movements?

No Quarter,
Open a M1 chart across a range of markets and apple the Average True Range (ATR) indicator using the default settings. The one with the highest readings is, in theory, the one you want. But, like I've said already, you're on a hiding to nothing as this only tells you which instrument(s) had the largest movements in the recent past - it won't tell you which ones will have them in the future.
Tim.