Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Pat494 said:
Ta again
An unusually large divergence between the S&P and Dow today ??
Probably means nothing


It's explained by the Dow being price weighted as shown on the Indexarb link posted by another just above. So today, CAT caused the Dow lag.

CAT would have little effect on S n P, mathematically anyway.

Geo.
 
Treller said:
It's explained by the Dow being price weighted as shown on the Indexarb link posted by another just above. So today, CAT caused the Dow lag.

CAT would have little effect on S n P, mathematically anyway.

Geo.

It couldn't be I suppose that some of the bigger Dow companies have overgrown themselves GM for instance and money is leaving them for smaller more dynamic companies in US AND abroad ??
 
SOCRATES said:
You get plenty of that on this thread, Racer. But the truth is too valuable to give away just because someone asks for it.
LOL :LOL:

You, of course, know "the truth" don't you Albert ! However, it's far too valuable for you to divulge to anyone unless they acknowledge your genius and genuflect to your omniscience :LOL:

Now shouldn't you leave in the chauffered Rolls to the airport to depart on your private 747 to reach your Falcon 100 moored in Hamilton or is it time that Matron dispensed your next dose of medication. :cheesy:
 
Pat494 said:
It couldn't be I suppose that some of the bigger Dow companies have overgrown themselves GM for instance and money is leaving them for smaller more dynamic companies in US AND abroad ??

Oh I think that is a factor for sure. My controversial and unsubstantiated opinion for some time has been that there is capital flight out of US markets in favor of, um, well, - just about any other market in the world! Judging by the ytd % gains elsewhere. FCB buying of treasuries has tumbled also from what I have been reading just this weekend.

Anyway, getting back to the Dow, people forget that it's only 30 (half of which really dont matter becuase their weights are low) and to keep those price weights in mind. Trading it day in and day out, you can see the programs hitting the heavyweight components. As I write this, I note a thread elswhere here where technicians are discussing the best Dow indicators. Not being that technically inclined I would answer that thread to simply put up the 10 or so heaviest components in mini charts and then watch DIA and GE. I consider GE to be the most important company in America market impact-wise and if it is lagging a rally, up on a selloff, or otherwise diverging, you better be paying attention. I do not enter any daytrade in the Dow futures contract without checking GE and crude one last time before pushing the button. I am more short term and a tape reader type I guess. Also, none of what I use for the Dow would work with the cap weighted S n P 500.

Geo.
 
GE is a small weight on the Dow at $34

CAT was a significant weight on the Dow being in the top ten at now $49 (having lost nearly 10% and $5 on Friday)

The ones that are heavy weights on the Dow are:

MMM $75
MO $73
AIG $63
BA $66
CAT $49
XOM $55
IBM $83
JNJ $64
PG $54
UTX $51

If any of those are big movers then they will tend to influence the direction significantly
Of those I consider IBM and XOM to be well worth watching
 
XOM to report earnings on Thursday this week, as it has a big influence over both the S&P and Dow this could be the catalyst for direction until the end of the year

There has been a big sell off in the energy sector lately.
"Huge block sales over the past few days of Exxon Mobil (24 million shares on Tuesday worth $1.4 billion) and Chevron (6.2 million shares Thursday worth $353 million) and crude oil's drop Thursday to below $60 a barrel for the first time in three months, investors are increasingly skeptical the sector can extend its three-year winning streak."

BP shares sold off after earnings, will XOM do the same?

Big Oil bears brunt over gas prices

Hurricanes seen sending oil earnings sharply higher
 
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PAT494

The Dow and the S$P both have targets to hit before a turn after last weeks movement the S&P was closer hence the divergence Friday. They are now equidistant from their respective targets
 
Morning all ( evening Joules ) another fine week !!
Thanks DC I think I may know what you mean.
Opening up today by the look of it
 
On second thoughts it just may be near the top but 6.30 GMT they will be back from lunch and we will see...........
 
The market seems to quite like the appointment of Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman.
How will he try to
1. Tackle the trade gap ?
2. Temper rising debt ?
Accelerate interest rate rises maybe ?
 
Pat494 said:
The market seems to quite like the appointment of Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman.
How will he try to
1. Tackle the trade gap ?
2. Temper rising debt ?
Accelerate interest rate rises maybe ?

Print, print, print, and when that doesn't work, print some more !
 
DuPont Swings To 3Q Loss On Tax Chg, Announces $5B Buyback
WILMINGTON, Del. (Dow Jones)--DuPont plans to repurchase $5 billion of its shares within about 18 months, including $3 billion worth from Goldman Sachs (GS), as part of an effort to boost shareholder value. The chemicals giant also reported a third-quarter loss as it took a tax hit after returning foreign profits to the U.S.

In a press release Tuesday, DuPont reported a loss of $82 million, or 9 cents a share, after earning $331 million, or 33 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter.

Excluding items, the company earned 33 cents a share.

On Oct. 13, DuPont put the adjusted figure at 29 cents a share, in line with the average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call.

Quarterly sales rose 2.3% to $5.87 billion from $5.74 billion.
 

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yes, i've been building a short position on rallies since the slope of the MA reversed a few weeks ago.
 
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