Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[counter_violent]

mmm and to think we are only part way into October !!

 

[Racer]

US indices well down again today.

How concerning is the corresponding fall in the dollar and the lack of a flight to value in treasuries ?

In the face of this difficulty for the indices there is the continuing rhetoric from the Fed re inflationary worries.

Significant ?

Yes I saw that comment earlier today, they are giving lots of warnings about inflation and interest rates moves and is the market finally taking the hint.. only because the big money has taken its time to move out first!

 

[leovirgo]

I don't buy this at all - by the time you see the bus coming it's usually already too late and you've missed it ! This is knee-jerk trading. Also it represents almost instantaneous interpretation of what you see which can and does change from minute to minute.

Another method of TWYS is to have a plan. If the Index moves up/down and crosses this threshhold then I'll go long/short either with a target of x or with a trailing stop of y away from the actual price.

.

We're talking about the same thing. Please read my earlier posting. TWIS is I trade what I see. Now I've seen a beautiful down trend, confirmed by price for at least three key levels.
TWIS did not go short above 10520. Entered short below 10520, more than 250 points in the ride! Had the price broke out abover 10575, TWIS was happy to go long. TWIS is all about flexibility and trend following. Besides, TWIS is not TWYS because I can't see what you see. Price is the absolute indicator.

 

[leovirgo]

Fill in the blank please

only because the big money has taken its time to move out first!

Katrina hit the US coast on 29 August. Yet DOW went up to 10700 in early September from the lows of 10350.

Fed raised rate on 22 September. Yet DOW went up to 10600 from the lows of 10350.

All those timebombs exploded this week..yesterday it touched 10225. Yet ....DOW will go up to -____________?????

 

[kriesau]

We're talking about the same thing. Please read my earlier posting. TWIS is I trade what I see. Now I've seen a beautiful down trend, confirmed by price for at least three key levels.
TWIS did not go short above 10520. Entered short below 10520, more than 250 points in the ride! Had the price broke out abover 10575, TWIS was happy to go long. TWIS is all about flexibility and trend following. Besides, TWIS is not TWYS because I can't see what you see. Price is the absolute indicator.

This cannot be described as Trading What I See. This is Trading Based Upon My Interpretation Of Price Action which in turn uses indicators or signals to determine direction.

I use support and resistance levels linked to other technical signals to interpret market direction. So, for example, I went short at 10495, 10449 and 10250. I closed my 10495 short at 10330 for 165pts, my 10449 short is still open and I was stopped out on my 10270 short by last nights late rally which cost me 32pts.

I am trading based upon my interpretation of various technical and fundamental trends and signals and so are you. We are probably using a different mix of indicators/signals and therefore our conclusions will probably vary. However TWIS is a misnomer - it is trading what you interpret not what you see.

 

[leovirgo]

This cannot be described as Trading What I See. This is Trading Based Upon My Interpretation Of Price Action which in turn uses indicators or signals to determine direction.

I use support and resistance levels linked to other technical signals to interpret market direction. So, for example, I went short at 10495, 10449 and 10250. I closed my 10495 short at 10330 for 165pts, my 10449 short is still open and I was stopped out on my 10270 short by last nights late rally which cost me 32pts.

I am trading based upon my interpretation of various technical and fundamental trends and signals and so are you. We are probably using a different mix of indicators/signals and therefore our conclusions will probably vary. However TWIS is a misnomer - it is trading what you interpret not what you see.

Cool

 

[karmit]

so how's it looking today? - looks stuck to me at the moment

hmm.. being a friday ppl might be inclined to sell-off late?

 

[karmit]

so how's it looking today? - looks stuck to me at the moment

hmm.. being a friday ppl might be inclined to sell-off late?

i.e if it doesn't succeed in breaking the resistance level before 20:00 BST...

 

[LongandWrong]

so how's it looking today? - looks stuck to me at the moment

hmm.. being a friday ppl might be inclined to sell-off late?

i'm eyeing a 18:30 head fake in the futures up to 10350 then the 19:00 move south south south.....

obviously now that i've said that.........

 

[mickandpete]

Katrina hit the US coast on 29 August. Yet DOW went up to 10700 in early September from the lows of 10350.

Fed raised rate on 22 September. Yet DOW went up to 10600 from the lows of 10350.

All those timebombs exploded this week..yesterday it touched 10225. Yet ....DOW will go up to -____________?????

Dont forget oil
Oil up Dow down Oil down Dow up for how many weeks??
This week oil down to preKatrina levels Dow ????

 

[leovirgo]

Any idea for this week?

 

[badtrader]

Any idea for this week?

Do you

 

[twiggytwo]

dow analysis

Any idea for this week?

Often-- -- the U. S. market discounts good or bad news within 48 trading hours so the next move on Monday for the Dow may be up ( 10,375 ? )
regards twiglet

 

[SOCRATES]

We're talking about the same thing. Please read my earlier posting. TWIS is I trade what I see. Now I've seen a beautiful down trend, confirmed by price for at least three key levels.
TWIS did not go short above 10520. Entered short below 10520, more than 250 points in the ride! Had the price broke out abover 10575, TWIS was happy to go long. TWIS is all about flexibility and trend following. Besides, TWIS is not TWYS because I can't see what you see. Price is the absolute indicator.

I have just spotted your post. You are quite correct in what you say. I agree with you.

 

[Racer]

FOMC minutes tomorrow should get a bit of movement



Calendar

 

[kriesau]

Any idea for this week?

Current range seems to be circa 10260 - 10350.

If the market breaks down through 10260 then we could see a further 200pt decline to circa 10060 where there is strong support. If it breaks up through 10350 then there is major resistance to overcome at 10400.

I'm still holding my 10449 short open and have moved my trailing stop down to lock in profit. If the market continues to head south I would look for a potential bounce below 10100 and then a possible long to climb aboard a reaction rally.

Good luck this week

 

[aspex]

Has the DOW found another pothole to trip it up?

 

[SOCRATES]

What fascinates me is how after 7200 posts the way the Dow is heading for 2005 has not yet been sussed.

Considering we are getting closer to the end of the year, is there any hope the matter will be resolved before then I wonder ?

 

[aspex]

SOC,
A great mind should never fascinated by the vagaries of the indefinable.
But then you know that already.
May I as one of lesser wisdom suggest that the level is most unlikely to stay the same. It may well rise and it may well fall. Possibly even a speed wobble.
Hope this helps you with your dilemma.

 

[SOCRATES]

SOC,
A great mind should never fascinated by the vagaries of the indefinable.
But then you know that already.
May I as one of lesser wisdom suggest that the level is most unlikely to stay the same. It may well rise and it may well fall. Possibly even a speed wobble.
Hope this helps you with your dilemma.

Thank you for your concern.

I do not have a dilemma, because all of it is obvious.

And because all of it is obvious, what fascinates me is the amount of energy expended here in recognising the significance of what is patently obvious.

This is because it is going through a secondary phase of doing what it is going to do which I predicted long ago, which is inevitable, and when it happens, if you all blink, you are apt to miss it.

For this reason, it would be better to have the eye on the ball and not the ball in the eye, I do respectfully submit.

I took the precaution of getting tucked in early.