Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[roguetrader]

but I HAVE managed to figure out that Rudeboy appears to dislike Kriseau (and vice versa), Kris isn't enamoured of Soc (and vice versa).... it's getting rather like some sort of soap opera. Isn't all this bickering a little beneath everyones dignity?

indeed DaveJB, I;m sure it furnishes newbie traders with a great insight into that all important level of discipline necessary to make it in the trading game.

 

[karmit]

hmm... my "extremely bog standard newbie TA" says that the DOW will retrace to somewhere around 10320 in the next 2 weeks, before "thinking" about the next direction.... most probably - up.

"extremely bog standard newbie TA" means a quick look at the EOD chart, no volume considered, no
other variables considered... yeah I know... sounds pathetic ... but its a newbie anyway!
btw - I'm short at the moment on DOW, and have moved down my "stop loss" after y'days mini-slide.

Cheers,
karmit.

P.S: took me a while to figure out that gas prices/ Greenspans comments/ CPI/ PPI/ payrolls etc
have nothing much to do with the DOW movements.. at least not as much as I had thought
previously.. so beginning to love TA more than ever ... hopefully more insightful analysis after
a few more months!

 

[kriesau]

Kris, you have never give reason before hand and you have never fully exposed your true position to this thread (unless it suits you). You also use 'Dave', he's good, but so transparent?

If I (or anyone else) posts a trade on this board it is not necessary to explain all the reasons why - they can be many and varied. However I don't post the result of any trade that I have made unless I have previously posted it at or around the time that I placed it. I'm not seeking to prove anything to anybody on this board - my trading performance is only accountable to my bank balance !

However I am interested in what other people are trading and what their views are on the market etc so what information I provide is reciprocal to that process.

I don't know what your agenda is here other than to attack, demean or harass other posters. I don't 'use Dave' or anybody else for that matter - frankly I don't even have a clue who this 'Dave' is or what I 'use' him for.

Why don't you just focus on your own trading activities and if you have something interesting, relevant or sociable to contribute then thats great. Otherwise just let other people interract with each other without resorting to these juvenile tactics.

 

[Bigbusiness]

Perhaps he means this Dave:-
www.mgnet.karoo.net/rodneypics.htm

 

[kriesau]

I for one am obviously on a different planet, as I truly haven't a clue what this remark means (obviously given my name I rather hope this is a reference to some other dave), but I HAVE managed to figure out that Rudeboy appears to dislike Kriseau (and vice versa), Kris isn't enamoured of Soc (and vice versa).... it's getting rather like some sort of soap opera. Isn't all this bickering a little beneath everyones dignity?

The Dow is currently, by my reckoning, in a sideways movement between the prices I previously stated, the most likely direction for the next leg would be up imo as a continuation of the prior trend looks more likely (to me) than a reversal. Anyone explain using bog standard TA why the $INDU chart should be regarded as particularly bearish?

Dave

I could not agree more. We are all here to get some benefit and enjoyment through exchanging views and information about trading the Dow. The deviation from that activity only occurs when someone starts attacking, denigrating or patronizing other posters. We've had a couple of good weeks since Socrates quit this board on May 16th but since he reneged on this and reappeared, the old pompous, patronizing and denigrative posts have started all over again.

Rudeboy ( significant choice of name perhaps ! ) then re-appears to join him in this charade. Maybe they have nothing better to do with their time or their lives than hang out on a number of threads to harass and attempt to denigrate others.

If they stay off the board (as Socrates deceitfully proclaimed that he would) or confined any contributions to constructive and informative posts, then there would not be this recurring climate of abuse and recrimination. I am not interested in participating in this but I am also not going to put up with it when it occurs. I'm not inclined to put up with aggressive, pompous and provocative people in the real world and don't see why the same behavior in cyberspace should be tolerated either.

If everyone contributes informative, intelligent and sociable posts then their should not be any problems.

 

[roguetrader]

Perhaps he means this Dave:-
www.mgnet.karoo.net/rodneypics.htm

Only if he's really Trigger.

 

[DaveJB]

Good, that's a relief at least... the last time I ignored my name floating about ("they can't mean me..." I kept saying) it turned out I was being incorrectly identifed for heinous crimes <g>

Karmit - okay, thanks for having a go! Newbie bog standard can often work quite well, it's when the conviction that there are secret indicators (that always get it right of course) kick in that it all starts getting silly... you end up looking at a chart going up and find all sorts of reasons why that secretly means it will go down.

I hink I'd want to see it break below about 10420 or so, and below 10400 to be sure that it was genuinely bearish rather than just swinging through the current 100 pt or so range. Short term I'd be more inclined to go long and have a stop ready in case this isn't just the bottom of another swing in the consolidation pattern.

I vote for RT's version of Dave by the way....

Dave

 

[roguetrader]

The Dow is currently, by my reckoning, in a sideways movement between the prices I previously stated, the most likely direction for the next leg would be up imo as a continuation of the prior trend looks more likely (to me) than a reversal. Anyone explain using bog standard TA why the $INDU chart should be regarded as particularly bearish?

Hi DaveJB, as you will see from this post made last weekend, I have not been particularly bearish on the market.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=181679&postcount=4377

However, what has to be noted is that the INDU has shown the most relative weakness of the major indices, both the SPX and the COMPQ have pushed above their April highs, while INDU has been rangebound. INDU is bullish imho not by abundance of buyers, but by a lack of sellers, this is evidenced by its failure to break out of the range. My belief is the lack of sellers is due to the strength exhibited by the COMPQ during the past month, effectively scaring them off.
If, as I described in this post.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=180841&postcount=4297

the bearish candle printed on the COMPQ yesterday leads to the correction I have expected then I see a COMPQ target of 2018, this may be all the re-assurance sellers need to enter the INDU, for that reason I would not be surprised if the next move on the INDU is down.

 

[JillyB]

it's getting rather like some sort of soap opera. Isn't all this bickering a little beneath everyones dignity?
Dave

I agree Dave and I don't think there is any need for it.

This thread is for those involved, or interested in trading the Dow - we are here to try and help each other, with our thoughts and analysis of the technical charts, or the fundamentals involved that day and for the vast majority of the time we do just that. There are some great participants in this thread and a lot of very useful analysis and information is posted, so let's not spoil it with unnecessary back-biting and bickering.

We have an excellent thread going here and there are some really positive things about it ,such as the way the more experienced traders are happy to help the newbies (post 4535) and on top of that we have a little bit of social banter in between to lighten the trading day and that''s just how it should be, so can we please put an end to the sniping and squabbling once and for all.

Let's face it, at the end of the day we're all trying to achieve the same goal - to consistently make money out of the market - so let's try and work together on this, instead of against each other.

 

[Minder]

Hi DaveJB, as you will see from this post made last weekend, I have not been particularly bearish on the market.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=181679&postcount=4377

However, what has to be noted is that the INDU has shown the most relative weakness of the major indices, both the SPX and the COMPQ have pushed above their April highs, while INDU has been rangebound. INDU is bullish imho not by abundance of buyers, but by a lack of sellers, this is evidenced by its failure to break out of the range. My belief is the lack of sellers is due to the strength exhibited by the COMPQ during the past month, effectively scaring them off.
If, as I described in this post.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=180841&postcount=4297

the bearish candle printed on the COMPQ yesterday leads to the correction I have expected then I see a COMPQ target of 2018, this may be all the re-assurance sellers need to enter the INDU, for that reason I would not be surprised if the next move on the INDU is down.

I would expect some cushion up move before the bloated trade & budget figures hit on Friday 10th. Won't be pretty.

 

[Pat494]

Friends

I agree Dave and I don't think there is any need for it.

This thread is for those involved, or interested in trading the Dow - we are here to try and help each other, with our thoughts and analysis of the technical charts, or the fundamentals involved that day and for the vast majority of the time we do just that. There are some great participants in this thread and a lot of very useful analysis and information is posted, so let's not spoil it with unnecessary back-biting and bickering.

.

Nice sentiments JillyB. If only this was a perfect world !!

Hope your trip to Herm wasn't washed out by the rain, It drizzled here in the West Country most of the day.

Hope you got your Dow comp on. ( I was leading yesterday until Bluewave pointed out Sharkey's mistake. Oh well)

 

[wasp]

Quite why SOCRATES and RUDEBOY haven't been banned yet is beyond me. 95% of arguments and deviations from the point are started by these two, and apart from the spammers, this would be a decent trading forum.

The reasons I joined this site have been replaced with two ****** looking for and starting arguments on most of, what could be, interestring threads.

Like the majority of the 35k+ members, I'm off....

 

[wasp]

can we go back to the point of the thread now?

 

[JillyB]

Nice sentiments JillyB. If only this was a perfect world !!

Hope your trip to Herm wasn't washed out by the rain, It drizzled here in the West Country most of the day.

Hope you got your Dow comp on. ( I was leading yesterday until Bluewave pointed out Sharkey's mistake. Oh well)

Herm was great. One shower while we were all at lunch, then the sun decided to come out for the rest of the afternoon. Made the last boat too, which was good.

Came home late and found my order on the Dow had been filled at 10450 - so 132 points (minus spread). All in all an excellent day, I'd say. :cheesy:

(Apart from the headache on Saturday morning Can't even remember what that cocktail was called now, but it tasted wonderful!)

 

[frugi]

Wherever it's going, I think we can expect more volatility in the coming days?

 

[SOCRATES]

Wherever it's going, I think we can expect more volatility in the coming days?

And bullish expectation.

 

[JillyB]

I would agree here.

A very strong line of support around 10450 now seems to have been established from which it is bouncing higher each time. Only a close below 10400, would suggest that this has been broken in the short term and I can't see that happening.

However, how long the consolidation between 10450 and 10560 will continue before it breaks out is hard to say, but it does seem increasingly certain that the breakout will be in an upward direction.

Still 110 point consolidation zone is still a good area for scalping points intraday.

 

[SOCRATES]

Jilly, I have in the past seen this sort of caper go on in the Dow for three months before a breakout has occured.

 

[Trading Shed]

Wave count

Just a thought on the Dow.

On Chart 1 I have done a wave count from the high to the low of the recent down move. Although 3 is just marginally lower than 1 and 4 just marginally lower than 2, they should still be valid.
Assuming the wave count is valid and 10,000 was the end of wave 5, at that point (point 5) 'a' and 'c' could have been 'predicted' using Elliott theory together with fib ratios. (or so my book says!).
It does seem remarkably accurate.

Following from that, on the second chart is where we are now. Again, if the wave count is to be deemed accurate, we could be at point 'a' and could be moving towards 'b' and 'c'.

This would go against the general thoughts of a bullish flag forming, and would be bearish.

Chart 3 also shows that we are still in the 50% fib retracement area, with the last close being below it and, in theory, only a push above 10609 would then be bullish.

What do you guys think?

I am relatively new new to Elliott theories, expecially combined with fib and welcome any comments.

 

[kriesau]

Actually the current consolidation range over the last 2 weeks is more like 200pts, with support at 10400/420 and resistance at 10580/600.

I'm also bearish, particularly with the trade deficit/budget deficit figures due out on Friday but we could first see a move up during the early part of the week before it makes a downward break through support at 10400.