Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[dacheif]

Using elliot wave analysis......expect dow 17000 in the months ahead......relax....this bull mkt has along way to go.....the ftse is goin to make new all time highs and beyond....relax......btw.....my name is Don Wolanchuk im from canada.....

 

[User]

On Friday we went higher then 10800 but closed below. We also closed below 10800 yesterday. Today we are not even touching 10800 as of yet. I wonder if 10800 is the top area for this rally we've seen from 10400. Could this be the reversal?

I've entered short at 10792 with a tighter stop loss then normal.
So far a quite and tight range similar to yesterday.

 

[FetteredChinos]

aye, i'll take that too.


short 10795.

looks like a nice setup for a Short Sell Day .

ah, cycles...

 

[FetteredChinos]

10,730 would do me for covering and tentatively entering a long...

 

[FetteredChinos]

adding short 10,825..

looks like a big "M" formation forming

quality english there..

 

[FetteredChinos]

and more at 10,835...

stop is at 10,900.


average price is 10,818.

target for covering raised to 10,760

 

[FetteredChinos]

this site is getting slooooower..

added a final short at 10,845...

70pt move off the lows.. looks good for a reversal from here..

average price now 10,825...

 

[destiny]

FetteredChinos
can i ask how many £'s per point you trade?

 

[FetteredChinos]

hmmm, been having a look at indicators again

i know, i know...


having a look at the 3 day cycle combined with slow stoch on 15 min charts (standard settings. dont think it matters if they are tweaked or not)


when we have ascertained what sort of day it should be, taking the trade in the direction of the pattern and the FIRST crossover of the stochs in the direction of the pattern, holding to the close. seems to have yielded some rather useful results over the past 10 days..


some 50 pointers on a regular basis


i know 10 days is statistically insignificant, but it might be worth looking at.

FWIW, doing it this way would have triggered a short at 10,845 to hold into the close...

 

[FetteredChinos]

usually trade about £5 per point per position.. so currently £20 a point short..


825 is break even...

 

[trendie]

FC, where can I get more info re: 3-day cycle.

the phrase is so generic, google is having probs finding anything of significance.
is it anything similar to what Tom Houguard (sp) uses ?

help much appreciated.

 

[FetteredChinos]

kind of trendie...

Tom H uses delta and his own modifications of it... (since the original was fairly toss IMHO)

ill have a look and dig up a link for you.

FC


edit:- found a document that you may find useful.


please bear in mind that it doesnt always work... and the key is working out when we hit a "high" or a "low" in sequence..

this is where i think the stochs may help.

 

[dacheif]

using clx and ew and fibonacci analysis you wont have to guess about the future course of the market useing those prehistoric useless price trend habits. best of luck.... btw...price triggers are the quick way to the poorhouse......ask yourself this question.....if you bot in at 1095 and knew you were goin to 1400 on the sp 500 you would be making a fortune without having to burn youself out with all these whipsaws....if you cant say yes to that then you are doing something wrong.....good luck....

 

[FetteredChinos]

thanks cheif (sic)

helpful.


and what whipsaws?

 

[dacheif]

thanks cheif (sic)

helpful.


and what whipsaws?

the stops for a loss......unless of course you dont get those....best of luck (sic) :>)

 

[FetteredChinos]

hmm, didnt quite sell off as i had hoped yesterday...market is pretty resilient.. would expect 70 points from 10850 => 10780 region


still short at the moment.

looking for an early dip to buy into the expected Buy Day. (10780 perhaps)



gonna see if the first Stochs cross works.

 

[ChowClown]

The 6-day cycle seems to be holding up well at the moment, the cycle high projected yesterday; next projected low 21st Feb, but this is relative to price action at that time, which could be well above recent highs, we'll see.

The last 6-day cycle low was around 10665. Looking to short below this and to hold for a while. Daily chart still looks bullish to me for now though.

After fiddlin with Gann levels i have S/R at the following (45 thru 360 degrees):

L1: S=10785; R=10889
L2: S=10733; R=10942
L3: S=10682; R=10994
L4: S=10630; R=11046
L5: S=10579; R=11099
L6: S=10527; R=11152
L7: S=10476; R=11205
L8: S=10425; R=11258

Good trading all.

 

[FetteredChinos]

6 day cycle??

Si, can you do me the honours please

 

[User]

An upside move should bring us to test 10850 if 10815 is taken out.

We finished the day higher on Tuesday. The market also ended above 10800. We did find resistance at 10850.

For Wednesdays action: Travelling through 10860 should see us playing with 10900. A breach of 10830 should see us tackling the area of 10800.

The Vix fell once again and is really suggesting that the market is complacement. A top should be in place by this week if not by early next week.

Buyers are optimistic and we have low specialist short sales (the lowest since the data is compiled) and that's a very bullish sign. However the market may be overbought and could we be running out of steam on the upside.

The shorting activity of the smallest of the small guys is at its highs, they are usually dead wrong at bottoms and tops. So this may suggest further upside movement before institutional money starts to sell this market.

Good luck

 

[FetteredChinos]

10780 hit..


out for +45 from yesterdays short

small position long now in..

will add to it on a stochs cross in the first hour or so.

FC